I don't think omicron is not "containable". I think what is correct is that it is nigh impossible to contain it with current measures. Everybody needs to wear n95 or better masks (or respirators, etc). HEPA purifiers need to be installed everywhere indoors. If you can upgrade the infrastructure I think it can be contained.
Oh, and they should probably figure out who is contagious before they have symptoms. That's a pretty essential aspect as well. But hey, we can measure the oxygen saturation in the bloodstream without actually taking blood, so if someone can figure out a non-invasive way of screening everyone for COVID as well ...

What makes her so sure? In Shanghai at least, lockdowns occur at the neighborhood, compound and building levels. They based on specific positive cases.

[QUOTE=moondog;34073456]As much as she cannot be so sure, you cannot be certain of that either. You rely on information provided by the government about positive cases.
Her point is what is the likelihood that the place everybody goes, the CBD if you will, doesn't have any cases so doesn't need to be locked down? When all around the areas are locked down. Seems awfully far-fetched to say it is a magical COVID-free zone.

Of course I can't be positive there are no positive cases in Tianhe, but based on my experiences up here, the government freaks out about cases whenever they pop up. They aren't secretive about it. They don't play favorites (e.g the JA mayor is the most powerful in Shanghai and the JA Kerry Center is one of the most prestigious buildings in the city).

ETA: It just occurred to be that if Tianhe is sweeping known positive cases under the rug, and there is an outbreak there (these tend to hard to keep secret), heads will surely roll. I'm guessing those responsible for reporting care more about their livelihoods than economic interests or pride.

All these qurantines and travel restrictions have finally did it to me. I have exited China after spending almost entire month of Jan (Started in San Francisco) and better part of CNY in some forms of quarantines, isolation, 17 tests, etc..., Once I got cleared in early Feb, I packed and packed and got my stuff (tangibles and intangibles) out of China. Now back home in the US.

My employer has moved my personnel file to HK, but that is another black hole at the moment. So, at the moment I am roaming between US, Singapore and Australia in the coming months, and waiting to enter HK once the cases are managible.

I have learned a great of deals from many of you in the China forum, and received amazing amount of tips over the years.

I will continue to follow this forum, particulary this thread. You never know I may be back once Covid is no longer impacting China.

Thank you all!

You're certainly not the only one who has understandably thrown in the towel for the time being.

With any luck, the China forum will return to its former glory at some point this year, though I'm not counting on it.

Thank you for all of your insights and safe travels!

Yeah. you have reached the breaking point ;)

It is no fun to be in China now. Random, and forced quarantines would occur anytime, anywhere.

I haven't got to that point yet, but I am close.

Currently I am booked on UA 857 May 8 SFO-PVG for summer vacation. I am constantly monitoring the situation in China.

You have been a great contributor to this forum. Appreciated. Wish you the best.

As far as when China will return to normal? My guess is: 2035.

I think this is one of the most interesting threads on FT right now.

Like others, I feel that the strict 0-covid strategy has run it's course. It was doable (and the right thing) till and including Delta, and I say that countries like NZ who were strict till Omicron and giving everyone a vaccination chance, but now have been moved to "living with covid" did the right thing.

China's policies right now have probably two problems:
-They've never really moved their mindset from "covid is the devil" away, like for example Singapore did once it became clear Omicron, while not being a joke, is mostly fairly mild even to unvaccinated people, and the health system can take care of those that DO need medical care. Singapore has both measurements up (including masks outside, and boy do they suck.. but it's not strictly enforced and I can tell you that after 9pm and some Tigers, less than half will wear their masks correctly.. in Singapore, of all the cities ;) ) as well as plenty of testing, but manages easily to have 15k cases per day. Open borders to travel, and everything. I think that's the right approach if you don't fully want covid to go "all wild" (like, most western countries have decided) but don't want your economy to keep taking massive hits.

-Due to this ultra-strict 0-covid strategy, they are indeed using lots of ressources for testing / quarantine which could have been used instead to roll out a (well-working, like Moderna/BioNTech) booster shot for everyone asap. I certainly believe the Chinese pharmaceutical companies could have done so themselves (and I believe what moondog says it's true, they literally have ready-to-use factories) with some cooperation. THIS is the gamebreaker imho. China should have everyone getting their booster shots and then change their strategy, rather than building up the slow-but-steady wave that's now hitting them.

In short, a strategy that worked well for 2 years has run it's course, and I wonder if they're changing it at some time. It looks like for the CPC, it would feel like "swallowing it's pride" by doing so, which imho is nonsense, since Covid requires a flexible approach. I do understand they're afraid of long-term issues (Long covid) that aren't entirely documented, and indeed could be a rather nasty thing especially if you can keep getting re-infected with Omicron many times, but at some point, there simply isn't an alternative.

