There are zero guarantees that they will clear whatsoever unless there is upgradeable C inventory right now (or whenever you applied the SWU).

Quite a while. YMMV but they are two totally separate systems, apparently, so it could be many hours, if they even process at all.

I'm sure you have more than just one.;)

Upgraded at T-26 hours or so, for PHX-PDX leaving 10:50 4/29. Estimated Rolling LPs 330k

Monday, 4/29 CLT-DFW @7:19am: I was #6 with zero seats. ~440k 12-month rolling LPs. Not surprising, several CK's boarded when announced & long Priority 1 line.

This first flight of the day from CLT to DFW on a Monday is always near impossible to get an upgrade.

Upgraded T-10 hours for a mid-afternoon PHL-TPA flight on Friday as a PP. Going back, I was #8 with only 2 seats available (Sunday evening flight). Funny thing is they were still selling F upgrades in the app on Friday for the return flight.

Yesterday:
TPA-DCA #3/20+ with 1 seat left. Pleasantly surprised when FA came back and told #2 and myself to move up.

Today:
DCA-TPA #1/18 with 1 remaining. Until T-2 and that 1 remaining went to 0.

~330k rolling LPs

This has been a week of sadness:

Last Wednesday:
DCA-PHX #2/35 with 1 seat left. Did not clear
PHX-GEG #1/18 with 0 seats left. Did not clear

Last Sunday:
GEG-SEA (AS flight) cleared 4 days in advance
SEA-BWI (AS flight) #3/8 with 0 seats left. Did not clear

Currently at about 250k LPs

I've noticed on trunk routes if there's an open F seat(s) it's going to deadheading pilots. The other day CLT/DFW because of misconnects 3 seats opened up but taken by pilots. Not saying they shouldn't deserve to be up front but less seats for upgrades. Coming back to if you want to be upfront, pay to be upfront.

Platinum Pro and 2 Million Miler. Travelled to Las Vegas last week. Was 10+ on Upgrade Waitlist both ways. Flying in and out of DFW hub, but that factor has never been much of an issue before for me when upgrading. The only other factors which may have booted me down the waitlist is that I was travelling with spouse; also booked Basic Economy, but held Premium Economy seats thanks to my status. As others have noted, AA is a bit cagey with their vague 72 hour automatic upgrade window given what others have commented on here - holding revenue generating seats until the last minute, giving deadheading pilots first class seats, etc.

LAX-ORD today, upgraded at T-20 hours. EXP, approx 250K rolling LP.

Chance of SWUs clearing at connecting hubs & earlier, better?
 

I have a choice of connections for an upcoming international flight (JKF, PHL, MIA, DFW - I think that's it). Is there a higher chance of getting SWUs for four tickets cleared for the long-haul portion if I connect at one above the others?

Also, my flight is about 10 months out. Is it better to book now and waitlist the SWUs for a better chance of getting them? Or is it better to wait in case of flight/itinerary changes this far out?

Thank you in advance for your help!

Look at the plane types (favoring low Y to J ratio). Look at the discount business inventory (e.g., I) as a proxy for availability, if there is currently no upgrade C. All else equal, it would seem that your elite competition will be easiest at the airport where AA is least dominant -- JFK.

Book now and waitlist -- if there are schedule changes after you clear, AA will be able to preserve your upgrade (on AA flights).

Presumably you're flying to LHR? If so, MIA and JFK have a high number of folks who will pay for J. DFW is full of EPs who otherwise will pay or probably be ahead of you on the list unless you're putting down a million or so a year on the cards. PHL will likely be your best bet, but as FlyingEgghead said, the 789s have a worse Y/J ratio than the 77Ws. If you're willing to chance it as the flight is this far out, I'd route through whichever hub has the longest overwater leg for highest enjoyment.

I’d take JFK over PHL. Expecting / hoping 4 SWUs to clear on a 789 is a tall order… unless you are an EXP with extremely high rolling LPs.

Thanks to all of you for your help. I'm traveling to CDG (my apologies - should've said that to begin with). My rolling LP balance is around $300k right now, but I don't know what'll it be when/if C space comes available.

My flight is 10 months out, and prices seem high (to me) right now. Should I wait for prices to come down to book, then see what upgrade prices they offer (without waitlisting SWUs), then try for SWUs if the upgrade price isn't favorable? If yes, can you share what a good upgrade price would be and how long I should wait?

Or should I book now and waitlist SWUs?

Or should I use a different strategy?

I think I'm slowly getting the hang of this, but still need to learn the best strategy for upgrading to business. (I usually have 3 others with me, so it's too expensive to pay for business.) I wasn't so high maintenance in the past, but our recent experience with 788 (787?) MCE seating left me searching for better alternatives.

Thanks, again!