onanisland

I’m technically a leisure traveler. With a home in another place. My husband doesn’t really fit anywhere but first or exit. Bulkhead, he was squished last time. We do like our adult beverages. But no call buttons.

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

My biggest concern is that if business travel takes a big hit permanently because of video, and don't get yourself I see time after time where senior management sees this as the future with a "you consultant will make it work" mentality, the US3 start to see the typical Spirit customer as their "bread and butter." Which will mean Spirit like service level, closing of ACs in non hub airports, less upgrade opportunities, etc. And domestic F will become much more like the "Big Front Seat."

747-800i

For me 100%. If they don't drop the bar from 80k to 60k, i'll fly more revenue in Nov/Dec until I hit 80k, but I'd much rather not spend another $ on flights this year, burn some miles for the rest of my '21 trips and go back to paid AA/OW flights in '22, ideally with the full world of destinations open to us again.

SFO_FT

As AA is signaling to its “unable to retain even if we wanted due to Int’l travel restrictions” elites that we’re going to be dropped from the elite ranks, I’m in an exit mode from the AA ecosystem. Burning off miles rather than buying tickets so as to zero out my account by YE. Cancelling AA credit cards. So for me, November will likely be too late. So as to engage in an effective exit strategy, I need to know now whether I’ll be with AA in 2022 as my earning carrier or with a status-matched other carriers (or even free agency). During 2021. I’d rather be buying tickets and earning award miles rather than burning them off. But if in 2022 and beyond I’m not going to playing the AA FFP game, then I need to start extracting myself now.

This whole thread, of course, is armchair FFP executive assessments. What would you, as the manager of AAdv, be doing to gain and retain engagement in AAdv?

Adelphos

Keep in mind that there are Delta and UA elites who are saying they are doing the exact same thing as you are, and some of them say they are going to AA

I think it is likely airlines will something for international travel oriented elites, but with travel increasing every week, they need to see how things evolve

meechyathere

1) Remember last year: DL and UA extended within a day of each other (indeed UA probably had a draft sitting in Outlook!), and AA followed a week later, with arguably ever so slightly more bonuses. My guess is a similar pattern will transpire this year.

2) We have certainly established that Big Three will copy each other. For obvious reasons there will not be one carrier who does not extend/accelerate requal, while the others do.

I confess to being one of the FTers that has recently announced intention to switch to another carrier - This is not due to their failure thus far to extend, I'm sure they will do something. It is due to near-constant service failures, the rate of which has increased to an even higher level during the pandemic. Lounge denials, uncompensated at-fault strangings, shena, the inability of CR to resolve anything, lost luggage, to name a few. All of which I've railed about extensively in other threads here.

It's not even that I think the grass to be wholly greener on the other side: I know the others have issues too, and no airline is at their finest right now. But things that run like a well-oiled machine at DL, UA, B6 etc, AA still can't seem to manage. I am not loyal to AA for their expert baggage handling and superlative domestic cabin service - my allegiance to them is almost entirely due to the benefits/availability/flexibility on longest-haul routes and intl partners. And maybe their transcon services, which are gutted right now.

Since I'm not currently utilizing AA's strongest area, and their domestic/transcon/Hawaii is borderline dysfunctional in the current times, it might be the best strategy for me to, while I'm flying not a lot and primarily domestically, match to a carrier that has stronger domestic performance for the time being, and go back to AA once intl travel returns full tilt.

imho Nobody would launch a new big intl route (India), without bringing their FF base along with. I actually read about that route right after penning my latest nastygram to AA threatening to status match and be done with AAdvantage. Definitely an incentive to stay on board with AA if things are extended.

AAaaaaand sorry to keep using my own self as a use case, but I actually think my profile fits this pretty well. The last issue is that, as a 2019er first time EXP, I have essentially not been able to see AA/EXP at anything like its finest. I actually had two really good trips in early 2020 (plus one train wreck) before covid hit, but have basically not experienced most of the benefits advertised pre-covid. From a marketing standpoint, it would probably make sense to give the freshie 2019ers an opportunity to really experience AAdvantage, rather than leaving them PO'd and looking for some greener grass for 2022.

enviroian

You sure about that?

SFO_FT

Agree. The FFP executives are in a pickle as they want to incent the pax that can travel while not losing the ones that can’t. The high-yield Intl pax present an even more difficult challenge as, unlike in the US where only 3-4 viable carriers serve as competitors, the typical international markets have heaps of foreign-based ones, most with much better levels of service. So, free agency becomes a very viable alternative. And once a freq traveling executive leaves elite level status and/or a FFP ecosystem, it’s really hard to get them back. If a pax is a fee agent and not pursuing an elite tier with any one program, it’s hard to status match them (back) into a program.

