As an American carrier, I wouldn't focus my sights on an A380 when our very own Boeing is churning out B747-8s.

Didn't you hear Clint Eastwood? It's halftime America so go buy American and help the freakin economy.

These routes survive on / need frequency though. 1 x daily A380 or even 2 or 3x daily just wouldn't cut it for JFK-LAX

Not quite the case with MAN, firstly I don’t think there would be a high enough load from MAN to Canada, AC, MT and TS have tried these markets overtime, and in AC's case they've completely dropped it. AC is quite well known in the UK, they have something like 9 flights to LHR a day. MT is definitely well known and they can only attract the seasonal demand. Secondly, low yielding traffic is also a case, hence the reason when EK started MAN they didn't fly F class to MAN, and have only recently introduced it. I don't think this market would be high yielding enough to make it viable for EK to try transatlantic with.

Sorry should have put this properly the first time, I meant to imply the fact that to fly DXB-MAN a cockpit crew of only 2 is required, but if they operated MAN-YYZ or MAN-YVR they would need a cockpit crew of 3, thus requiring an additional cockpit crew member, which is a (economical) waste for the first flight. It just gets complicated with having the additional crewing required for the second sector of the flight which isn't favourable for EK or their pilots.

HAM-JFK is definitely not a representation of the 'market' but I think it just goes to show the success EK has had in the past with brand awareness in already established markets; and that it wasn't so successful in the past.

No - Calgary would definitely be nonstop from Dubai with a 77W, EK already showed the figures of traffic from DXB-YYC and it definitively needed a nonstop route, hence the big push for more Canadian access to the destinations of YYZ, YYC, and YVR. YUL I'm sure would also be high on the priority after QRs success.

Then why haven't they bought any 747-8is yet? Anyone (American carriers) even planning to buy any?

However, Air Transat this year increased MAN by 7 flights a week. Adding 2 flights to YYZ, and then 3 weekly to YVR and 2 weekly to YYC.

.

And is purely a charter holiday airline, so what were you expecting exactly?

Well, MAN has gone for low yielding to the 2nd highest yielding in UK after LHR (bypassing LGW by quite an amount), and is third in Europe behind CDG, so, not half as bad as you are making out. Even Etihads MAN profits rose by some 40% in 2011, so, MAN is no longer the 'low yielding' route it once was.
A 4th daily flight to MAN is being introduced in 2013, as well as a 2nd daily A380, so, these misconceptions of MAN not being able to produce any good money need to be wiped aside.

Its not just the 'big capital cities' that make money these days.

But even in the few years since JFK-HAM was dropped, the nature of the beast of EK means it is becoming more well known by the day.
In the UK for example, they are well known due to the sponsoring of such things as Arsenal FC, London cablecar, Newcastle control tower, visit Australia adverts on TV and general advertising such as its dedicated gate in Manchester, taxi sponsorships and the likes.

But anyway, the point is, Emirates would not need to be 'supremely well known', as Manchester is not a hub to gain extra pax, or improve profitability of flights, it was merely being discussed as a 'transit point' to exploit the rights to gain more Canadian cities.
Even if it was needed to improve loads, for the flights, Manchester would probably need to attract very few passengers to fill the plane, as you would hope DXB-Canada would fill the plane to around 60-70%, so pressure to fill the cabon would be minimal.

Filling any seats DXB bound would be absolutely no issue for MAN either, in eith F/J or Y cabins (all 3 EK flights ex MAN were completely full in the past 5 days, no seats spare whatsoever!)

I didn't know that they were high yielding either! About the 4th daily and 2nd A380, have you got any more information or sources? Another reason for EK's success in MAN is no competition on the route whatsoever. No-one wants to connect to go to DXB from here, and no-one else operates the route, unlike the routes people traditionally associate EK's success with (e.g. LHR, KHI, DEL, BOM, MAA, other Indo-Pakistani routes, SE Asian routes and Middle Eastern routes)

Not to forget cricket, with the Emirates Riverside Durham ICG.

By the time EK focus, and expand more in the United States, South America, maybe Panama City, and Mexico City new election will take place in Canada. A year has already passed by since the Conservative government won, and the next couple of years will pass faster than we think.

Any way Canada/UAE ties are getting better by the day.

EK aren't really interested in O&D from MAN. It's all about connections to OZ/NZ/India etc. I doubt more than 20% are MAN-DXB passengers. It's the same with EY and QR.

