FrancisA

I think you have very neatly summed up the problem, if BA stick to the current prices for semi-flexible fares.

I always travel with checked luggage, no matter how short the flight or my time away. I simply have to, as I need items that cannot be taken as hand luggage. Even if I could travel HBO, I would not want to. I personally do not want to lug around luggage and have to look after its safety at every turn. I much prefer to check it and be done. BA haven't mislaid a bag of mine in this millennium and from recent experiences where the luggage beats me to the carousel, there would be no time saving going HBO.

I really hope BA do not believe that I should book an HBO fare, then decide exactly how much luggage to purchase! At the same time, I also lose my ability to select seats and my additional luggage allowance, which I have used on many occasions in the past.

If this analysis is correct, the alternative of paying a large premium for a semi-flexible fare, whose flexibility I do not want, is just plain madness.

If BA were to remove lounge access on anything less than a semi-flexible fare, then you would have the complete transformation of BA into an LCC on SH.

The problem is of course customer retention: what would be the point of loyalty (what would my gold card get me on a discounted SH flight?).

BA have tried being an LCC (anyone remember GO?) and it failed. Is this going to be another monumental commercial disaster?

r00ty

I think, if (and it really looks like it will) it turns out that the plan is HBO (priced as it is), Semi flex or fully flex. Then I think they're likely to lose my personal and business, business. Not through my choice but by following basic economic sense.

For business travel I've generally used BA for some years now. Earning most of my status that way, often topping up on quiet years by upgrading personal travel. However, in order to book BA, I had to at least prove to the bean counters they were at least competing with the lower priced carriers. Now, at semi flex only or the choice of HBO they've effectively made it unlikely their fare will price in competitively, even remotely competitively. So, for business travel I simply won't be able to book BA unless it's HBO. I don't want that.

For personal travel, I was happy paying slightly more because I had the benefits of a frequent flyer program behind me. With the business travel now going to the lowest bidder for me, it's unlikely I'd maintain status to make personal travel worthwhile. Also unless it's a weekend break we'd almost certainly have luggage (and often using the allowance from status). So, frankly all the advantages of using BA are eradicated for personal travel too.

In short, if the price difference is what I expect. I'll just go lowest bidder for ALL of my travel regardless. For me at least, BA have entirely devalued their FFP.

Now, the cynic in me reckons the following will actually happen.

HBO prices will come DOWN. Baggage (AKA semi flex) will stay the same price as current semi flex. Because more pax will be forced into semi flex, they figure it will subsidize the HBO and thus bring some business over from the let's say "traditional LCCs".

But, it seems we have a couple of weeks to see how this will pan out in reality. From how it looks now, I'm not happy.

Ldnn1

I think you may have misunderstood slightly (but forgive me if you haven't). If you need a competitive fare WITH baggage, the cheapest option now will (probably) be to buy an HBO fare plus baggage separately. I suspect that combined HBO+bag price will be similar to the current non-HBO price, so in terms of justifying it to your employer, you will basically be in a similar position to now.

The difference, as explained by several posters above, is that previously the non-HBO price came with status benefits; now the (similar overall) HBO+bag price will not come with status benefits.

r00ty

Well I did elude to the fact that the benefits are one of the main reasons I choose to spend "slightly more" on personal travel and when it comes in at a very similar price to other carriers choose BA for business too (where choice is possible).

However, the HBO price has two very separate addons to pay to reach the same state deep discount economy provides now.

1: Paid seat choice
2: Paid luggage

That doesn't take into account paid luggage will not apply luggage perks of the FFP.

So, at the moment I do stand by my point. For me, they're essentially devaluing EC membership perks.

The thing is, I can't be alone. Surely most people's business travel rules (for those not allowed club straight off the bat) stipulates book early, and get the cheapest price. Now if you don't need baggage and don't mind what seat you're assigned, HBO is fine. But, surely the fact that for years now FFP benefits have included more checked luggage and free seat choice, they know this is a very valuable benefit. They've effectively been removed unless you're a consistently late booker.

One interesting (subjectively) question though. Maybe it's been asked already. If HBO has all the traits of deep discount buckets, and checked luggage the traits of semi flex. If there's no HBO seats left, but checked luggage, will HBO just not be available. Likewise, what if all semi flex were gone. Would it mean the only choice then was HBO or full flex? It'll make for some interesting looking booking options when searching for a flight I think.

