Air Transat is a year round increase.
Air Canada left due to a flooding of the MAN market. Air Transat, Thomas Cook, Zoom and Globespan along with Air Canada meant over saturation, so, it was hardly surprising Air Canada pulled away.
Now with the market re-stabilised, Air Canada have stated intentions of running MAN-YYZ once more, and especially so now they will no longer be getting feed for MAN-LHR from bmi.
Please read the link I provided in my post RE MAN being 11th largest TATL gateway, given you are saying MAN is a small market, the size of the market according to volume will surprise you.

But nobody has stated that EK will be required to fill a B77W or A380, we are talking about a TRANSIT hub to exploit the rights to Canada. The aircraft will already be pretty much full on arrival into MAN, so, the MAN market is not really needed. MAN is in the frame for this speculation due to its facilities to handle any delays or cases where a flight may have to terminate for tech/crewing reasons.

Again, this is not what is being discussed, certainly not by me anyway........

Am I correct in understanding what you are getting to is that MAN is simply a stopover point for passengers from Dubai to Canada, and its simply to be able to take advantage of the Openskies policy Canada has with the UK?
If this is true; the UAE-Canada O&D traffic is minimal, it’s the connecting traffic from MENA/South East Asia which is the primary market EK has tapped into. EK will not benefit as much by having passengers routed DEL-DXB-MAN-YVR, as they will lose out to competitors, for example DEL-FRA-YVR... on LH. EK will lose out big time. EK has no desire to start a flight from DXB via another city to get to Canada, it’s not that traffic which EK wants, there are plenty of other quicker and cheaper options that are available. The only viable way EK would make the route profitable is by tapping into the MAN-Canada market which you implied isn't necessary... my thoughts are the opposite.

Yes. Until an openskies policy with the UAE is arranged, to have a stop over at a point with an openskies policy will be the ONLY way to expand in Canada, whether its just extra flights to YYZ, or, new routes to YUL/YYC/YVR/YEG.

If the price is right, people will excuse a transit stop. The whole basis of the EK operation is for people to travel 1 stop to their final destination at a good price. It is wrong to say EK will not consider a stop en-route, as there are plenty of examples on 1 stop flights in the EK system: HAM-JFK (when they had it), LUS-HRE, ACC-ADB, ADD-ENT, BKK-HKG, CMB-MLE just to name a few

Well, if they had to use MAN for extra seats, then they could. We are not talking about filling up a B77W/A380 here, by the time the aircraft gets to MAN, for the MAN-Canada O&D, Emirates will be looking to fill an A320/B757, which MAN is more than capable of doing. Like I have said, the MAN market is bigger than you think, and to say it is tiny is just ignorant. Yes, its tiny compared to say, LHR-Canada, but, is bigger than quite a few other markets.

Knowing how conservative the Canadian government can be, and Air Canada having it's way when it comes to Aviation Policy with competing foreign airlines, I think EK is better off waiting for the next elections.

The last thing EK want to do is rile the Canadians more than they have, and lose access to they're much needed airspace, hence there goes the viable/profitable US expansion plan aswel, especially the direction jet fuel is going in.

For the time being Emirates are better off adding much more US cities to they're network, and having Westjet, Alaskan, and JetBlue feed them until Canada opens up. Little risk, better end results.

Flying a 77W to Buffalo/Vermont would be more viable, than the MAN opition.

Let's not forget the Dreamliner is in service now. An AC direct flight from any where in Canada to South Asia will be very tough to compete with, no matter how much better the price/service EK might offer.

Funny you bring that up. There's a thread on the AA forum about their ORD-DEL service going bust despite the high loads and fares. An a YYZ-DEL is still one stop for anyone flying beyond DEL. Also Canada- India is low yielding whereas EK can fill flights to both countries with some expensive tickets too.

Not just that, but AI stated they will be cutting some flights to Canada aswel.

The AC/Canadian Government insiders have been stalling everything with the UAE all this time until the Dreamliner kicks in. They knew EK would bring a cannon to a gun fight.

How to get more access to Canada is the million dollar question cause they're the cop, judge, jury, and exacutioner all in one.

