enviroian

Agreed and this is more or less what I was trying to say.

ksweeney

I suspect as passenger volumes increase, especially if more business travelers come back, the price for domestic F will rise significantly. That will reduce the percent of leisure travelers in cheap F cabin seats. A significant increase in per seat F revenues may actually result in a rebalance of revenue versus upgrades back closer to where they were a couple of years ago.

IADCAflyer

I wouldn't use MZJ as a metric. That is were CRJs and ERJs go to retire / die. AA is replacing the 50 seaters with 65 - 75 seaters on basically a one-for-one basis.

IADCAflyer

Business travel is returning but it will take years (if ever) to fully recover. Zoom/WebEx has likely killed off done damage for the need for constant on-site client/customer baby sitting. But as others have said, there is nothing like a client/customer dinner to seal the deal. Ive been doing trips all winter long - but for two clients who have gotten themselves into very hot water.

My LAX and DFW flights have been as a whole about 80 to 90 percent full. Just 45 days ago, they were in the 60 - 70 percent range (reminiscent of how we flew in the early to late 1990s when 70 percent load factors were the norm).

enviroian

I'll respectfully disagree. I'd say reduced, not killed.

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

Business travel relating to sales and physical facilities will recover. But travel relating to soft activities like consulting the CFOs/CEOs are already blathering on and on about MS Teams/Zoom as "the way." I can assure you they don't give a flying fig about the "experience." They only look at the bottom line. Also lots of travel is client paid for and after 40 years in the business world I never, ever, never, ever, ever underestimate the ability of the C level to spend a dime to save a nickel.

IADCAflyer

I probably should have said severely wounded.

IADCAflyer

From a legal world stand point, arguing for client travel on fixed-fee engagements is going to be tough. Two days of travel at $500 an hour plus the airfare plus a night of hotels plus three meals is going to get a hard hard look over before it can be justified.

355F1

I cleared PHX-OGG today!

empty seat next to me in F, too!

Often1

AA will adjust capacity to demand, not return capacity to "normal" and then discount to fill seats. Same thing as it did after the last economic crisis (although that was not a pandemic issue).

Yes, business travel will take a hit. But, high end leisure travel will increase; especially for the next 12-24 months. The pre-pandemic notion that leisure travelers were fine with a middle seat in steerage on a BE ticket is likely not the case. At the same time, there is a lot of necessary business travel which has been put off. So the Air Zoom revolution may take a bit of pause.

The person sitting paid F may have paid for that on their own so they can have a good time.

Whichever way the pendulum swings, the notion of cheap F is not in the cards. Cheap includes unpaid.

enviroian

Yep cheap F seats abound. I’ve been back at business travel full swing for the last month every week. Not one upgrade has cleared. Not a one. Lol Of course being in hub captive DFW doesn’t help.

ksweeney

The trajectory on bookings should, based on supply and demand, result in the current cheap first class fares to disappear soon. As first class fares rise there will be a balance between revenue and upgraded coach fares may shift slightly in the direction where upgrades were pre-pandemic.

Often1

I see that happening only where RM/IM misread the market. That is bound to happen and there will always be the occasional oddity,. But, these situations will adjust quickly. Cash is king post-pandemic and simply wiping a liability of its books is only part of what AA needs.

In any event, I don't see AA making a decision on status until much later in the year. Particularly when the middle ground is not a status extension, but perhaps reduced thresholds. Last thing AA wants to do is let customers off the hook. Better to do this later in the year when it can see what the cost-benefit is.

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

Other than trancons few business travelers are getting paid domestic F. The upgrades tend to go to high spend EXPs and CKs albeit a portion of those CKs are booking in the back of the bus. But I can certainly see AA (and other airlines) desperate for cash still monetizing the F cabin. High spend EXP business traveler is still going to fly unless he/she take a job with no or little travel.

bryanb

I’m now trying to decide whether to go for status this year or just be a free agent and redeem miles for AA trips.

If I keep loyal to AA, it feels reasonable to buy up to F on several flights I’m planning, which would earn a nice bonus on EQMs. But there’s also award availability which is tempting to save the cash and burn up my miles balance. My original hope was to get status this year so I can make 2022 my biggest leisure travel year yet.