ffay005

I don't see AY & A380 as a very likely scenario, but I surely don't have anything against spending a couple of minutes speculating about it.

The A380 hasn't proved to be a big success. I believe the biggest drawback is that airlines don't want to fly one huge plane from hub to hub, they want to fly direct between smaller airports because customers value nonstops and they want to have more frequencies between the hubs because customers value a schedule where they can pick a flight that suits them.

AY, on the other hand, will only fly to and from HEL. And if they add frequencies, they will fly on a very similar schedule (like NRT in the summer with two dailies, or BKK in the winter). So the aforementioned reasons why A380 isn't a success don't really apply to AY.

AY could probably acquire 1–2 planes very affordably. And they would probably be able to fill them year-round, too, with ticket prices similar to those of today. They might even benefit from having less J seats than they do now on two A330/A350s – less upgrades, more Y seats. A AY A380 would most definitely be a Scandic of the Skies karvalakkimalli, ie J seats similar to those on A350 (hopefully with a little more legroom) and Y+/Y similar to today's A350, no F and no real premium economy.

But would it really be feasible to operate a fleet of only 1–2 A380? Flight crews, mechanics, spare parts, irrops... Probably not.

What about landing fees? Is there a big difference in price if you operate two A350 vs. one A380 to NRT, for example?

intuition

Yeah, that was my take on it too!


I think one big part of the non-success is that the slot situation hasn't become as dire as suspected. As long as there are two slots many airlines will appreciate giving their travellers the option of selecting departure time. Also, with two slots you can adapt to fluctuations in demand.
Like the AY61/62 slots. Fly two dailies when demand supports it, cut back to one when it doesn't. You can't just fly half the A380.

I think Hub/spoke versus point-to-point has less to do with it. The point-to-point model is a model of thinness - where other airlines only sees profitability connecting pax through hub, the LCC flies small aircraft P2P.
If a P2P pair of cities can sustain A380, then they would be someone's hub sooner or later!

As for demand, I guess Thailand is the obvious choice for a true scandic in the sky. NRT is a surprise with 3 flights within 40 minutes of each other. That is somewhere between 721 and 772 seats, ie more than any currently existing A380 config (Emirates has a 615 seater on typical scandic routes).


True, A380 would be a very rare bird in AY maintenance, but as far as crew I guess Airbus claims commonality and some simple re-training. AY could also team up with buddy BA for the A380 service.

What I think is cool about an AY A380 fleet is the range. It can reach most of the world (even though it is pretty unlikely there ever will be demand for any direct HEL-SYD or HEL-SCL or HEL-CPT) While I'm dreaming, the AY A380 surely must re-introduce first class and sport a sauna and a spa.

Courmisch

HEL has no gates capable of accomodating an A380 and I don't suppose there is any in the current expansion plan either?

(Sure an A380 can land at HEL, as LH already did, but only for emergency situation.)

ffay005

I believe there will be one once the Non-Schengen extension is ready. Wikipedia states it as gate 49. Akbar al-Baker also humorously referred to this during the QR press conference: http://www.lentoposti.fi/uutiset/al_...sinki_reitille .

Flythe96flag

Surely it would be more in line with Finnair's and Finavia's MO to bus pax to and from a prospective A380. No need to build an expensive jetbridge, think of the savings!

ffay005

VST will be cancelled: http://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/vas...tsens-styrelse

I wonder if this breaks the record as the most short-lived AY route ever. Will SDA be on second place from now on?

intuition

Very odd interview. After three weeks of traffic they can tell ends won't meet?!
If you only have three weeks endurance, you shouldn't run an airport.

Also, he claims the airport can be profitable even without flights, as long as they have a competitive cost structure.

I smell some politics involved here. Maybe they wanted to remove aiport leadership and needed an excuse.

aama

This is a good question. How many stand arrivals would be needed to reach the cost of a A380 jetbridge

Justinus

True. A few years ago AY cancelled MMK and LYS before these were ever started.

At least MMK would today be worth reconsidering...

deissi

LYS was cancelled because AY did not get permission to fly there from Norwegian authorities.

http://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ind...e-longyearbyen

ff_flyer

To be pedant, are we discussing LYR here?

OH-LGG

LYS and LYR both cancelled before start.

deissi

Sorry, mixed up LYR and LYS.

Courmisch

LYS is inside the EU and, AFAIK, AY has statutory rights to operate to/from there. But it got cold feet with the economic downturn of 2008 and cancelled it.

LYR - something else.

ffay005

AY flew to MMK via RVN a long time ago. 15 years, maybe.

What about KUL? I think they never started that one either, or did they? It was supposed to be flown as HEL-KUL-SIN.