Perhaps - but I think you're reading too much into it. I expect most Air Agreements signed by the UAE ask for fifth freedom rights. The UAE signed one with Ireland a few months back, and I think that if they were to operate flights from Europe to the USA again (they used to operate HAM-NYC a few years back) then perhaps they may prefer to use DUB as the European staging point, given that they could benefit from US Customs and Border pre-clearance there.

Another problem is if EK starts on route between MAN-YYZ for example, this gives grief to AC as they will complain about how they could be operating the route with their own metal/future aircraft, hence the current situation with DXB-YYZ. I honestly don't think this is anyway to relieve tension from the situation between Canada and the UAE, by a UAE airline coming back and (In AC's view) stealing more traffic from them, if this happens, (with current politics) this won't get the UAE anywhere with future negotiations.

The other situation here is that HAM-JFK was not filled to the brim with traffic originating from other destinations beyond DXB on its DXB-HAM-JFK run, most direct passengers saw EK201 and 203 as better options. Of course this situation is different in the case theres only a thrice weekly EK241 to YYZ, but as NOIR says:

Plus the variety of other options available EK just can't compete with fares that can be driven down by cheaper options by one stops. And in the end of the day:

Why would EK take the risk with a DXB-MAN-YYZ and use an additional aircraft for this expansion, than do DXB-ORD or DXB-IAD or the many other options which could prove successful, when in the end of the day once the 788s arrive for AC, they'll probably be able to negotiate non-stops? It seems just seems like EK wouldn't see the effort in creating this just to show the Canadians they can have one more EK tail in Canada, and possibly compromise any future negations?

I completely see your point, regarding the market size of MAN to Canada, and even the huge Skywards members market that I'm sure would use MAN-Canada to get to N. America, but in the end of the day is it a market EK wants, which could have consequences on future expansion into Canada? Maybe it might be worth waiting until after expansion rights can be obtained to YYZ/YUL/YYC/YVR etc..

Exactly, so many better options with upcoming new metal at the moment that it's not even worth focusing on Canada for now.

Everything has it's time, and Canada's time will come.

The USA has no issues, they fly multiple frequencies non-stop so I doubt they would start adding tag-ons to the USA.

The main point I was putting across is the Canada issue, and the 'advantage' of US Customs/Pre clearance obviously has no benefit to this corner of the market.

I agree. EK seem to be a carrier that 'does it right or doesn't bother at all'. I suppose the 5th Freedom rights are a 'just in case measure', but, it depends on how fast the wheels of change turn in Canada. Carriers such as Cathay are expanding quite rapidly in Canada, while EK/EY are stuck at their 3 weekly flights. Suppose it becomes a case of how desperate EK become to tap into the Indian subcontinent connections.

Whilst this is an EK thread, the above scenario of UAE-EU-CA/US flights is something I would expect EY to do.

EK can't simply operate flights from the UK to Canada. The UK/UAE air services agreement in which the UK grants fifth freedom rights to Emirates doesn't obviate EK's need to obtain a similar freedom from the government of the "other" country. And EK, being neither a British nor a European carrier, cannot operate flights between the UK/EU and Canada as it is not a party to the EU/Canada open skies agreement.

I can completely agree there, if there's a UAE airline to try AE-EU-CA/US flight I can definitely see EY doing this.
Also despite this being a frequent flyer forum, I've also herd that despite sending an A380 to YYZ for high passenger loads its limited by cargo capacity and that the 77W used to make a higher profit on the route due to the cargo revenue being much higher than it is now; due to the 77W capacity. Maybe we might see a DXB-MAN-YYZ cargo flight with the 77F? It might make sense as, if MAN is put to 2 daily 380s and 1 daily 77W this is an increase in passenger seats, but drop in cargo capacity, it could make sense to fill a 77F on its way to Canada if there is enough cargo to justify a dedicated cargo service to YYZ via MAN. I could see this happening, but I'm not informed on cargo operations; other destinations such as AMS might be more applicable... I don't know, only a suggestion!

Are memories so short? They just pulled out of the AUH-BRU-YYZ route a few years ago.

A list that should help EK zero in on cities missing from their US network ;)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/where-...ent--live.html

True - also back in the day when they used to fly a 332 on the route!

I don't think your link works :confused: