If this is the case it's going to be interesting. As soon as it isn't law, a lot of people will simply choose never to use it (myself included), others will be less persuadable even when asked. Uber is one example, maybe BA as well. I can think of. An MP also talked of some businesses keeping the rules in place as it would present insurance issues if they ignore 'advice'. I'm surprised they aren't keeping it on public transport, though pleased. Have a 'mask' section for those worried.

the "pretty please" approach has been a total failure and yet they're insisting with it... bah.

Well even now exempt people get abuse for not wearing masks, so it will just be like that on a bigger scale.

priti has routinely been "out of the loop" on many public statements. but i also would not be surprised that the govmt's right hand has no clue what its left hand is doing wrt jul 19.

Daily vaccines are down quite a bit, I wonder if that's a supply issue or a demand issue. Only 85% so I would hope there's still another 10% of the population left.

Another 4,234 cases in Scotland (10.5%) with 6 deaths reported .

Interesting to see on the gov.uk website, they've added a map of vaccination coverage by local areas for England and Scotland. If you compare it with where cases are highest it almost maps exactly. The only outlier is London, I don't know if that's because many people left London during Covid (and got vaccinated elsewhere) or a sign of a wave to come.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deta...tive-map/cases (and flip to vaccinations at the top)

Daily data:

Cases 27,989 (16,703 last Thursday)
Deaths 22 (21)
Patients admitted 259 (204 on the 20th)
Patients in hospital 1,795 (1,485 on the 23rd)
Patients in ventilation beds 287 (246 on the 23rd)
People vaccinated up to and including 30 June 2021:
First dose: 44,860,978
Second dose: 33,048,199

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 71.8% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 10.7%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 16.3 today.

Thanks for the link. However, I'm not seeing your conclusion at all. Scotland and Cornwall have among the highest dose rate and highest case rate.
It would be intereseting if they also did a similar map with current hospitalization & death rate since that seems to be the metric they're basing policy on now.

Thank you for your daily updates which I always look at. I appreciate your efforts although I often forget to acknowledge.

Would it be approximately correct to take the reciprocal of your increase in case rate to get the # of weeks for case doubling? So roughly every 1.4 weeks ?

I suspect that London has a more transient population and there are people registered with doctors who are no longer in London, or possibly no longer in the UK. I was doing some work for local GP surgery chasing up the unvaccinated and there was a large number of phone numbers that started 0181. 0181 became 0208 in April 2000, so these people have had insufficient contact to update their number with their registered GP for over 20 years!

That said, if it is anything like my local surgery then despite over a million calls to them to swap my home phone number for my mobile, I can still come home to either a message or see their number calling the landline. But, get your point. :)

Rumours that HMG is negotiating to acquire 1m Pfizer doses immediately from Israel, with short use by dates in exchange for the same number due to us in September. It’s only 3 days worth but notable when we are so constrained on supply.

Seems to map pretty well to Scottish local authorities to me. East Ayrshire, Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire all stand out in the west as having high rates, but they are all surrounded by areas with higher vaccination rates. Similar story in the east. The only real exception seems to be Glasgow city, but that probably has a mini version of the London effect.

If you compare 2nd jabs and cases side by side (below a photo for England) the correlation is sort of there but not too evident:


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...a6012e6bdf.png

with only Jab 1, though it feels a bit more recognisable.


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...9526b5eb3c.png