Was discussed at a select committee hearing this week:

https://parliamentlive.tv/event/inde...5e?in=10:34:02

My view is they're saying it's not in the individual interest of a 30-something to accept AstraZeneca, but counter-balancing this is that delaying the roll-out has population-level risks. The chap being interviewed said they'd decide on Thursday (i.e. yesterday), or roll it over into next week.

There are roughly 10 million unused Pfizer first doses from the 1st order, and perhaps 7 million first Moderna doses from that order unused:


This is against a population of around 20 million 16 to 39 year olds, so there's clearly enough mRNA for all the under 40's.

I'm a 30-something and I'm flat-out refusing AstraZeneca. I'll immediately accept an alternative as soon as it's offered, but I'm going down this route in the full knowledge I could be without a vaccine perhaps indefinitely.

Would you say you have an informed view of the risks, compared, for example, to the risks of a road accident getting to your vaccination? It is an individual choice, so I would not want to over-labour the point, but if you are male then the risk of lung cancer is greater. And yes, you will get a vaccine offer at some point which is not AZ / J&J, the medium term supply logistics pretty much guarantees that.

do you think when J&J comes on no one will want AZ anymore to save the hassle of 2 jabs? especially as people who are offered jabs have less and less risk (e.g. a 30 year old is less worried about getting a jab than an 80 year old).
Also if there are 5 different vaccines on offer how will one know which one they will get offered? Until recently it was either AZ or Pfizer, now it's more and more.

i wish they can soon do a US style system where you can choose your jab when booking it!

Thanks CWS. As I'm early 30's - I would prefer Pfizer/Moderna, but will take AZ if that is what is offered. Is there anyway you know what vaccine you are getting before you actually turn up?

I'm in London, but definitely willing to travel to get a vaccine - do you know at all if there are areas that have pfizer/moderna or it is completely random?

I've taken the figures from these well-publicised graphs, and attempted to adjust them to take into account that I don't have any pre-existing conditions. In the 30-somethings, roughly 6/7-ths of deaths are in the 1/7th of the population with pre-existing conditions, so this adjustment massively reduces the benefits of the vaccine in my case.


However the absolute risk is still tiny so I accept my argument of relative risk is a bit niche (and yes, for example, far more likely to be murdered than to die of a vaccine-induced blood clot and yet I leave my house!). In the interim, I have no issue with taking twice-weekly lateral flow tests to facilitate my choice.

I think also the risk of getting covid and being seriously ill and/or getting long covid during the period you were waiting for an alternative would be considerably higher than any risk of serious side effects from the AZ vaccine.

For the avoidance of doubt, I would not be in favour of anyone being forced to take a vaccine they don't want. However, purely on a statistical risk view and assuming no underlying conditions which make a person susceptible to blood clots, it is a difficult to see why someone would refuse.

Rightly or wrongly the process in the UK is that vaccination is about benefits overall, rather than "me, me, me", I tihnk the USA struggles with the first concept but can leverage the second very well. But yes, add in the booster vax then it is going to get complicated. At the moment the AZ real world data is fantastic, so I suspet MHRA will only allow J&J if we know it is just as good as AZ and Pfizer. And to be honest I don't think I've met many people who want to avoid the second jab, the take up rate for second jabs is running at something like 99%. On the other hand, having vaccinated people with multiple murder convictions I would personally quite like to see a solo vaccine offer! But from what I can make out J&J is running slightly less effective than AZ, probably due to being a single dose. The whole 2 dose issue is mired in immunological complexity, if we had had the time we probably would have done this differently and only given 1 dose to younger people, regardless of vaccine brand. AZ isn't going away: it's cheap, the side effects are low for most people, it transports well and can be re-transported too, the real world data is very good, and the longer term immune response looks good. I frankly had a choice, and I had no hesitation in going for AZ, though genuinely I would have been happy to have Pfizer or Moderna.

There were cases of blood clots with J&J vaccine. Same as AZ, it is also an adenoviral vector based vaccine

You maximise your chance on the national website rather than your GP process(es) to get Moderna, particularly, and to some extent Pfizer too. GPs will more likely do AZ. But yes, get the first one offered, You do have the ability to decline the vaccine when you get through screening, and you just have to go through the process again on another day if necessary. Though you will probably be discouraged from doing that, you don't get some sort of black mark for this. London is a good place to get vaccines, but "early 30s" isn't necessarily the same as "35" ! But you should be vaccinated in the next few weeks. Just have a daily check on the website. If your GP is not in London, make sure you are re-registered in London though. I have a feeling things are going to move fairly quickly since about a quarter of your age group is already vaccinated.

When you say "re-registered", what do you mean? I'll do anything to get a jab soon!

Ah I see - I have been checking the site regularly. The thing that frustrates me is that I know two people who are 40 that got the vaccine in March and another friend who is 36 who get it first week of April! They are all in London and got text messages - they didn't wait outside clinics or go online or anything. I'm just not sure why I haven't got anything yet, when in London it seems many 30-year olds have been jabbed.

I think it mostly depends on your practice. I live in LBTH and I've been told my GP is the smallest practice in the NHS so he's not called me yet. I'm not even sure he does vaccinations to be honest. The mesh of possibilities is what it is. If your GP practice is organised then you'll be done early there, otherwise the behemoth will catch you when your age group gets called forward for the national effort.

Well just to be clear, many people who live in London who are younger, have a GP registered in some other part of the UK or even further off, given they think they are indestructible. I was stupid enough to believe that once too. Since London is well below the national average, GPs are being pressed very hard to get get people jabbed, hence some people in some places are getting hauled in earlier, e.g. Tower Hamlets and Westminster, so I suspect your friends come from the low vax locations. Hence my earlier question about this point. But as I say I suspect you won't be waiting much longer now. You could also ring up a few pharmacies around where you live on the national list, around 3:30 pm, and see if they have spare doses going.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavir...pril-2021.xlsx

Fair enough - I'll do some ringing around and see if I can get lucky :)

Well the original claim is a bit misleading because only recently has there been a choice in the US due to the glut of supply--none of my friends or family had a choice--it was whatever appointment you secured most all were relieved and did not think about pfizer v moderna.

Of course, the notion of hesitation on choice is literally brand new since the news on J&J combined with a significant amount of supply combined with latency or hesitation on 2nd doses and of course, politics and history leading to increases on choice.

that would be my boss who got his letter to book yesterday...in jersey. lol. they still kept tabs on him despite moving to london 20 years ago, but luckily he managed to snag an apopintment today having just turned 40.

i did share HB7s frustration seeing friends and colleagues in their mid and young 30s with no pre-existing conditions being invited in mid-march on...it really is just a mixed situation in london...but now things seem to be back in motion so hopefully it isnt long for you!