Hope this isn't a sign of things to come in our lockdown easing announcement next week, from the Telegraph Ms Sturgeon speaking today:"Ms Sturgeon added that the Scottish Government aims to produce a new road map out of lockdown next week - coinciding with a similar document from Westminster.

She said it is likely to advise against booking Easter holidays overseas or in Scotland - but suggested staycations may be possible by the summer."


Implying no overseas holiday this summer?

I'm genuinely intrigued about the effect of the new Kent and Sth African strains/variants/mutations. We have been told the Kent strain is 70% more infectious than the 'original' strain, however since Lockdown 3 began (Jan 4th) till now, six weeks later, our new daily cases have dropped by 80% based on a 7-day average. From the peak in Lockdown 1, which was approximately mid-April, it took about 2 months to drop by 80%. Also, when we look at testing, you will likely get more cases when you test more. At the start of January, we were averaging about 500k tests compared to 620k now - an increase of 25%.

If this Kent virus is so much more virulent, and we are in the middle of winter (which is the best time for the virus to spread), shouldn't we be seeing a much slower rate of decline? Furthermore, as many here have noted, Lockdown 3, which we are currently in, is no where near as tough as Lockdown 1. Also tougher border controls only came into place in the last couple of weeks. We also know traffic has been much more than in Lockdown 1 and there are more lax rules.

In South Africa, where apparently the strain is more virulent than the Kent strain - we see the same thing. Since their peak in mid-Jan, a month later they are down by 90%. I know they had tough lockdowns around Xmas/New Years, but restrictions have eased over the last few weeks.

Anyone know why? I'm keen to understand what is going on.

Lots of factors, so very hard to say.

Rules are more lax, but more targeted as we understand the virus better. More testing, but the testing is less targeted than first time round, so likely to find a lower proportion of positive cases. Mask wearing wasn't mandated until July (and is becoming more common outside). Vaccine rollout started in December, with the 3-week lag for effects likely to ramp up. People have had time to adjust to spending less time with others indoors. Lessons have been learnt in how care homes deal with residents and infections.

This is just guesswork, though!

Is it possible the scientists also got it wrong with how virulent these other strains are?

I'd guess reasonable guesswork in this case. One would hope those who know things now know what components of a lockdown have maximum effect on spread. It was telling last year that when the government introduced tiers, meeting in a friend's garden for beers went from allowed to not allowed. So perhaps a more targeted understanding of human behaviour where alcohol is in play.

I just read this. Absolutely horrible if that is the case. But everything we have heard seems to point to the fact that foreign travel is off the cards till possibly very late 2021.

Yes, disinhibition is sure to be a risk factor!

However, you can't necessarily read particular links between activities included in, or excluded from tiers and lockdowns. Epidemiologists can really only present politicians with a menu of measures that they believe will reduce the R rate - they're the ones who have to determine the socioeconomic impact. So you get seemingly arbitrary combinations of measures as a result.

No model is perfect, particularly when human behaviour is a factor.

However, given the number and breadth of models around Coronavirus transmission (as part of the mitigation effort), I suspect this is a less likely explanation.

Given the divergence on the red list/hotel quarantine - one could certainly see divergence on foreign holidays between England and Scotland.

BJ is going to have a very hard time keeping at least England (particularly given the number of expats in London if nothing else) on a hard no leisure travel its illegal line for very long if things keep getting better. I don't see that going past June 1 at the very latest in England. Sure there may be quarantine and testing on return. But not a hard ban.

The analysis of transmission rates was still ongoing when Boris gave that "our virus is better" press conference, so I wouldn't necessarily blame the scientists.

Today Nicola Sturgeon confirmed the current situation for international travel is still likely to be around in summer, with a 'maybe' for staycations only...

Precisely. Boris went out with 70% because that's the number he heard from a briefing (based on a single paper, not yet peer reviewed). On the same day, Hankie went also public with a "the virus is out of control in England" message in the Commons. And before one could say polymerase chain reaction... we were pariahs.

It's perhaps a coincidence that, since then, BoJo hasn't been talking about science anymore.

We're in February. Forecasts for travel in Easter, let alone the summer, have the same validity as weather forecasts.

so what has happened since? have there been any updates based on all the additional data on whether any of these new strains are more transmissible?

From reading the 'facts' thread, it seems most research is saying that it's between 30 and 50% more transmissible but, on the other hand, it's all not certain. Meanwhile we have the newer UK variant, and the newer-newer UK variant... go figure.