PointsPanda

These datapoints are really useful guys thanks, at least I've confirmed i'm not going crazy here seeing that popup come up for cards i'm almost sure i never had in my life, or cards I was only added as a registered user.

Another data point here for myself is that the only card it let me apply for without the popup is the new green card with their clearly pushing (got 35k + $150 away credit).

moe8555

You should see if the popups are gone for the other cards after getting the Green.

IAD_flyer

I have been in popup hell for a while now, most likely due to limited spend. Are there any data points on if canceling all cards and waiting for a few months will get you out of popup hell?

jiaogulan

This is more opinion and not a datapoint, but I could see canceling cards making it harder. And I am not talking about getting a card for the bonus and canceling, which is obviously way worse for this.

sdsearch

Canceling is another thing that get you into popup hell (per the actual wording of the popup)! So I don't understand why you think that canceling would help?

Please explain "limited spend". Do you have a purchase on each card every couple months, or is even more limited than that? The degree to which it's limited may make a difference perhaps. So details are likely to matter.

IAD_flyer

Two to three small transactions per month of about $20 each. My concern is that this high AF card can only be converted to another with a AF, so I want to get kid of it. I guess another option would be to open a no AF AMEX using up a HP and put spend on that.

jags86

There will be very few, if any, helpful data points on this type of activity because we can only assume many activities contribute to the system which approves or denies SUBs. What we do know is that some people who cancel all of their AMEX cards and then wait can find themselves targeted for the 100k/125k Platinum bonus. That doesn’t tell you if you’ll get the pop up, but it does tell you that if you are no longer a customer you get thrown into a different set people for the marketing team. Make of it what you will.

What I would not do is cancel a card you’ve held for under 12 months. Best practice is wait for the annual fee to post, then cancel and request an annual fee refund.

Happy

Rule of Thumb

Do NOT downgrade or cancel an AMEX card before its first 12 months have been up.

You have 30 days from the date of billing to get 100% refund of the AF, unless it is an upgraded card then downgrade to No Fee card (HH for example).

In fact the AMEX reps would almost always remind you the last date you can still cancel the card and get the full refund.

Of course if you wait till the last date to make your decision, you would NEED to pay the AF by the payment due date which is most likely BEFORE the deadline to cancel for full refund, as in day 21/25 to day 30.

Personally I dont see why people have the urge to cancel their cards before 12 months are up, knowing fully this is one of the listed reason to deny you future sign up bonuses, when you can get a reversal of the AF billed after it is posted. Nor I can understand why people want to wait till Day 30th to make up their mind due to retention offers.

Because AMEX bills the AF on the date of statement close, this makes it much easier to handle than Chase bills its fee on the 1st business day of a month - to decide when to cancel your card should you not want to keep it, when no or lack luster retention offer only.

AMEX lays down the rules which are not hard for us to follow.

Equally important is to weed out cards you dont really need / want, even though it may be a card with long history. A card's history stays on the report for 20 years in most cases, fwiw. That should not be a reason to decide whether to keep or to cancel, unless your profile is a very thin one.

IAD_flyer

I have had the card in question for 22 months so I think I am safe.

jmoney7890

Any datapoints for shutdown after getting a NLL referral for a card that was previously had?

sdsearch

I got the popup after canceling a card I'd had for two years. So while you're ssfe from Amex's biggest wrath, it doesn't make you safe from the popup.

If you're planning to cancel when the next AF hit in a few months, I suggest you try again to apply for whatever Amex card you want to apply for before that and see if you get the popup then. If you still get it then, you're likely to get it for quite time after you cancel. If you don't get it then, you're likely to start getting it again if you trying again after canceling.

ahhlun

One Datapoint to provide,

When I refer my wife to an AMEX card, she got the AMEX popup of ", based on your history with credit card balance transfers, American Express welcome offers, introductory APR offers, or the number of Cards you have opened and closed, you are not eligible to receive the welcome offer."
She has NEVER got welcome bonus for the card in question.

But if she applied without the referral link, there is no popup stating she might have her bonus denied.

So maybe AMEX is just trying to deny giving out referral bonus this way...

Captain Greg

curious if P2 got the signup bonus

VegasGambler

I have had two Amex card in my life. I opened a Gold card for the SUB several (5?) years ago. I had no real use for the card so I closed after a year. I also opened an Everyday at that time. I never use it; I just keep it open so my points don't go anywhere.

I just realized that I spend significant money on premium cabin international travel, so I wanted to get the Platinum for the IAP fares. It seems like it could save me a thousand or two per year (last year I bought a BA F fare for $4500 and a JL J fare for $3k. Had I had the card I would probably have saved much more than the AF in just those 2 trips)

Anyway so I went to the web page, and saw a 70k pt offer. Not spectacular but whatever. Unfortunately I got the popup.

Now, if I just can't get the bonus no matter what I'll get the card anyway. Like I said, I think it pays for itself and then some with IAP. Right now most of my spend goes on my CSR and my Hyatt card (also Chase). I'll probably move my travel spend to the Platinum for the 5x MR pts.

But, if I can get the bonus, of course I want to. There are 2 things I could see blocking it.

First is the fact that I put no spend on my Everyday, as mentioned in this thread. Right now I have an offer for $150 statement credit on $750 spend at salvatore ferragamo. I had already added the offer to my card and planned to use it, do I'll definitely do that, which will give me some spend.

The other thing is, I was churning Citi AA cards last year. I opened 6 from about Dec 2018 to Aug 2019. When my first AF was about to be due, I closed all 6 on the same day. This was about 2 weeks ago. There is nothing I can do about that -- it's done.

My question is... have people gotten the pop-up based on churning other (not Amex) cards? In retrospect 6 closures in 1 day probably looks bad.

I don't mind putting another thousand or so in spend on the Everyday (in addition to the Ferragamo offer) to see if that works, but I don't want to chase it if my Citi record is going to stop me from ever getting the bonus -- I'll just take the card without the bonus in that case.

Visconti

And, you've never (within the past 7 or 8 years) ever had or product changed into the Plat Charge? While this may not always work, wait a week or so, then use a browser with cookies cleared with a different IP (use a VPN if you have to) and try again.

Not suggesting this will work, but worth a shot, in my view.