just nose. To be honest the whole process took about 10 mins so it wasn’t that bad

well i truly hope the EU vaccine program can beat the clock before the delta variant takes a stronger share and upends things that people are enjoying today!

so far aside from portugal it seems to be appearing in pockets but just like bolton and other pockets in the UK, it will soon become dominant in the EU if it outpaces vaccine efforts. so it is not an apples to apple comparison how open one country is relative to the UK. we see the news on RU deaths, luckily the UK deaths are nowhere near what we saw prior to vaccine efforts. the US remains TBD but i would imagine the increased deaths and cases will eventually follow in a regional/unvaccinated basis frankly--they benefit from space and privacy/isolation especially in the more backwoods/vaccine hesitant regions.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...60778d33d9.png

This is something I've been a bit concerned about in the last few weeks. Here in Germany, they're fairly consistently delivering about 5.5 million doses per week over the last few weeks. There are now 26.27 million people fully vaccinated, 31.6% of the population. That's good progress, but the fully vaccinated rate is still around half that of the UK - the breakdown by Federal State below is from the Impfdashboard.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...5b90f97604.png


I can only hope that there is a way of ramping this up a bit more, because this really is a race against time.

Assuming a constant rate of 5m/week, it will take a minimum of another 9 or so weeks, i.e. the end of August, before the population is vaccinated. Edit: this is wrong: it underestimated the remaining doses needed, based on 1 dose per remaining non-fully-vaccinated person. In reality many of these still need both doses, so this will take longer.

It might be a bit sooner Less time may be required if not including children (or at least under 12s), as the percentage vaccinated figure is of the whole population total of 83 million. Similarly, we might not need quite 100% to achieve population level protection/herd immunity.

On the other hand, the people already vaccinated are the most willing, and I suspect there will be diminishing returns as the vaccination programme progresses - you'll be trying to vaccinate the less willing or harder to reach populations - so whether they can keep up 5m a week is another question entirely. Also, one has to allow another couple of weeks for immunity to develop, so realistically we're probably looking at early-to-mid September before the whole vaccination programme is "complete".

Against this, we have the Delta variant: the question is what kind of case growth we might expect as it becomes dominant, and how long this will take to really take off. The weekly RKI situation report in English doesn't break down the number of cases by variant unfortunately, and I've not gone through the RKI website to find this information. fransknorge is this available in one place anywhere?

You can find it on the Variant of Concern report of the RKI, published on an irregular basis.
Latest one is from 9th June: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...ublicationFile

I’ve just realised that my dates above are very wrong - they are based on vaccinating only one dose for the remaining population; in reality a majority of the remaining not-fully-vaccinated population still require both jabs. So this will take longer than my back-of-the-envelope calculation above.

Moral of the story: don’t try to work these things out when you’re overtired late at night. I’ll update the post above to make it clear it’s wrong.

Thanks for that pointer to the information fransknorge.

I think Germany might be doing somewhat better than you think. Germany has fully vaccinated about 32% of its population, but that is over two thirds (not half) the comparable figure for the UK (47%). The difference might be that the UK only calculates its vaccine figures as a percentage of the adult population whereas Germany, and many other countries, considers the entire population. And Germany is catching up very quickly after a slow start to the rollout: it has now delivered 67.1 million doses, compared with the UK's 74.6 million.

Thanks for that information [MENTION=792587]Misco60[/MENTION] - you expressed better than I did the point I was trying to make in my third-from-last paragraph. If I have any time later today I'll try to work out something a little bit more refined - will need to check the adult population, work out the approx number of doses required for full vaccination (second doses for those partially done, and both doses for those who haven't had any - and perhaps accounting for the % of single dose vaccinations). Again, the various presumptions we have to make - e.g. that the rate of 5-5.5 million doses a week is sustained - will affect this.

The easiest way of doing so might be to work from the fact that Germany has delivered 81 doses per 100 people. As a very rough calculation, that leaves 119 doses per 100 yet to give, or about 98.5 million actual doses. At 5.5 million doses per week that's 18 weeks.

It's official people, UEFA plutocrats can skip the quarantine courtesy of HMG.

From this post on LinkedIn:

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...3930cc1f4.jpeg

full amendment here: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/...roduction/made

Congrats HMG, now you're on par with Orban and Bolsonaro.

I won't go as far in the comparison, but it is disappointing...

Orban's Hungary also has explicit exemptions to quarantine for people attending or taking part in football matches, (meanwhile I haven't been allowed to enter the country to see my sister-in-law's wedding or to meet my nephew as I'm not a citizen and Hungary doesn't recognise my marriage certificate) and Bolsonaro's been happy to organise the Copa America in Brasil.

The comparison on this point is spot on in my view. I'd also go as far as saying that Orban and BoJo go to the same blind tailor but that's for another day.

I hope for a repeat of B.1.1.17 (alpha/Kent) variant - it quickly became dominant in Germany but without the huge wave of cases, hospitalisations and deaths seen in the UK. Hopefully the continued wearing of masks in schools and workplaces, and then the summer holidays play a part in significantly reducing transmission until the end of summer when the vaccine program is closer to completion.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...1730ec22b2.png

Here is the vaccine passport they gave me with the details removed, it's the common european one now

Isn't it nice! While the whole of Europe gets to travel this summer here in the UK we all get locked out after being the first to get the vaccine machine rolling LOL :D

That's political though not scienfiic, is this the game post Brexit UK wants to play, isolated from the rest of the world?