FlyerTalk Forums - Local lockdowns in the UK

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Quote:

Originally Posted by enviroian (Post 33293595)

Wow, thanks for the data! While I was being overly dramatic with my post in jest as I know why they aren't open but after seeing a statistic like that it makes me wonder how many people in England died today from 1. Walking across the street and being hit by a lorry? 2. Getting eaten by an alligator that came out of the Thames?

Yesterday the figures were 3 (all traffic incidents in GB) and zero respectively.

Worth pointing out that the weekend death figures are normally a bit low due to reporting challenges. There is a catch up on Monday/Tuesday.

Quote:

Originally Posted by squawk (Post 33293320)

While I agree with you that Covid itself is currently a relatively small cause of bed utilisation, it is worth remembering that this isn’t the only pressure the pandemic has put on the health service.

1) Covid segregation and cleaning requirements really eat into capacity - way beyond the raw number of beds. It isn’t simply “oh, we can fit another 3 Covid positive patients because we’ve got 8 beds” - if those beds are in a non-Covid ward, you have a problem. You can convert the ward to a Covid ward, but then you lose capacity for non-Covid stuff which is a problem because…

2) …The NHS still has an enormous backlog of work which it is trying to get through, and bed utilisation is something around 96-97% - that doesn’t leave a lot of room for a Covid surge. This is an ‘indirect’ effect of Covid. In addition…

3)… Many of the most urgent cases in that backlog need longer recovery than usual, which again means more pressure on resources than would otherwise be the case. Another ‘indirect’ effect of Covid.

These aspects and more besides are discussed the following Twitter thread posted by the CEO of NHS Providers. It is an insightful look at some of the challenges that NHS Trusts are facing, despite Covid cases being relatively low at the moment - it is well worth reading in full.

No disrespect meant to the NHS, but if a key metric for the lifting of lockdowns is for the organisation to cut its waiting times and backlog then we'll be probably have it until the sun becomes a red giant and swallows us all. A former colleague of mine had her hysterectomy operation cancelled six times by NHS trusts in Herts, Bucks and West London in 2018; in one case she was told to forget about it as she was driving into the hospital, with the excuse "we're 20 beds short today".

It's a highly complex situation and it's clear to me that years and years of mismanagement, cuts and dubious "efficencies" have come to a head... and I'm a bit concerned that, rather than fixing these issues, HMG might be tempted to say "well, we'll just keep limits to society for longer because otherwise these public sectors won't cope". I think this is already happening with UK Border Force and green lists.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 13901 (Post 33294268)

It's a highly complex situation and it's clear to me that years and years of mismanagement, cuts and dubious "efficencies" have come to a head... and I'm a bit concerned that, rather than fixing these issues, HMG might be tempted to say "well, we'll just keep limits to society for longer because otherwise these public sectors won't cope". I think this is already happening with UK Border Force and green lists.

I absolutely agree with you that there are longer term NHS issues, including chronic underfunding vs need and a politically driven reorganisation in 2012 that has taken several years to shake out. I've had close relatives who have had live-saving surgery delayed (and others who are doctors) so I too am familiar with the impact of these issues on waiting lists and patient care.

My post wasn't to ignore the significance of those factors in where we are now - simply to point out that Covid has increased existing pressures and left even less capacity in the system than there was before. That means everything is more finely balanced, so it wouldn't take as much of a direct Covid surge to cause problems.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ahmetdouas (Post 33293402)

I mean joking aside except for nightclubs and foreign travel my life is normal now.

Indeed. After being out at the weekend, life seems more or less back to normal (other than having to wear a mask whilst not seated). Bars and restaurants are busy again. If the hospitalisations remain fairly static for the next couple of weeks - I'd say that's the end of lockdowns.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DYKWIA (Post 33294344)

Having spent a couple of days in London, I agree that life there is just as busy and 90% the way back to normal.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DYKWIA (Post 33294344)

I was speaking with family in LA yesterday who were saying to me “how come you Brits are still all locked down? Over here life is back to normal but with masks” to which I responded that really lockdowns are mostly gone and as far as things go, life is pretty much back to normal - albeit with masks. Not being one to frequent nightclubs etc, the only thing that I am missing is international travel.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilsnunn (Post 33294375)

Yep.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DYKWIA (Post 33294344)

indeed. If they show significant and continued growth then there is a likelihood of extending restrictions. But given the current trend is way under the most optimistic SAGE prediction I’d say there is still cause for hope.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swanhunter (Post 33294473)

Ian Duncan Smith calling this a coordinated attack by scientists to delay lockdown lifting, hence the media talking about it non stop 'please delay lockdown for a month', etc. I hope Boris holds his nerve.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilsnunn (Post 33294375)

Agreed. Personally if we could get rid of the masks then I'd happily take that over easing the remaining restrictions on numbers. Life is otherwise pretty normal domestically. Unfortunately the masks seem likely to linger here whatever happens.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ldnn1 (Post 33294526)

if it’s optional then that’s fine

Scotland- easing of restrictions paused in many areas

Hi,

The scottish fm is speaking now on easing of restrictions

Glasgow moves from level 3 from 0001 on saturday

Many areas are remaining at level 2 for the moment.

On a personal note, my area ( Falkirk) is one of a few that is moving from 2 to 1 on saturday.

BBC announcement

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57315436

For areas in Level 1 'The rest of mainland Scotland will be moving to level one on 5 June, which means eight people from three households can meet indoors and 12 people from 12 households can meet outdoors.

Soft play centres and funfairs are allowed to reopen and 100 people are allowed to attend weddings or funerals.'

The islands are moving to level 0

'This will allow people to meet up in greater numbers, although Ms Sturgeon said people from the mainland should take a Covid-19 test before travelling there' ( suggestion I think rather than guidance or regulation')

Regards

Tbs

Most of the central belt of Scotland is staying in level 2 instead of going down to level 1 next week.

Daily data:

Cases 3,165 (2,493 last Tuesday)
Deaths 0 (15)
People vaccinated up to and including 31 May 2021:
First dose: 39,477,158
Second dose: 25,734,719

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 31.9% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 10.4%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 6.1 today. At last, after a week or more of poor figures we have a day we have waited a long while for. 0 deaths reported for the UK which is the first time we have seen that since July 30th. Total jabs is also now well over 65 million.