China right now seems to be becoming a giant "experiment", if it's possible to contain Omicron - and it looks more and more like those (like myself) said that it won't be reasonable possible are in the right. Yes, as others said before, it will be possible to even contain Omicron, but doing so would mean extremely strict measurements (not much unlike what Wuhan had to endure) - but for huge areas, and an almost complete travel-ban within China. And still cases will slip, since Omicron is such a tricky virus, great at hiding and spreading.

I'm looking at two/three outcomes right now:

-China eventually agrees that Omicron can't be reasonably stopped, uses full ressources for booster shots, and till done so forces old people into local "quarantine" (the most vulnerable persons) while the health system is managing to handle the cases, and eventually adapts a "living with covid" strategy alike many other Asian countries (Still measurements up, but not all-crazy ones)

-China locks down brutal on everyone left and right yet to no avail. Travel ban domestically, economy suffers a lot, people are getting fed up eventually at the permanent measurements, and after some months, it might get tricky. The whole world is taking hard due to China no longer providing reasonable on-time delivery of goods.

-The hard lockdowns do work somehow, the economy isn't hit so hard, and they're learning enough on how to contain Omicron like the variants up to Delta before. Eventually return to how it's been through most parts of 2020 and 2021, with China gradually getting "disconnected" from the world as everyone else is "living with covid".

I certainly hope for the first outcome. Second one would be bad for everyone across the world (We've seen some pre-lude of that the last two years), and third one would make China and the world understanding each other less, creating a non-covid and a living-with-covid world over time.

So what's your bets?

Good analysis. Option 1 isn't feasible. The data was just released from late 2020 phase 1 trial of ARCoV (domestic mRNA vaccine) and phase 3 is not released/keeps getting postponed. Basically, it's highly likely that ARCoV doesn't work for Omicron (if it works at all). https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journ...21)00280-9.pdf They can't get enough Moderna/BioNTech even if they wanted to (politics notwithstanding) and distribution will take a long time.

Option 2 is already happening. This is the only tool they can use. Unfortunately the correct thing to do with this strategy is overreact rather than underreact; if you overreact people are unhappy in the short term but it might be successful. If you underreact people are fine in the short term but it runs the risk of the strategy failing completely. Part of the problem is that they keep firing all the local government leads when there is an outbreak, which generally leads to more incompetence over time.

If you read the latest Zhang Wenhong (from 13 March) the TLDR is they do want to move away from Zero Covid but also that they need to control the virus. So basically both sides, or nothing at all. For what it's worth, he does mention that it is becoming less deadly. I don't know if the average person cares or reads these articles.
Full text: ???????_????_???????????????????????????. Relevant part translated below (lol @ daily mail as a source)

Anyway back to bets:

• 70% chance Omicron wins, uncontrollable cases, basically what's happening in HK. A large problem is that this will likely cause domestic political instability
  • 70% chance border starts to open by fall
  • 30% chance politics gets in the way and it's still closed (like the current situation in HK)
• 30% chance lockdowns win. Same outcome as 2020 and 2021 then.

There are inherently logistical limits. You have to get food etc to the people.

Exactly. Easing up would be the sensible approach if they had a vaccinated population. They don't, however.

And the case counts continuing to climb say they either need to clamp down harder (how are they to handle the logistics??) or that Omicron is going to beat them.

Now in China, and I believe things are going to get crazy here in the next few week/months. I would normally book a flight a.s.a.p. and get out. UNFORTUNATELY, I have commitments here that will keep me here for another two/three weeks.
I suspect it will be exactly in this time-period that will make leaving more and more difficult. :rolleyes:

Ironically, it's a deja-vue, as I was in almost the exact same position two years ago, when I was in China at end of January 2020, looking at United and thinking they might stop all flights any day now. Rebooked on Cathay via HKG and left Feb 1.

It took a while to get used to being effectively stuck in Shanghai (not completely, of course), but I've learned to adapt and am honestly pretty happy. That having been said, my prolonged search for food yesterday was a first-time experience for me and compounds (offices too) are getting locked down without notice; this really is happening. Imagine eating dinner at a friend's house and discovering that you're going to be spending two weeks there:D

I remember January 2020. I was in China when everything got locked down.

I flew United PVG-EWR on January 31, shortly before Trump shut down China flights.

This has been perhaps my worst China week in my 15+ years of being here. Company goes wfh but boss overseas made it clear he still expects normal budgeted growth (over 40% growth this year are our targets) with no hiccups despite our factory shutting for a few days. Xi Jinping’s crusade against tech and love for Russia has erased about 20% of my portfolio in a few days time and I’m living in shanghai under the constant threat of lockdown. Already taken 3 tests this week and just waiting for the hammer to drop and snowmen to appear at my compound gates.

I’ve lived here and loved this place for a long time, but man things are changing fast and they aren’t changing for the better. Not really sure what to do but I thought I’d vent to you all.

I know this thread is entitled "Current China Entry policy", but I have a question on EXIT:
What's the best way to plan an exit in the next few weeks?
Are Shanghai domestic & international flights still leaving/arriving as scheduled for the next few weeks, and can one still currently fly PEK ----> SHA/PVG?