Clearing 4 SWUs on any one flight, regardless of aircraft, is a tall order. Unless there, by some miracle, happens to be confirmable space at booking I'd just book the flight you think offers the best price/schedule right now. And then monitor the paid upgrade prices for a while. AA is so rarely making upgrade space available in advance these days. Also: with 10 months between now and the flight it's highly likely that schedules (and even aircraft) will change, so don't overthink this.

Thanks for your advice. On the recent trip I mentioned above, I called AA to see about upgrading with points and miles (for four BE tickets on a 788/787). They were able to confirm upgrades all four seats on the return flight's long-haul segment right then. (She was surprised though - said that usually didn't happen.) At about T100, I think, the domestic connection to my home hub upgraded. On the outgoing flight, they upgraded me on the long-haul portion, but the remaining 3 didn't upgrade. But I was thankful for the easy return upgrade for four seats on a plane with limited business seats. (The economy seats, even the MCE seats, seem much smaller/crowded than on other planes.)

Flying BOS-CLT last week, and the flight went from J6 at T-100 to J1 at T-24, and as an EXP I wasn't upgraded. At the gate, I was something like #7 or #8 with 28 people on the list. I had an exit row and an empty middle seat next to me, so it was a perfectly fine flight, but holy smokes!

My return CLT-BOS cleared at T-2 days

Curious as to your estimated last 12 month of LPs.

If you book something now, if they don’t have confirmable upgrades at booking, then I would not immediately waitlist the SWU’s. In order to see the In-App upgrade offers, the PNR cannot have waitlisted upgrades. Since you’re 10 months out, I’d wait on waitlisting and monitor the upgrade offers for a while. I have a LAX LHR itinerary in a month and the offers have been all over the board - $700-$4500 and they change on a more than daily basis.

Linking separate reservations, and allowing split
 

Perhaps not exactly the right thread, but it seems to be relevant here. Wife and I have separate PNRs for an upcoming trip. Both EXP, with me having about 50K more 12 month rolling LPs than her. I always thought if AA linked our PNRs, and there was only one seat left for upgrade, we would BOTH be passed over. But today I was told the reservations could be linked, with a specification to allow for a split. This allows her to be placed higher on the upgrade list through my LP count. But if only one seat remains, we would be split, and I would still get the upgrade. I was unaware of this. (And hopefully it is correct information)

I'll definitely wait then. What upgrade offer are you hoping for?

I don’t have a magic number as it’s based on many factors that differ from flight to flight. That said, $500-$600 for a 10.5 hour flight would probably make me jump but I don’t know if that going to happen with my itinerary until it is very close to the departure date. It’s a game of chicken…

The link below is a useful thread in which members share their upgrade offers. It gives you an idea of the marketplace - or not as it is consistently inconsistent. Best of luck.

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/amer...ispreloading=1

Oh one final thought, if and when you ask to be waitlisted for the SWU, I would suggest split the reservation into two PNR’s. As others have said here, the chances of 4 upgrades clearing are slim, but your chances increase with only 2.

Sitting at exactly 50% on upgrades since the beginning of the new LP year. Started the new LP year with just over 203k LP [Executive Platinum].

March flights - 2 for 4 on upgrades; rolling LP estimated between 203k and 250k LPs
PHX-MSY [#3 of 30 for upgrades; 3 cleared at the gate - including myself]
MSY-PHX [#7 of 30 for upgrades; no one upgraded]
PHX-CLT [#3 of 18 for upgrades; 1 cleared and was uniformed pilot]
CLT-PIT [upgraded around T-100hrs; 1 of 17 on upgrade list at gate with #1 being upgraded]

April flights - 3 for 4 on upgrades; rolling LP estimated between [250k - 270k LP]
PIT-CLT [upgraded around T-100hrs]
CLT-PHX [upgraded around T-100hrs]
PHX-SFO [#2 of 16 for upgrades; #1 cleared]
SFO-PHX [upgraded around T-12hrs]

May flights - 0 for 2 on upgrades; rolling LP estimated between [270k-290k LP]
PHX-ORD [#2 of 31 for upgrades; no one cleared]
ORD-PHX [#8 for 31 for upgrades; 4 cleared at the gate including 1 uniformed pilot]

-------------
Edit September 2024:
Not counting flights where I used mileage redemption for first or same-day standby for last minute flights, I am sitting at close to 80% for upgrades as EXP.
23 total flights for 2024 LP year; 1 sameday standby flight, 3 mileage redemptions for 1st [23-4 = 19]
15/19 cleared upgrades = 78.9%

May flights - 0 for 1 on upgrades; 1 mileage redemption 1st
PHX - STL [#2 of 10]
STL - PHX [mileage redemption 1st]

June flights - 1 for 1 on upgrades; 1 sameday standby
PHX - LAS [same day standby]
LAS - PHX [upgraded at EXP window]

July flights - 2 for 3 on upgrades
PHX - DFW [upgraded T-24hrs]
DFW - STL [#3 of 11; 1 upgraded at gate]
STL - PHX [upgraded at gate]

August flights - 2 for 2 on upgrades; 2 mileage redemption 1st
PHX - ORD [upgraded at window]
ORD - PIT [upgraded at window]
PIT - CLT - PHX [mileage redemption 1st]

September flights - 2 for 2 on upgrades
PHX - ORD [upgraded at window]
MCI - PHX [upgraded at gate]

Oh I'm definitely on the very bottom of the EXP tier. No doubt there. I was just surprised there were that many EXPs and CKs on this flight on a Sunday evening.

Hi! I am looking to request a mileage upgrade from SFO-JFK on AA276. This would be on July 27. If I don't get cleared prior to departure, I would not get it as I'm gold and an EP will get it with a comp. Right now, 3/20 seats are sold in business on A321S. What are the chances my upgrade clears before check in?

CLT/MIA 772 upgraded at T-100. Selling upgrades for $291 all the way up to being upgraded. 14 cleared at the gate. This Saturday MIA/CLT 772 cleared at T-100.

Nobody knows. If I were in your shoes, I'd request it and setup an alert in EF.

ORD-LAX, 787-9, #3 on the upgrade list; I and #4 were upgraded as the door was about to be closed (#1 & 2 were upgraded before boarding started).

LP with 350K rolling.

EWR-PHX was 6 of 21 on the list. (2 cleared, I missed the flight)
PHX-ONT was 2 of 19 on the list. since I missed the above flight missed this one as well. but only 1 cleared on this and wouldn't have. (A319) Prior to this I had never not cleared this route but A319 with only 8 seats might make that a * in the book.