Well the way the government is going, with the scientists pretty much having all the power they want, I would expect many more countries are soon going to be on the red-list, or, we just institute a blanket hotel ban on all arrivals. I know this has been pushed for before and we haven't done it, however, restrictions on travel have gotten worse and worse.

If we track our progress on vaccines, cases, deaths, hospitalisations since mid-late January, things have gotten so much better, and now we are a week or two away from vaccinating everyone in the priority groups. Restrictions on travel have gotten tougher and tougher, and will most likely get tougher throughout the next few months and this year.

If this traffic light system actually goes ahead, it is likely to kick off sometime in June (that is probably an optimistic timeline) with no countries on the green list and maybe a handful on the amber list - which according to reports will mean the exact same number of tests and quarantine as we have now (4 tests + 10 days or 5 tests + 5 days), but travel may not be 'illegal'.

Even with the test requirements, they could make the process easier. At the moment anyone with a household member at school or college can collect boxes of lateral flow tests, administer themselves and report the results online. The system could be made more robust eg by requiring a scan of the test result rather than non-verified reporting, but there is scope for it to be used more widely.

I wonder how countries compare when the graphs are switched to second doses - presumably the UK is at least a little bit more in line with the others?

It is.

In percentage terms yes. But if you want to protect as many people as possible, it is the first dose which is most important since you get 55-70% protection from that already. You get much less bang for your buck from the second dose. 50% of 25 million (UK adults with first dose) is far better than 90% of 5.7% of 4.6m (Denmark).

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...e03843015d.png

Additionally the UK will move up that table fairly quickly now that we are getting on with second jabs - as there is a large portion of "partly vaxed" that will get added once they have their second dose. About 0.5% to 1% daily by my maths.

I'm pretty sure I saw Poonawalla on TV last week more or less confirming this to be the case. India can be just a tad heavy-handed when it comes to protectionism ......

Vaccine slowdown definitely coming:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-February.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56521415

I heard on my local radio station that over 50's can walk into one centre nearby for a jab without an appointment too so they're keen to get that group done.

Has there been any indication in % terms in the April supply reduction? I realise that there is a large number of people that will require dose No. 2 and that booking are not being taken for new appointments, but I was just interested in scale of the supply drop and thus the impact of 1st jabs and schedules going forward.

Hi,

Just got back from my local college ( Falkirk) for my first dose ( letter said 1626 appointment time). Very well organised with 2 entrances with a guard directing you to one of the entrances then another worker putting gel on your hands prior to going to reception to take details then another worker at then entrance to the vaccination room directing you to the collegue in a cubicle who took details on the ipad, survey questions and provided a leaflet on side effects etc before the jab.

Jab was the AZ.

As my mother was driving I did not have to wait 15mins and could go straight out the side entrance to the college.

So far no effects ( thought I felt a twinge in the right arm where the jab took place ( I'm left handed so chose the right arm) just now but maybe just my imagination). Normally go out for a run in the evening but might have a night off tonight

Regards

TBS

Saw a link to this report in the guardian, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the vaccination program as well as the need to keep some restrict the case levels the next few months:

https://assets.publishing.service.go...317_CC_JLB.pdf

Summary:
- vaccine effectiveness in over 75's from symptomatic covid-19 is 60% (after single dose)
- vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization is 80%.
- vaccine effectiveness against death is 85% (though I'm not sure I understand the numbers here - 6.6% of COVID-19 deaths were people vaccinated more than 14 days ago)
- both vaccines seem to have the same effectiveness, though I don't know if there is a different age profile of each vaccine. AZ could be a couple of percent more effective.

85% against death seems low. Curious if its a function of a result of (i) single vs. double dose, (ii) people becoming infected before or just after vaccination, or (iii) something else. But I guess my understanding was that the vaccines were nearly universally effective at preventing death (though again, that may require 2 doses + 3 weeks).

Boris is visiting India in a few days time and I have no doubt it's very high on the agenda - no point shouting about it in advance of the visit.

Going to pickup the next batch no doubt. How many of those little Vaccine bottle can he put in the little plastic fluids bag at security? :p

Let’s just hope he doesn’t quote Kipling within earshot of the locals like he did in Myanmar or we’re stuffed.