Kgmm77

For who?

As said above, one assumes it has to be revenue positive. Therefore on average it will be more negative than it is positive.

Therefore some people will benefit, but more won't.

Ldnn1

My assumption is that HBO will be all the low buckets up to a certain level, e.g. N. Then semi-flex will be all the next buckets up to the top fully-flex ones (Y, maybe B). Ordinarily you won't have availability in a low bucket but not a mid bucket, so you will either have available:

- HBO, Semi and Full
- Semi and Full
- Full

and should not (except with rare anomalies) see only HBO and Full Flex.

BUT having said that, given that BA has said HBO will continue to be private fares, my assumption about the fare buckets they will use could be completely wrong.

Cymro

Even if it is revenue positive, I think structuring this way encourages those who always book lower priced options to go without the hold baggage. People were kind of doing that anyway but by making sure that there is *no* standard way to get luggage, and no way to get seat selection without paying through the nose,

I'm not *too* worried because most of my short-haul travel is either before or after an ex-EU or on Avios, so I personally won't suffer badly.

Will the HBO fares be upgradeable to CE? If so, that would be another way to mitigate the pain for those who are relatively avios rich (although GCHs will just be booking V-class flights).

As ever, the devil will be in the detail. If BA is more worried about encouraging semi-flex sales, or taking away FFP benefits, then it will have to deal with even more hand baggage on board. (The logical thing to do in that scenario is to remove the free second piece, or to make it for status card holders only, restoring additional value to the programme even by devaluing the overall proposition).

Also, what will happen to BA holidays fares, which currently include seat selection and baggage? Will they lose the benefits or gain a USP?

AlastairM

Does this change imply that an "economy with bag" ticket will be changeable on the day of flight while a "club with bag" ticket isn't? Or can you already change a Club Europe ticket on the day of flight?

HIDDY

People like me.
Yes, people without status do inhabit this forum as well.

Ldnn1

Welcome to the forum, AlastairM. This being my 2000th post, you can see it can become quite addictive - especially during a quiet week at work

There are several different types of CE fare but the reasonably priced ones do not offer same day changes, so you are right that in most cases the 'with checked bag' fares will offer more flexibility - as is already the case with the current semi-flex economy fares.

Some CE fares are fully flexible but they are very expensive. There haven't been any changes announced to the CE fare structure.

vibguy

I think this is an attempt to combine both worlds into one product : the LCC approach with HBO (extra payment for hold baggage and extra for seat selection) and the legacy carrier approach with semi-flex and flex expensive tickets including seat selection. The global idea is to generate more income.

I had a discussion with BA CC yesterday telling me that they now have regularly SH flights with less than 15 pax, something which did never happen in the past. I am not surprised, BA is implementing changes which alienate their frequent flyers. Only those who are forced to fly BA for corporate reasons (mainly LH) and the BA die hards are remaining loyal to BA. The rest of the pax are more or less once in a lifetime customers.

On the other hand, BA announced record profits! Short term looks OK, long term who knows?

simons1

I always thought if BA had stuck to it, GO would have turned out to be a real asset. In fact they gave it away for a ridiculous price, sold for £100m to a VC company who in turn sold it on for £372m only 11 months later.

In fact isn't IAG down that path again with Vueling?

I'm certainly one of those who sees this as another step down that road, clearer differentiation between HBO and more flexible tickets. Free seat reservations are already gone from HBO and it wouldn't surprise me if lounge access went to as part of a cull of lounge numbers.

AlastairM

Thanks for the welcome. Been lurking since planning a long haul redemption last year - lots of useful information here!

Ldnn1

That is an entirely misleading anecdote.

To counter with my own anecdote, all my recent shorthaul flights with BA have been rammed.

More significantly, IAG's official figures released today show European load factor increased 1% to 79.1% in the year to 31 Dec 2015.

EDI_Martin

Unsure if that would happen given the amount spent on lounge refurbs in the regions if both EDI and GLA are anything to go by just to leave the regional lounges only for pax connecting LH or those on semi or full flex tickets.

It could leave these lounges quiet, if thats the aim then they had no need to spend the millions they did.

Maybe there is an element of hope not in my post