Originally Posted by narvik (Post 34076631)

I know this thread is entitled "Current China Entry policy", but I have a question on EXIT:
What's the best way to plan an exit in the next few weeks?
Are Shanghai domestic & international flights still leaving/arriving as scheduled for the next few weeks, and can one still currently fly PEK ----> SHA/PVG?

Originally Posted by narvik (Post 34076631)

I know this thread is entitled "Current China Entry policy", but I have a question on EXIT:
What's the best way to plan an exit in the next few weeks?
Are Shanghai domestic & international flights still leaving/arriving as scheduled for the next few weeks, and can one still currently fly PEK ----> SHA/PVG?

Originally Posted by YariGuy (Post 34076674)

Looking at today's flights it looks like 2/3 of PEK-SHA flights were canceled...

Originally Posted by moondog (Post 34076710)

I realize that your screenshot only covers part of the day, but counting the CA and ZH flights separately inflates the cancellation percentage.

Originally Posted by YariGuy (Post 34076735)

I eyeballed the whole day and made an estimate taking into account of the same flight with different flight numbers.

In any case, lots of flights canceled, but still possible to fly PEK-SHA.

Originally Posted by moondog (Post 34076671)

I have never been concerned about my ability to leave because there is no direct flight rule. There are many options between China and the US. Europe is a little trickier but certainly not impossible.

Originally Posted by narvik (Post 34076872)

I was more concerned about individual cities locking down; i.e. if Beijing locks down, it might not be that easy to leave.

Originally Posted by narvik (Post 34077104)

So, it's starting on March 21st (not 17th, as everyone had predicted):

Flights to Shanghai from abroad to be diverted

More than 100 international flights to Shanghai will be diverted to one of a dozen different domestic airports beginning March 21 to help relieve the city's recent COVID-19 prevention pressure.

The 106 flights to be diverted are on 22 routes operated by five domestic airlines – Air China, China Eastern, Shanghai Airlines, Juneyao and Spring, the Civil Aviation Administration of China ( CAAC) announced on Tuesday.


https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2203153131/

Originally Posted by narvik (Post 34076872)

I was more concerned about individual cities locking down; i.e. if Beijing locks down, it might not be that easy to leave.

Originally Posted by s0ssos (Post 34077153)

Has China locked down an entire first-tier city?

Originally Posted by gudugan (Post 34075229)

Good analysis. Option 1 isn't feasible. The data was just released from late 2020 phase 1 trial of ARCoV (domestic mRNA vaccine) and phase 3 is not released/keeps getting postponed. Basically, it's highly likely that ARCoV doesn't work for Omicron (if it works at all). https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journ...21)00280-9.pdf They can't get enough Moderna/BioNTech even if they wanted to (politics notwithstanding) and distribution will take a long time.

Option 2 is already happening. This is the only tool they can use. Unfortunately the correct thing to do with this strategy is overreact rather than underreact; if you overreact people are unhappy in the short term but it might be successful. If you underreact people are fine in the short term but it runs the risk of the strategy failing completely. Part of the problem is that they keep firing all the local government leads when there is an outbreak, which generally leads to more incompetence over time.

If you read the latest Zhang Wenhong (from 13 March) the TLDR is they do want to move away from Zero Covid but also that they need to control the virus. So basically both sides, or nothing at all. For what it's worth, he does mention that it is becoming less deadly. I don't know if the average person cares or reads these articles.
Full text: ???????_????_???????????????????????????. Relevant part translated below (lol @ daily mail as a source)

Originally Posted by s0ssos (Post 34077153)

Has China locked down an entire first-tier city?

Originally Posted by gudugan (Post 34077203)

Shenzhen ??3?14??20??????????? ?????? ?????? ???????????

Originally Posted by s0ssos (Post 34077153)

Has China locked down an entire first-tier city?