This is all guess work at present. Thinking about June though, the people holidaying then are typically older people, with children that have left home, who have been vaccinated and are core supporters of the current government. Will they punish them and then later in July allow the Jet2 generation to go relatively freely. I would like to think a green list in June will be in place for the likes of Portugal, Spain, Cyprus and all the popular haunts of the more senior generation.

I guess I see green vs. amber list countries as a second priority for just getting rid of the ban.

I'm still optimistic that the ban goes away May 17 even if there are few or no green list countries. The testing requirements are expensive but something I'm willing to live with. Self-isolation is annoying only that we wouldn't send our kid to nursery if he is supposed to be isolating. Otherwise, the lack of enforcement makes it irrelevant.

Assuming that's right, and challenging an earlier statement from CWS, my crystal ball would be the green list in May-June is limited to a small set of highly vaccinated countries at best. But then again, the senior set could still go under an amber system if the ban is lifted.

My facts, are, well, facts.

Excess deaths are a widely used comparative metric. No single source of data is fullproof, but South Africa’s COVID deaths to excess deaths ratio is completely out of line with most large democratic countries. As for “baseless”, hardly...
www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-africa-55674139

Why is the data you provided any more relevant for that matter?

You might also consider the “playing the ball rather than the man” and toning down the drama.

I understand all the dates and their meanings but many MOPs don't having had a quick glance at trip advisor today so they are understandably concerned and confused by the grabbing headlines, unfair on the travel industry yet again.

The data I have provided is actually data. I don't see how the article proves the data I provided to be incorrect? Are you saying South Africa's official case numbers are incorrect?

You're not playing the man when you jump on every post that you disagree with, trying to prove me wrong just for the sake of it?

Sorry, MOPs? Or was this a typo for MPs?

I would agree with you, some of these headlines are misleading. A number of people have been latching on to them on social media and going with the "travel is banned until July" line which is incorrect as you note.

Members of Public.

I hope they publish it early in the day, because once the pubs open, that's the other industry I intend to prop up in the post-covid world and I won't know what to book :p

That's the big unknown at the moment. Weeks on and all is very quiet as to whether the AZ vaccine prevents hospitalisation and loss of mortal coil in patients with this variant.

It is still very much a developing picture really. I don't think there is definitive evidence either way yet. There is new stuff coming out all the time so difficult to keep a track of everything. This is a new report on a recent study looking at the the AZ effectiveness against the South Africa variant.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...=featured_home

And some accompanying reporting https://www.forbes.com/sites/william...h=7f77e13f6526

In summary, a reduced efficacy against mild-to-moderate infections caused by the B.1.351 South Africa variant - there are some caveats to that of course. The Forbes article further puts these mutations in to some overall context:

I think we're going to see a similar situation to last year. Travel will likely be ok, for many people, off peak, but excuses will be found to cool down those major periods where families take their big, summer holidays. Don't be too surprised if that holiday in the Canaries is considered ok in late June/early July but not over the school holidays. Expect a similar cooling down policy around Eids, Hanukkah and so on (but not Christmas, because letting the red wall have their annual knees up is a vote winner, apparently).

It is not about being cautious, it is about managing risks. Unfortunately every choice will involve someone being upset (or dead).

Imagine 2 scenarios (with made up numbers):
(1) Scenario 1: We open up the borders and remove restrictions in the UK after everyone is vaccinated. --> 26% chance of lockdown next year as a vaccine escaping variant gets hold in the UK.
(2) Scenario 2: We maintain current restrictions on international travel --> 7% chance of lockdown next year as a vaccine escaping variant gets hold in the UK.

Which scenario would you pick? Personally I prefer weekend trips abroad compared to visiting the in-laws, but what if I had to choose for everyone in my family, town or country? Of course the choice is not black and white between 1 and 2, and the more experts that are involved the better the options, but it certainly is a difficult decision to make based on uncertain risks.

This pandemic has shown that the failure to make difficult decisions early means they become more difficult later on - perhaps travel is one example where the UK has swung too far (from open to everyone to totally stopped).

Travel to and from the UK has not been totally stopped. Essential travel (and the definition of 'essential' is very generous) is still permitted.

I don't think last year's restrictions were designed in that manner?

I was one of those who looked at "travel is banned until July" and incorrectly assumed travel is done till then. These headlines don't help. But neither do the politicians constant mixed messaging and putting things out into the public that travel will ultimately be banned for the summer. Instead of saying that, why don't they all just say wait till April 12th?