ahmetdouas

its 10,000 with crazy restrictions. Once they ease this number will go up. They can get away with it for now but as the weather gets warmer and touristic countries start to open, will be harder to.

Cyprus is planning after March 1 allowing all passengers with negative test before departure and rapid one after landing to skip quarantine all together. We can assume Spain and Greece will do similar. Health is a priority until countries run out of money.

Even with the local lockdown now weather is cold so easier for people to 'stay home'. In march? Not so much.

I don't think hotels for SA and BR is much of an issue to manage can't be more than a few flights a day to meet at the arrival gate.

alex67500

Spanish government were quoted on the entry restrictions thread saying that they wouldn't open up to countries outside the EU until 70% of their adult population were vaccinated, and the ETA is end of September.

With Merkel's proposal to block all arrivals from outside the EU, I doubt residents of Britain will be allowed anywhere this summer.

KARFA

Indeed. Throw in the fact the vaccination program in the EU is really not progressing very fast and I can’t see most EU counties welcoming tourists for a while yet.

ahmetdouas

not true. Individual nations can override policies. Greece already allows uk residents in. Poland allows uk nationals in as well, without even needing to quarantine at all with a negative test. Cyprus plans 1 March. So from there you can go to any schengen country you want. Spain will open in the spring.

NickB

Perhaps I misunderstood what you are trying to say but I fail to see the relevance of touristic countries opening to the feasibility of a hotel quarantine system. People are not going to go away on holidays when the weather gets warmer if they have to face a two-week enforced hotel quarantine at their own expenses when coming back. A hotel quarantine system would mean that only truly essential travel would take place.

paulaf

The Spanish tourism minister backtracked on that saying they want tourists by Spring.

ahmetdouas

My point is hotel quarantines are completely unsustainable unless they are very targeted. 10,000 arrivals are the bare minimum with many restrictions with 'essential travel', once they are lifted that number will increase and they can't put many ppl in hotels. The UK is far more connected globally than Australia and New zealand, I know the political narrative is to stop parties in Dubai but there are many more reasons to travel than that !

KARFA

Even when local movement restrictions are lifted in the UK, do you think the requirement to have tests and self isolate on arrival in to Europe, and more tests and self isolation on return will keep numbers down?

You also seem to think there is no effect on reducing travel if hotel enforced quarantine is brought in and that the 10,000 figure doesn't reduce, and in fact goes up regardless. I can't see many people travelling if they are required to spend 10 days in a hotel at their own cost on arrival in to the UK. Doesn't sound like a fun holiday to me tbh. I am not sure what this minimum of 10,000 people is that doesn't go down regardless of what measures are brought in. Most won't want to travel if it means bills of £500+ per person on tests and hotels on top of normal costs.

Even if targeted rather than all arrivals, there is no guarantee these concerning strains won't appear in Spain/Italy/Greece etc, and arrivals from those countries are added to the list.

The recent mood music atm from the UK government seems to be focused on vaccination and reopening the domestic economy, not towards international travel or trade. Enabling travel for holiday abroad, with the potential of bringing back new strains simply isn't part of that.

NickB

Exactly. That is the point I was trying to make in my previous post: with a compulsory 10-day quarantine on entering the UK, there would be close to zero outbound (or inbound for that matter) leisure travel, no matter how warm the weather is on the Mediterranean, no matter how high the discounts on holiday flights and accommodation and no matter how open other countries are. And as to 'essential' travel, unless one is exempted from the hotel quarantine, I think that many would think hard as to how really, really, really essential that essential trip is and whether there is not any way around it. WIth a compulsory 10 day hotel quarantine, I would expect that travel would be a fraction of what it is now unless there were vast exemptions from the quarantine.

ahmetdouas

you seem to think ppl only travel to party! It’s not the case. If hotel quarantine is so easy they would have already done it. Hotel quarantine for sa and br is easy for everyone blanket it is not.

also govt said Covid is here forever, so if we worried about strains then the borders will be closed forever! Clearly won’t happen, despite the best wishes of some people.

uk is too connected for blanket hotel quarantine. It’s not realistic to have one for everyone, especially with no end in sight.

you are completely wrong about international travel and trade as the uk is very very reliant on it. Why do you think the uk has such a liberal border policy? Even now all nationals can fly in with limited exceptions such as BR and SA arrivals for 10 days. Otherwise it’s 5 with a test 10 without.

10,000 arrivals during lockdown. Without lockdown and a more open world, much much higher. The border argument is only being led by people such as Hancock and Patel, you ask Sunak and Shapps and they will say not possible for blanket bans forvevwr.

someone has to pay the bill eventually and that would mean a global Britain.

as daily mail called it, having a few countries not many ppl travel to on the hotel quarantine won’t change much at all, so it’s not much of a story as they are making it to be.

it’s like people calling for a stricter lockdown in the uk as cases are not falling enough, just a lot of hot air from people with nothing better to do except criticise and ignore the reality of the situation from all sides (economy, jobs, health of younger people, etc) it’s all
about finding a balance

KARFA

I think once the meaningless phrase "global Britain" is mentioned as a justification for something, it is time for me to leave the debate

ahmetdouas

lets see what happens in the end. The UK was never big on enforcement anyway. The government is more practical than many ppl think, especially against the ones asking for ‘shutdown everything forever’ and ‘close the airports’. They aren’t in power and never will be.

NickB

Hong Kong and SIngapore are two of the three countries most dependent on international trade. Do you want to go and check what their rules are regarding entry into the country?
And if you think that international trade is not a good indicator and something like tourism is more important, tourism represents approximately 11% of UK GDP. By way of comparison, it is around 18% of GDP for Hong Kong or for New Zealand.
I am not sure on what the idea that the UK is uniquely reliant on international travel compared to countries with stricter restrictions on entry seems to be based but I struggle to find an objective basis for it.
It seems to me that it is a choice that the UK could make if it wanted to, albeit at an economic cost. It is not a choice I would welcome and it still seems to me, notwithstanding the noises around it, still rather at the low end of probabilities but I think that we need to open our eyes that it is not quite as impossible as some might suggest.

ahmetdouas

That's what I meant though, panic-mongering is not a good thing to do. We should expect things to be logical (e.g. hotels for mutant strain nations, etc), not crazy (everything shut forever).

Also Singapore and Hong Kong are much stricter countries than the UK, it's a completely different approach society-wise.

The UK government is keeping expectations low, while the rumours are getting at peak level. E.g. UK government specifically said no lockdown decisions until Feb 15 and we will see then, but we have speculation about schools, restrictions, travel, all sorts.

On a positive note, it seems UK could exceed its target of 15 million vaccinations in Mid-Feb.

Schwann

If it is anything like the PPE contracts, there will be someone friends with some MP who miraculously sets up some isolation hotel booking service for which they can get millions in government contracts.