While weather forecasters have to use the scientific method to deduce what will be happening in the days and weeks ahead, they don't have to use political insight to justify or confirm their prognostications.

I wish that I could say the same for the Covid-19 predictions :)

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...force-12220149

Not sure what the linking rules are so apologies if broken..

”Every adult in the UK could receive both doses of a coronavirus vaccine by August or September "or maybe sooner if we need to", the head of the UK's vaccine taskforce has told Sky News.

Clive Dix, who runs the body which identifies and buys vaccines on behalf of the UK government, said he was sure there would not be any supply problems.”

They are vaccinating like crazy at the moment. Locally, when they’ve made their list for the day, they start making phone calls. A couple of older neighbours have had a “Could you pop in right now” call.

Speculative roadmap here, no mention of foreign travel:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...iness-May.html

One newspaper says Pubs April, the other Pubs May. Forget it let's just wait 6 days lol, Boris himself said no speculation please on Monday.

This is also the expectation of the UK government, as reported in the Daily Mail today. Domestic travel possibly returning to normal by July, with international travel following at a later, unspecified, date.

Friend in Ealing (London) who is 60 gets his first jab Sunday. His mate who is 18 months older gets his today. Neither have any health issues that would push them up the queue.

What I don't get us why we're locked up for longer than most EU countries and we have our amazing vaccinations? So what is the point if we can't get back to normal sooner?

The goalposts have changed. At the start of the year, we were told we'd likely be out of lockdown in late Feb after the vulnerable were vaccinated, if the target was reached. The target was reached two days earlier, cases, hospitalisations and deaths are down, yet, the news from government is more dire now more than ever.

Obviously we need to see what the road-map says come Monday, but I fear travel will be way down the list. My biggest fear is that travel is finished until everyone is fully vaccinated.

And there's sod all we can do about it!

Raab has confirmed holiday/travel guidance will be coming on Monday and that everyone will get a clearer sense of direction. My hunch will be that the government will provide for domestic holidays later in the spring and international holidays in the summer assuming x, y and z don't happen or assuming a, b, and c do happen. In other words, I think it will be contingent good news. I do not see an announcement basically saying no holidays or no travel for England at this point as being likely.

I hope your hunch is right. You don't think they'll push for only allowing travel once the UK is completely vaccinated or allow travel in and out for people who have been vaccinated?

And the definition of "summer" can easily be changed too, anytime from May to August.

My understanding of the roadmap generally is that it is not going to have a bunch of fixed dates. I understand there will be some "no earlier than" and probably some more general statements. My hunch is that BJ does not want to prohibit summer holidays. Popular support for full border closure will wain and it puts the large number of expats in England and London in a quite difficult position in terms of continued time away from family etc. I think he wants to allow it if its generally safe and I think his statement a week to 10 days ago about being "optimistic" is likely the "clearer" view that we will get. That's my thinking. Hopefully not overly optimistic.

Some reports suggest 5 stages with four week gaps. If stage 1 is schools on March 8, that would push the last stage to the end of June. Given the promise of clarity, one could potentially surmise worst case (if the dates hold) is international travel restrictions lifting is stage 5. All UK adults should have had at least one dose by then as well.

Does domestic here mean UK wide or not, I wonder.