The most odd thing AA hasn’t done is extend the Jul21 expiring SWUs through the end of the year. By adopting that “use or lose it” attitude now is pushing me to employ an exit strategy. But of course, we each have our own cost-benefit trade offs on FFPs. What matters only is what FFP executives think is best in their short and long term objectives. AA is signaling that it’s OK to lose those of us who can’t fly. That’s a really odd thing for a marketing executive to do. Gaining and retaining to the AAdv program are usually their goals, with I assume, YE bonus targets a component of their compensation.

SFO_FT

The lack of extension is even more odd when one considers that the item that does cost AA a small amount of money (eVIPs) aren’t provided under their status extension. So, pax that are flying to earn PPro or EXP in 2021 are still motivated to do so. On the matter of comp 500 mile UPGs: with the proliferation of pax buying dom F, the ability to receive comp UPGs continues to decline. (In a 2019 investor presentation, DL noted that it expects its dom F cabins to be only 20% free upgrades going forward.). So, the value of comp UPGs deceases to AA elites and, as result, actually increases AA yields as even more of these PP and EXPs will choose to purchase dom F or LFBUs. Therefore, limiting the ability to receive free upgrades by means of appropriately sized elite ranks increases AA yields. As such, reducing PP/EXP ranks also reduces dom yields given the new environment of cheap dom F fares.

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

To me other operations the differences between the US3 isn't all that much. I will say that AA handled COVID much better than DL that was interested more in PR stunts. Really, no ice. How pathetic. Yes lukewarm beer or white wine 100% of the time versus 10% of having a FA tell me to go pound sand if a want a beverage in F. I'll go with option number 2.

dc10forlife

I've got a different take on this.

Extending status is a way to lure your clientele back on the basis that they are not travelling this year but will be next year. Doing this really only makes sense if AA (and other carriers) believe that flying will return to the way it was before Covid. Myself and quite a few others do not think that will be the case, so why extend benefits to those who may not be travelling with you in the future?

For those who are still travelling or who are resuming travelling, the reduced qualification levels for this year will help those retain their status for next year. That should be enough.

thunderdeacon

If there is a complete change in the type of person that is flying, it makes sense to eventually reward the person who is actually putting their butt in a seat in exchange for paying a fare as opposed to continuing to reward people who are not providing any revenue for the business.

hhdl

I doubt we see a published blanket extension, but I'm virtually certain we'll see every program run something like

1. Take every itinerary flown by elites in the last year they qualified normally (2019 for most, but 2020 for those who made EXP before COVID)
2. For each itinerary take the pair with the biggest decline in flying from 2019-2021 (e.g. for XXX-DFW-LHR-YYY, pairs would be XXX-YYY, XXX-LHR, XXX-DFW, DFW-LHR, DFW-YYY, LHR-YYY)
3. Take the elite credit earned from each itinerary and multiply by the percentage decline in the pair selected in 2
4. Sum that elite credit
5. Either credit that sum to every elite from 2019 or pre-COVID 2020, use it as the reward for a status challenge of sorts, or as a customized "buy elite credit for $100” type offer
That sort of general approach targets those who most relied on international flying for status (for those it's likely as good as an extension, unless they qualified with little margin) and keeps the elites whom they'd need to bring back to rebuild the network. It's also comparatively quiet and the criteria don't have to be published.

Zacnlinc

Sounds complicated and involved.... Maybe they will do something like the Marriott recently did. Based on the status one achieved in 2020, you were awarded 50% of the nights as a boost for 2021 status. As much as I'd like to outright have EXP extended for 2022 (have a trip with the family planned for Feb 2022, I'm not banking on anything at the moment other than marching forward here in 2021 when possible.

Think it was 2017 that I made EXP just on Domestic flights! Hell!! Bring it Back!! LOL

Adelphos

Agreed. Assuming things go as expected, more people will be in the office by Labor Day, and “real” business travel can restart (though a lot of business travel will restart earlier). If you as a corporation don’t resume business travel by Labor Day while others are, what exactly are you waiting for? Maybe travel isn’t that much of a priority for you anymore. There will be another leg up maybe in 2022, but at the end of the day, those that keep delaying the return to travel when other companies/industries are will be viewed skeptically in terms of loyalty and corporate contracts