747-800i

Like in '20? I am as of now going to hit the 80k for EXP, I hit 100k+ and the EQD in 2020 also. I hope I am not spinning my wheels and after I requal we'll all be extended without traveling.

FlyerBeek

Of course there's the potential they extend status again. Or - more likely in my mind - lower the thresholds again for 2021 requalification and/or add some elite qualification promotions later in the year. But, I also don't think they're willing to announce anything so early in 2021 that might disincentivize current elites from spending more money on AA right now.

-FlyerBeek

dvs7310

There are a number of airlines that have already done another extension. None of the US carriers of course, I'm sure they'll wait and gauge the situation a little later, but as time goes on and international travel is widely not open, there is going to have to be something. I get it that some people actually do qualify annually mostly on domestic flights, but many do not and there will be a huge decrease in the ranks if it's either not a full extension again or a serious EQM/EQD promo in Q4.

I don't see myself being able to travel internationally before sometime in Q3 at best. Though my situation is unique in that I'm based in Japan, borders are closed and travel intentionally made difficult by the govt... still for the majority of members in the US, there aren't a lot of long haul international destinations open to you yet either for non-essential travelers. There very little cost to AA to extend again, especially if without SWUs, but a ton of goodwill to stick with Aadvantage when we can fly somewhat normally again.I can see lots of people doing status matches all around if none of the 3 do anything. I'm perfectly happy to get back on long haul planes again as soon as it's possible without crippling restrictions on the return. Until then I'm stuck with only domestic flights, which here aren't very far, even to Okinawa.

SFO_FT

I believe they will extend status once again. A substantial, and profitable, share of top tier elites earn their status partially or fully through international travel, including to/from the Asia-Pacific. With countries such as Australia, NZ, China, etc indicating their borders might not reopen during 2021, it will be really difficult for AAdvantage loyal customers to achieve the most status levels. AA is unlikely to allow customers they already have established a relationship with to become free agents. Given there’s almost no AA cost to extending the status given current global travel conditions—ones completely out of the control of their internationally focused customers—AA will surely do this as it positions loyalty for 2022 travel. The opportunity cost of losing a loyal customer is pretty high. Remember also that some AAdvantage elites earn their status flying CX, QF, and JL. AA earns $ (sale of mikes) when an AAdvantage customer buys a ticket on one of those carriers. Drop a former EXP and that customer might also stop buying on CX, QF, and JL, so those carriers also lose out with reduced AAdv elite ranks. I’d be shocked if AA doesn’t extend status.

I see AA and the other carriers in the fall announcing extensions to 2022 as well as incentives to rise levels (bonus elite point promos) and bonus award miles to incent travel for the extended elites.

fotographer

I hope they do.. as my status is always made on international trips .. but then again.. at this point.. I am of the opinion, if they do great.. if they dont.. well nothing I can do about it anyway

Often1

I doubt that the US legacies deal with this before September when the summer is under their belt and Q4 is more predictable. The question remains as to whether FFP's will incentivize HVC travel in the future or will business cutbacks look to fare only?

No way to predict that now or anytime soon.

USFlyerUS

A good number of VFFs are in sales and consulting. The problem we're having (I'm in consulting) is, even though we can travel now with a business justification and SVP approval, our clients are still working from home and conferences are still primarily virtual, making travel unnecessary. Until that changes, business travel will continue to be depressed in many industries. We want to get back in front of clients as the virtual calls are workable but definitely not the same.

I agree the US carriers will likely wait until further into 2021 to decide what to do, if anything, regarding status extensions.

tomj888

I'm hoping that they give it one more year. A wise way to do it would be to look at when countries open up their borders. Frankly until countries feel it is safe for travel, then they will open their borders. No matter how much I want to fly its out of my hands. Forward thinking airlines ( are you one AA?) will recognize that an adjust accordingly.

For now, we have two TATL trips planned. Each of those is worth about 25K in EQM so I should be able to make EXPLAT. Only thing that will stop that is borders closing in Q3,Q4

ramcm7

Obviously, AA wants high-revenue butts in seats. If business travel, particularly int'l, doesn't rebound, how would FTers view a soft landing? If you don't hit the (reduced) target of your previous level, you only drop one level. Is that enough to keep you from becoming a free agent?

GunsOfNavarone

All I can say is every seat is full on most every AA (domestic) flight. Upgrading has never been tougher. I am almost always #1 on the upgrade list, yet domestic first is typically at or near capacity prior to the 100 hour EXP upgrade window.

Not sure how much Chairman Parker values EXP in today's environment. He is filling every seat, with people very willing to pay for discounted first, Over the past month I have seen credit card applications being desired by PAX in domestic first, Something somewhat rare prior to COVID.

No question Chairman Parker will embrace CKs forever. EXPs keep em but the other fish are paying for discounted first, opening new credit card accounts, and those in main cabin are paying for seats and bags.......... Something EXPs are not.... and I am a ten year EXP but understand I and many EXPs are far from Chairman Parker's most profitable customers in today's climate.... and maybe not in tomorrows climate either. Never foget Chairman Parker is the guy who proposed selling water to PAX..... As long as Chairman Parker keeps the politicians and the FAA happy (UALs business model for decades), down deep he does not care about EXPs IMHO....

aztimm

How many aircraft are still parked?

During 'normal' times, there were about 5x daily AUS-PHX flights. Right now it is about 2-3/day. How many other routes have been cut?
While it is fantastic that AA (and other airlines) are fully utilizing some aircraft, I'd be surprised if they have 100% of their total aircraft utilized.


Many companies, mine included, have continued to halt any business travel. Well we'd need permission from the CEO or one of his direct reports to travel. I don't see business travel returning to normal levels until possibly 4Q 2021 (more likely 1Q 2022).


That said, to the OP's point, I would say there is certainly a possibility that AA will do something. Will it be enough to my liking? Probably not. Will they be first? Probably not.
I predict they will wait until 10/1, unless UA or DL does something major first.

Stripe

Was already discussed toward the end of this thread.

AA will do nothing until either DL and UA do something, or until they see where folks are closer of the end of the year. Even with reduced requirements it's just difficult for most to accumulate the miles and EQDs even if they want to, especially given how few overseas flights are available. However, unless the virus has another big resurgence I would guess AA will go with those who qualified by flying and offer buy-ups to others. Otherwise they anger those who flew and qualified for real.

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

I think FFs need to get used to the idea that upgrades are going to take a serious second back seat to aggressive monetizing of domestic F. And domestic F will be what you see now-complimentary beverages and on flights longer 900 miles a cold snack (those few routes still maintaining a hot meal).

As far as extension of elite status again for next year. If DL and UA does it then AA will. Otherwise, I doubt it but AA may very well keep the lower threshold levels in place next year.

USFlyerUS

Honestly, even though I'm EP, I still buy-up on almost all flights over 2.5 hours. It's simply not worth playing upgrade roulette at this point given the F cabin is now priced in a way that makes sense to just buy F if you want it.

CodeAdam10

I can't see them doing another full-year extension, but I'll gladly be wrong on this. What is more likely is a a partial extension (6-months) but they will likely wait 'til late 2021 to announce it, unless UAL/DAL decides to get the ball rolling and then everyone else will follow suit. By the time I begin to travel in any substainial way, I will be at the end of most of my airline statuses and will likely have to start from scratch. It is a somber feeling, but it is what it is ... just material things at the end of day.