I could only guess/speculate on this as I have not seen data for either. The ONS do some monitoring that tries to give the real number of cases in the population as opposed to the number picked up by testing. So overall that data does exist. That's where estimates like the 1 in 480 are were infected in the week ending 10 April come from.

I think for the Indian variant, watching the data for the next two weeks will show if it is more widely spread than we know. My guess is that it is, given the family ties to India and that it has been around for a while.

Due to the fact that postive Day2 tests are sequenced, those which are low in number and have an overseas centre are likely to be close to accurate bearing in mind someone self isolating is probably going to lose the infection without giving it to others. The lack of increase for Brazil P2 shows this happening. So the actual number right now could be a lot lower. Some leakage is inevitable though. For the UK based variants you can probably double the number to take account of the fact that not all positives are sequenced and sequencing was less prevalent a few months back. And perhaps double again to take account of asymptomatics and those refusing to get tested.

You can find the actual analysis, evidence and minutes from each SAGE meeting at the link below - I find it rational, evidence based and in no way alarmist or fear mongering.
https://www.gov.uk/government/collec...virus-covid-19

I think the fear mongering part is driven by the media (and our behaviour). There is money to be made (newspaper sales, clicks, shares etc) from building grievances (e.g. against people, politics, or experts) and it is incredibly seductive for the person consuming the media.

The meeting minutes from SAGE at the end of March show they consider a third wave likely (medium/high confidence), but give the vaccination program it will likely have only a modest impact and will not overwhelm the NHS (high confidence). I can't see anything controversial about that.

so having recently driven through France-Belgium-Luxembourg-Germany-Switzerland-Italy-Slovenia-Austria-Germany-Netherlands-Belgium-France .... i can safely say that crossing borders really isn't much of a problem in any particular country. I had a couple of PCR tests along my way, of which only a couple of borders actually checked, but no additional checks or any enquiry as to my journey (work trip), or any ridiculous 2/8 days tests (taxes) upon entry. The whole trip was surprisingly 'normal' and a throwback to how travel should be....

admittedly i drove to avoid airport hassle, but it's something i prefer anyway and it makes a mockery of all the stuff you need when flying right now

Does anyone with a crystal ball have any thoughts on what the US decision to keep the UK on the Do Not Travel list means for the UK’s Covid situation?

Well, I guess the main issue is the travel to US. Situation in UK is better, when you take COVID cases and vaccination into account. Not sure about the travel to US. Some people seem to think, things might change in June

What’s going on with the roadmap anyway will Boris speed it up? It’s apparently not even a pandemic anymore but we still have many restrictions even though hardly anyone is dying from this now.

I cannot see any point for restrictions domestically anymore, surely waiting 2 more months is not needed ?

The word pandemic means it's everywhere, and if you look at the rest of the world, it is very much still a pandemic. The risk of importing a variant still exists, and thus the government are sticking to their plan. Moaning on FT is unlikely to change that.

Keep enjoying pub and restaurant terrasses the way you are at the moment, and be patient :)

I'd be happy to address issues you raise, but it seems the path you advocate is the road we are already on. Restrictions are being lifted in phases, allowing the impact of each phase to be assessed. Within four weeks we'll have a whole raft of freedoms restored, hopefully including travel. You might feel the pace is too slow, but all I can do there is point you to the advice government has solicited from panels of eminent experts.

Some might find it to cathartic to rant against that expert advice, but rational response to such rants has become a game of whack-a-mole. The same meme of malevolent or deluded scientists hijacking the Covid-story bubbles up again. But i will have a go at tackling some of the issues you raise:
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We don't: honestly, hand on heart, we don't. We assess the consensus view of the panels of experts advising government. Generally that advice appears measured and reasonable. If we wish to find what data and opinions are driving that data, it is not too difficult to dig a little deeper.


My understanding is the advice from Sage is that further upticks in infections are expected later in the year, but they are unlikely to be as virulent as previous waves. They are not dealing with absolutes: this game is driven by uncertainty, expectations and probabilities.

Of course some expert opinions are at odds with others. But the idea behind the advisory groups is that they do what's on the tin: they present a view, or an agreed range of views, to government. Some of the experts suggest more caution than others do, but they reach a consensus they can agree to.

Outside fringe sites on social media, nobody is yelling doom. Nobody with any credibility is yelling doom; I am not yelling doom and I see no-one contributing to this thread yelling doom..

I'm looking forward to the day we hear that from the WHO. In the meantime, what is driving you to that conclusion?

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...6b3f6b4856.png
It's not a pandemic in the UK anymore. I didn't mean globally, most other countries are far behind its course. Even the BBC agrees.

And yet we have politicians/idiots (the words are interchangeable IMO) like the Welsh FM putting more pressure on BoJo to delay the opening up of travel restrictions, based on what is going on in India. I am so sick of their political game playing. It is right that travel to/from places with major infection issues should be curtailed, but that should have absolutely no bearing on restrictions to places with very low infection rates (eg Portugal), good vaccination progress (USA) or both (Israel).

The proposed traffic light system, if implemented clearly and affectively, is absolutely the right approach. However I fear it will be either way too conservative (due to issues like the above), or way too unclear/inflexible to be of any use to the travel industry that needs clear, early guidance to ramp up routes.

I also have no issue with tests on return, but again the system will be screwed to ensure Hancock's chums can cream their profits from it.

Who is the Welsh FM? He has no say in the matter. He can say whatever he wants, not our problem (unless you live in Wales).

I read this too, it's really good news.

He was just an example. One of the big issues is a lack of a decent opposition to hold the government to account. Starmer and co are beyond ineffective, and if anything more conservative on Covid that BoJo. My local labour MP in Sussex seems to have no interest in the issue, despite representing a constituency directly impacted by the LGW shutdown.