oh, so THATS what happened to the brexit bus!!

joking aside, this is great! and that is positive news on those who were basically dragged from the shop to the bus by their wives. i feel the vaccine for some may be a lot like me going to the gym--the most simple excuse is good enough to prevent me from going!

plus it helps those who have other responsibilities and lack the time to get one, or whatever the reason is.

i do get depressed from time to time reading the AA boards as an extension of the charged climate covid became under trump, but i am always buyoed by the sensibility that prevails here and the expectation-busting take up of the vaccine.

24hrs after our second Pfizer doses, my partner doesn't feel great but nothing more than a slight hangover type thing (still fine to go our for breakfast in the sun this morning!) and I have nothing at all.

cws: does your position get you some interim preliminary results of the Octave study ? This is done in Birmingham.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/2163...with-impaired/

Maybe read my post next time before responding. :confused: You will notice I said all people who accept the offer to get vaccinated.

I will try and find out, but it is a public holiday here this weekend, so it may take a few days (hopefully not everyone is in Portugal!).

Thanks a lot, I am looking forward to see this.

Daily data:

Cases 3,230 (2,235 last Sunday)
Deaths 6 (5)
People vaccinated up to and including 29 May 2021:
First dose: 39,259,168
Second dose: 25,332,851

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 26.8% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 42.9%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 8.6 today.

The 43% doesn't sound good, but it's where the rolling average went from 5 per day to 8 per day. The increase in cases is with big numbers so it's more meaningful and is a clear rise. Blackburn with Darwen has now overtaken Bolton as the worst hot spot. Bolton has gone from about 450 cases per 100k to around 330. Blackburn is officially on 364.7 and will go up for a few more days, but there is a slight hint it may be beginning to fall. Bedford, on 190 is in third place, so some way lower, and is declining. Outside Bolton and Bedford it so far seems to be some cases in the Greater Manchester conurbations and small rises in one or two other places. Much of the UK is still seeing declines in cases.

Is it know (or assumed) the increase to 43% is due to the infamous "variants"?

FWIW I have read that the Indian variant that has scared the UK has shown up in Michigan.

After reading a scientist on SkyNews talking of it (Indian variant numbers) currently doubling every week and thus encouraging an early dose of further restrictions, how do you think this will play out in the coming weeks CWS? In terms of growth of cases and hospitalisations/deaths. Are the few hotspots just having a crazy mini spell before it all settles again or do you expect these spurts all over the country?Other scientists have just described the June 21 reopening as 'in the balance' and have said they aren't as worried as previous waves in terms of serious illness/deaths. Reversing the roadmap would be very painful for Bojo politically I'd imagine.

Remember the 43% relates to deaths. And as CWS rightly says, it is not a great figure to look at when there are so few deaths. HMG publish it, so I have included it in the data I put a few posts back. From what I have seen, the Indian variant is mostly affecting the young and may not feed through into the figures for deaths in any significant way. Only time will tell how this is going to pan out - hopefully it will not be the problem that is being feared.

I think we have had 3 deaths in total from the Variant in the last month, UK wide, out of a total of 250 or so. So it's a bit difficult to tell. To give an illustration how this is very different from the Kent variant: our worst location for the Indian variant is Blackburn, and that's not a big town (115,000 or so). During January there were about 4 deaths a day there, it was probably a bit more since some cases were transferred to Manchester due to hospital overloading. In May there was one death on 23 May, Indian variant, and another on the 13 May, not the Indian variant and perhaps not actually caused by COVID (there were mulltiple health issues). Two a month rather than four a day. There were no deaths at all for the whole of April.

So the cases are going up, you probably saw the heat map for Bolton upthread, it's mainly youngsters getting this variant. Blackburn has a few older people who are in there, which Bolton did not see. There is some localised increase in hospital visits but generally it's Accident and Emergency (ER) day visits, because they are younger they are generally being sent home after being given dexamethasone, they are not staying overnight. Deaths remain close to zero UK wide. Now that's not to make light of it, since we still don't have 85% vaccine coverage of UK adults yet, that's going to take another month, and of course some of the younger people will get serious, perhaps permanent, impacts from their infection. But we're in a radically different and better place than January, and so long as cases are tracked and tested, we should stay that way.

Indian variant cases are doubling every 8 days at the moment, I hope this can be lengthened. A lot depends on Blackburn, Manchester and Bury tracking infections, testing, vaccinating and isolating those who are positive. This is difficult in these areas since there is a lot of poverty in these areas anyway and many people can't afford to be off work even if sick. But set against this is the point that's not being mentioned so much: if the Indian variant supplants the Kent variant - something still not certain - then you have read alongside the rise in Indian Variant cases goes with a continuing reduction in Kent Variant cases. It's a dynamic situation. Right now it would not seem a good time to re-open nightclubs, but the decision point for that is 2 weeks off.

Thanks as ever for your insightful updates from the vaccination front lines corporate-wage-slave.

It is really heartening to see that you’re able to get even people who might have been hesitant to take up a vaccine through the use of the outreach bus. As you say it speaks to the importance of making it as hassle-free and convenient as possible once the low-hanging fruit of pent up demand has been dealt with. Hopefully your successful experience in NT and other surge areas will feed into the planning for that.

There was a vaccination drive for the Chinese community in London's Chinatown towards the end of last week. The principle was you just needed to turn up, no ID needed, lack of NHS number not a problem, etc. By all accounts it was a roaring success with queues around the block and several thousand jabs dispensed.

I think it just goes to show that some targeted communications for some of our diverse communities that reassures these harder to reach people that no paperwork or proof is needed can really help drive take-up.