ChurnieEls

I know for me EQMs won't be the problem, EQDs will be - I'd just about squeak into Gold with my current plans + completed travel.

Fares are just damn cheap and even then I just wouldn't do the $4.5k (more like $6k when include taxes etc) on my own leisure travel to keep Platinum. My business travel with work is going to be severely curtailed going forward too.

If they don't extend, its been a good run - cleared a lot of upgrades (inc. some with the OH), made really good use of the MCE benefits, additional baggage & International lounge access. Also got to experience ORD/DCA, NYC/ORD & DFW/DCA full meal services. Looking like the ~3 years leading up to the pandemic were a bit of a golden age re status'd travel/upgrades/F product.

Back to repackaging a poor mans F on NK for me

IADCAflyer

30,000 EQMs so far this year and $1200 in spend. Thank jeebus for the EQD waiver in 2021...

DMPHL

If it is going to be a decision on reduced thresholds, it can't be that much later in the year. It does them no good, especially in an era where cash is king, to announce reduced thresholds in October or November, when travelers whom you might have incentivized to keep their spend with AA might instead have booked with a competitor (trying a status match, or becoming a free agent, etc.). I don't mean mileage runs, just travel with some normal amount of advance planning. Time is part of the cost-benefit analysis, as well.

fdog

Hmm. This may be true depending on routing. However, over the last month and a half, my UG rate has been (amazingly) 100% over ~ 12,000 domestic miles. I haven't had it this good since the days of NorthWest.

Just a data point. Lots of segments out of PHX and LAX.

All the best, James

enviroian

This is why.

bryanb

I agree, especially as people are weighing their options for summer travel at this very moment. Once I start booking with a competitor, it will be too late for me to line up my flights in a row. If I end up earning status with a competitor, that airline will also get my business travel in 2022.

BarrenLucidity

Another reason for AA to extend status or give some bonus to EQM/EQD.
​​​Not to mention Asia, Europe, and South America are all taking another turn even if select countries are welcoming vaccinated tourists. Business travel won't even restart until the fall. I'm at a Fortune 50 and hearing similar statements from colleagues across all businesses of varying sizes.

Kacee

Exactly my experience. What's happened is AA has raised F fares back to absurd levels on my routes. So while F, priced barely above Y, was selling out earlier in the pandemic, now it's hardly selling at all.* I'm clearing everything at T-100, and on ridiculously low Y fares (which have not increased).

*(There are certainly exceptions, such as PHX-OGG on the 772, which is nearly sold out two months in advance.)

redtop43

Since I fly pretty much only one route, I have my finger on the pulse of those fares, particularly F. For PHL-LAS, pre-COVID the basic F fare was $610. When I started booking again in early March, it was around $375. A couple of weeks later it was up to $400-$525, depending on routing, and now it appears to be around $550ish. There are of course some flights/days/times/routings that are higher, but naturally I avoid these. I'm EXP but I have no real idea how much they'd have to go up for me to play the Upgrade Lottery as opposed to buying F.

GunsOfNavarone

All I know is EXPs are flying more in bulk right now.

One of my non-hub to hub flights upcoming this week went from J7 to J3 exactly at the 100 hour window, the same time I received a upgrade notification email. Means at least three EXPs on this flight (I know could be companions). I am seeing EXP tags on carry on bags regularly now.

EXPs are flying..... maybe not all or not OCONUS, but they are being seen in quantities not seen earlier this year.

radonc1

My only question is.."How are Explats going to make the EQD spend doing $600 domestic RT's (even in F) ?

Even if I assume that they make it $1000 EQD/trip, we are still talking 12 trips. And that is for this year. What happens next year?

enviroian

The problem for a DFW flyer like me is most flights a day, week or two weeks out are already J0. I haven't seen J3 let alone J7 in a LONG time.

747-800i

I am departing on a trip this week that will get me to 60k EQM. I think i'll probably sit tight there and see if they drop the EXP req from 80 to 60, if not, I'll take revenue flights in the fall to finish up the last 20. Easier to burn some miles and stay more flexible with travel after hitting 60k.

GunsOfNavarone

Can't answer that for others. A FT member posted on this forum that he made EXP last week. I will make EXP next week. CONUS road warriors are now flying. I am seeing them on the planes. I have made EXP for ten years primarily through CONUS flying. Not a fun lifestyle.

GunsOfNavarone

Observations is it depends where you are heading to. TPA, MIA, CLT, PHX, SLC, LAX, IAH- not easy for a upgrade. Mid market business and government centers- pretty easy most days.

From DFW- TPA seems to be my rarest upgrade. CAE my easiest.