What do you mean no competition whatsoever? EK is very much under pressure from competition ex-MAN, both to DXB and onwards.
Did you know more people travel Qatar MAN-DOH-DXB than on EK MAN-DXB non stop?
Also, for transfer traffic, EK is under competition for the far east/Australia traffic 1 stops from BA/LX/LH/AF/KL/EY/QR/SQ/AY and more.

The 2nd daily A380 on the EK19/20 is slated for June 2013, but recently I have heard this may be brought forward to October 2012 if deliveries and economics allow.

The 4th daily flight is slated for 2013 some time, and will run as follows:

EK023 DXB 09:55 MAN 13:45 B77W (3 class suites) Daily 1/6/13
EK024 MAN 16:25 DXB 03:35 B77W (3 class suites) Daily 1/6/13

Also forgot to add:

Did you know that as of 2012, Manchester is the 11th largest Transatlantic market by volume in Europe, and 27th in Europe/Americas combined, putting it ahead of places like Dublin, Oslo, Copenhagen, Brussels, Orlando and Rio De Janerio?

I meant in comparison to the other airports, but yes, I did exaggerate and was wrong in doing so. They do have connection competition from those airlines as well, and they do have some MAN-DXB competition.


Sorry, what does the 1/6/13 thing mean?
Do you think that such a large increase in capacity would easily be successful as well? I think that if one of those flights was onward as had been talked about it would be, but otherwise?

True, so what would happen if an airline from India launched a route to Manchester?

Emirates would probably use the yields produced off non MAN-India routes to heavily discount MAN-India and price said carrier off the market.

Means its due to start 1st June 2013, but, like the 3rd daily flight at MAN, could be brought forward (3rd daily was due to start Sept 2011, but, due to QR/EY increases, was brought forward)

Well, like the LHR EK29/30, the EK23/24 is a 'relief' flight for the EK17/18, as the seating capacity on that flight is 517, and is very often going out with 515-517 pax on board.

Of course. Now I feel like a fool. :(

But most likely just seasonal increase, plus Air Transat is purely a charter holiday airline as well? In my understanding AC couldn’t produce the loads to stay on the route with a 762/763 in the past; where would all of this traffic come from then to fill a 77W/380? EK doesn't have the interest for Canada - MAN O&D traffic, it’s like why EK hasn't started routes from Australia/Asia eastbound to N. America, it’s in no interest to them at the moment.

But this is no indication of the Canada - MAN market; it may still be low yielding. Yes I realise that overall it is increased, but this can only be judged on the current routes to MAN which none of which operate to Canada by 'full service' carriers. In addition to this its hard to judge on the Canada market, as sometimes that can be low yielding in the premium classes, hence the small configuration of J class seats and lack of F class seats on some of ACs aircraft being in specific their 333s and 763s... EK lives on high yielding traffic; the Canada market might not be able to provide this for traffic wishing to travel just to Manchester, as it is obvious the intentions of this would be seeking O&D traffic to Manchester from Canada and a small amount to DXB, rather than onwards from DXB. I'm not surprised about a 4th daily to MAN as it seems appropriate given their loads for this week anyhow, as well as their forecasted loads for the coming weeks.

I realise that the UK market is well aware of the EK brand, but I think it’s fair to say that the Canadian market however differs from this. EK hardly sponsors in Canada (with the exception of tennis in Montreal) but focuses its marketing mainly on the A380 and the surrounding of this, overall EK isn't a very well known brand in Canada. I agree Arsenal - The Emirates stadium, the soon to see Cable Car, all excellent ways to show their brand, but could they do just as well in Canada to attract Canada-UK traffic? Plus UAE carriers don't have the best reputation in Canada now a days due to the public's misconception of the UAE airlines bullying Harper and his government - due to the press.

DXB-Canada is definitley not a large market. Passengers most likely won't be interested if their trip YYZ-DXB-DEL has to have an additional stop in MAN, where direct YYZ-DEL or YYZ-FRA-DEL offer more direct service. Therefore I dont think its likely to see EK with 60-70% load factor on through traffic Canada-DXB.

+1 on this for sure. ^ Then why would EK be in any interest of Canada to MAN O&D traffic? Its not their business model!

You'd be surprised. In the case of expatriates, most of them are willing to have up to 2/stops (or 1 connection) as long as the fares are significantly cheaper.