Datapoints:

ORD-SEA 3/20 on Alaska Air (AS) - cleared as Emerald at T-24, was #4 on waitlist.
SEA-ORD 3/24 on Alaska Air (AS) - cleared as Emerald at T-100, F was pretty available.

Meanwhile, AA routes this year continue to mostly be a bust.

ORD-MIA 3/26 on AA - Sitting at T-27 with J7 C7 and no upgrades yet. Flight has been J7 C6 since T-100 :rolleyes:
--> update: cleared at T-25, just in time to pick a meal. App offer never went below $291 which is probably why seats remained available (usual low is $146 on this route). Finally an upgrade this year. J is still at 4. I'm around 300k LPs.

I remember 14-15 years ago when I was PLT, if i would use stickers to waitlist for upgrades, I'd almost always get it, as every elite on the flight wasn't competing with me for complimentary upgrades. It seems we're seeing ~$140-$280 upgrade offers being offered to everyone on 2-3 hour flights that would have cost 2-3 stickers $40 stickers back in the day. At this point, I wish they'd reinstate the sticker model, so upgrades would return to being restricted to elites, and consider pricing them based on status, so GLD's would pay more for stickers, and EXP the least. This keeps some value for our loyalty and allows AA to monetize upgrades.

What are the chances of miles/copay upgrade clearing these days for TPAC flight?
The award business tix are rare sights these days, sigh.

Yesterday morning as a Gold (for a few more days), 23K LP:

ONT-PHX A321, 12th of 14 for 0 seats.
PHX-DSM E175, 7th of 8 for 3 seats. I saw the 3 people get upgraded at the gate - they were a few spots ahead of me in line.

Yesterday as Gold (for one more day), 23K LP:

CID-PHX, A319, 6th of 8 for 0 seats
PHX-SNA, A321, 12th of 14 for 3 seats

CLT to TLH on 3/19 CRJ900 - cleared immediately after changing to late flight the night before the flight. I had a connection from FLO - ERJ145's only for that 19 minute flight. Feels almost wrong taking that short of a flight, but this time the alternative was wife drives 2 hours each way to CLT, so seems the right call. Options were either leave super early or get in super late, changed my mind at about 1:00 am realizing I'd have to get to airport in only 4 or 5 hours and hadn't slept at all yet.

TLH to CLT 4/3 CRJ900 - somehow just cleared at T-73.5 as a plat-pro? Guess I'll take the extra 90 minutes notice. 2A or 1D (nobody in 1C yet). Decisions, decisions.

Today Tpa-dfw I was 5 out of 36 for 1 seat and for dfw-hou I was 4 out 18 for 1 seat (E-170).

EXP, 300K LP.

Reverse of this Monday evening, EXP (barely hit 200k last year). Cleared both at T-100.
DSM-PHX 737 - Empty list at boarding with 5 available. Had an empty seat next to me in F!
PHX-ONT A321 - Empty list at boarding with 4 available. Not empty next to me, but a few in the cabin.

DP 4/2 (76K PPro):
JFK-SFO AA177 - cleared T-12 (even though seat map showed J to be full and no in-app upgrades to J were available)
wait list had like 3 people at checkin, departed with 1 empty seat in J

My wife & I both got upgraded, before the 24 hour mark on both the HND-DFW (SWUs) and the DFW-CLT (also using the SWUs) flights.

I received the C class available alert email from Expert Flyer for 1 C class seat. The EXP line had a 45 -60 minute wait, so I DM'd the AA Twitter team and within 10 minutes they processed both the international and domestic upgrades for my seats. A couple hours later I received another EF email alert that more C class seats were released. I call the EXP line and they guy I spoke with was useless, so I DM'd the Twitter team again and within 10 minutes they had my wife upgrades processed. And the icing on the cake, we we able to sit next to each other on both flights.

DFW-ICN & back
 

Same question, any recent upgrade using SWU from DFW to ICN (Seoul)?

One data point. I have been upgraded on 8 of 10 DFW <-> HND flights in the past 10 months and my wife has been upgraded on 3 of 4 on those same flights.

JFK-CDG: upgrade to J using SWU cleared 3 days before flight.

Yesterday, a waitlisted SWU clear 22 days before my DFW-HND flight. The has been the furthest out a SWU has cleared in quite a while.

Today cleared Tpa-Clt 4 days ago.
today Clt-ord 2 out of 39 for 0 seats.