NewbieRunner

Two-thirds of the population of Wales cannot leave their local area anyway.

Silver Fox

Is there evidence that it is spreaders from England's hotspots going to Wales and causing issues? I know the unis are suffering from outbreaks everywhere to differing levels, is that the transmission path?

KARFA

This report today is an attempt to show that. Having read it, the report shows that cases increased since things were relaxed in August. Whether it demonstrates this is due to people from the rest of the UK going to Wales is questionable (as opposed to people from Wales travelling and bringing the virus back for example), and is only suggests (but does not prove) it may be "...partly be driven by imports from other parts of the UK and wider world". As to how much of a part that represents, there is no conclusion.

https://gov.wales/written-statement-...neages-wales-0

orbitmic

The Welsh government considers that there is. At any rate, there is a much greater likelihood that spreaders from (notably neighbouring) high incidence English areas contributes as compared to spreaders arriving from foreign areas with significantly lower infection rates who are currently subject to a 2 week quarantine.

As mentioned, I think that the issue for Wales is also to ensure fairer burden sharing in the sense that given that residents from high incidence Welsh areas are fairly strictly forbidden from travelling outside of their area, including to the rest of Wales, a lot were clearly irked that people coming from English areas with much higher incidence rates could freely come to their neck of the wood. In the current context, "perceptions of fairness" probably matters a lot - and in the long run - through public compliance.

KARFA

Yes. Unfortunately it seems your second paragraph may actually be the main reason.

Scots_Al

The coach load of Elvis impersonators from Bolton (of all places) which turned up in Porthcawl despite the Elvis convention being cancelled (and then a day later when pubs in Porthcawl were closed moved on to Tenby) probably didn�t help much!


https://www.manchestereveningnews.co...olton-18979228

orbitmic

In the "evidence" box, yesterday, Ms Sturgeon was also eager to use the example of 94 Scots recently returning from Blackpool who tested positive to coronavirus, using the example to urge Scots not to go to Blackpool.

In the context of Scotland quite likely following on the steps of Wales, focusing on this example achieves two main goals: 1) evidence of infection (indeed, there have been few groups of travellers from abroad being infected in similar numbers) and 2) framing the Welsh and possible future Scottish measure largely as an extension of the international travel restrictions, ie not as something intended to close border to "foreigners" (be they nationals) but primarily on avoiding people behaving "selfishly" to go and have fun somewhere then infecting the community when they return with the virus as holiday "souvenir".

scottishpoet

around 180 scots who have tested positive with the last month have indicated the have been in blackpool, 94 in the last week.

having closed the pubs in scotland so people cannot gather to watch this weekends old firm game she is really worried that groups of people will travel to blackpool and other places south of the border to watch it

lhrsfo

This is, of course, the issue. When you restrict people from doing what they want to do, they'll find ways of doing it anyway, especially when they are not buying in to the restrictions. Which then leads to tighter and tighter restrictions, and lower and lower compliance.

KARFA

As we head in to ever stricter lockdowns in the UK I found these interesting:

Beds occupied in England with coronavirus patients (apologies I can only find figures from 20 March up to 1 October)



Coronavirus deaths in the UK



Coronavirus cases in the UK

scottishpoet

they are saying there are now more people in hospital in the UK with COVID than there was when the UK entered lockdown.

KARFA

yes, and apologies for bed occupancy that was the date range i found. will try and hunt for the figures before late april and for the last two weeks, and i will update.

EDIT: graph now updated as i found figures from 20 march to late april. last figure is still 1 oct

scottishpoet

I am always suspicious of graphs that do not show current data. It makes me think they no longer show what the author was trying to demonstrate. There was a time at the end of September where cases were rising and some were suggesting hospitalisations were not rising so why the need for more restrictions.

KARFA

From 17 October the following are being added to Tier 2 for England, they were all previously Tier 1. Post 37 updated.

Cumbria
Barrow-in-Furness Borough Council

Derbyshire
Chesterfield Borough Council
Erewash Borough Council

Essex
Basildon Council
Braintree District Council
Brentwood Borough Council
Castle Point Borough Council
Chelmsford City Council
Colchester Borough Council
Epping Forest District Council
Harlow Council
Maldon District Council
Rochford District Council
Tendring District Council
Uttlesford District Council

Greater London
The Common Council of the City of London
Barking and Dagenham Borough Council
Barnet Borough Council
Bexley Borough Council
Brent Borough Council
Bromley Borough Council
Camden Borough Council
Croydon Borough Council
Ealing Borough Council
Enfield Borough Council
Greenwich Borough Council
Hackney Borough Council
Hammersmith and Fulham Borough Council
Haringey Borough Council
Harrow Borough Council
Havering Borough Council
Hillingdon Borough Council
Hounslow Borough Council
Islington Borough Council
Kensington and Chelsea Borough Council
Kingston upon Thames Borough Council
Lambeth Borough Council
Lewisham Borough Council
Merton Borough Council
Newham Borough Council
Redbridge Borough Council
Richmond upon Thames Borough Council
Southwark Borough Council
Sutton Borough Council
Tower Hamlets Borough Council
Waltham Forest Borough Council
Wandsworth Borough Council
Westminster City Council

North Yorkshire
City of York Council

Surrey
Elmbridge Borough Council

alex67500

The testing regime has also increased massively since March when lots of cases were not found through lack of testing. Looking at the graphs from back then is rather misleading.