Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
Then, by
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
- Booking class
- Time of request
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)
#346
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,453
If the flight remains J1, then based on my experience I would not count on C ever being published, with the last seat going to upgrades at the gate. If J2, however, it's not uncommon to see C1 published sometime inside of T-48h, but for a route like JFK-LAX, I'd say the chances of that happening are lower than on other routes.
#347
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Washington DC
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 66
PP with around 10k.
DCA-JFK on 3/15 at 6pm...#2 on the list and pushed to #3 right before boarding, top two spots cleared (and I usually do on this flight).
LGA-DCA-MIA on 3/18 at 1pm...cleared both legs at 72hrs.
MIA-CLT-DCA-LGA on 3/20 at 11am...#3 from MIA and #8 of 29 from CLT. Cleared to LGA at 72 hours.
DCA-JFK on 3/15 at 6pm...#2 on the list and pushed to #3 right before boarding, top two spots cleared (and I usually do on this flight).
LGA-DCA-MIA on 3/18 at 1pm...cleared both legs at 72hrs.
MIA-CLT-DCA-LGA on 3/20 at 11am...#3 from MIA and #8 of 29 from CLT. Cleared to LGA at 72 hours.
#348
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Live: IWI; Work: DCA/Everywhere; Play: LAS/SJU/MLE
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Ambassador/LTP, Nat'l Exec Elite, LEYE Gold
Posts: 6,670
Puzzled a bit.
I made the effort to make PPro this year mainly for upgrades on my monthly LAS-PHL redeye (usually Friday but occasionally Thursday). I cleared in both January and February, and both times there were still F seats available after my upgrade. Usual equipment is A321 and the usual flight number is 589.
I booked for this week in January, flight number was 1876 and seat was 5D, showing "Food available for purchase" so obviously the seat map contemplated 4 rows of F. However, the equipment now shows 763. Seems there's a flight from San Juan to Philly, which becomes a nonstop to Vegas, and turns around to go back to Philly.
But oddly, with 28 F seats the 763, there are only 2 remaining. I haven't been upgraded (it's now T-49) and I don't expect to be.
Right now the price is $597 for Y and $720 for F. Yes, with this small a price difference, paying extra for the lie-flats is a no-brainer. But how many people waited this long to book, and how many would even bother to look and see that F means J-lie flat.
Maybe I'm just venting, but I'm not sure why in the analogous situation 3 weeks ago (my last eastbound trip) at this point there were 9 F seats filled, and this time there are 26.
I made the effort to make PPro this year mainly for upgrades on my monthly LAS-PHL redeye (usually Friday but occasionally Thursday). I cleared in both January and February, and both times there were still F seats available after my upgrade. Usual equipment is A321 and the usual flight number is 589.
I booked for this week in January, flight number was 1876 and seat was 5D, showing "Food available for purchase" so obviously the seat map contemplated 4 rows of F. However, the equipment now shows 763. Seems there's a flight from San Juan to Philly, which becomes a nonstop to Vegas, and turns around to go back to Philly.
But oddly, with 28 F seats the 763, there are only 2 remaining. I haven't been upgraded (it's now T-49) and I don't expect to be.
Right now the price is $597 for Y and $720 for F. Yes, with this small a price difference, paying extra for the lie-flats is a no-brainer. But how many people waited this long to book, and how many would even bother to look and see that F means J-lie flat.
Maybe I'm just venting, but I'm not sure why in the analogous situation 3 weeks ago (my last eastbound trip) at this point there were 9 F seats filled, and this time there are 26.
My guess would be that both the equipment swap and the cabin occupancy are MAX-related on top of likely spring conferences and school/college sports meets.
I think LAS was indirectly affected a fair bit by planes being reallocated around the system to fix the MAX problem, along with corresponding schedule changes.
#349
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: DC
Programs: AA PPRO, HH Diamond, National EE
Posts: 603
PP with around 10k.
DCA-JFK on 3/15 at 6pm...#2 on the list and pushed to #3 right before boarding, top two spots cleared (and I usually do on this flight).
LGA-DCA-MIA on 3/18 at 1pm...cleared both legs at 72hrs.
MIA-CLT-DCA-LGA on 3/20 at 11am...#3 from MIA and #8 of 29 from CLT. Cleared to LGA at 72 hours.
DCA-JFK on 3/15 at 6pm...#2 on the list and pushed to #3 right before boarding, top two spots cleared (and I usually do on this flight).
LGA-DCA-MIA on 3/18 at 1pm...cleared both legs at 72hrs.
MIA-CLT-DCA-LGA on 3/20 at 11am...#3 from MIA and #8 of 29 from CLT. Cleared to LGA at 72 hours.
#352
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 30,014
DFW gate agent trying to make sure the door closes 5 minutes early, perhaps? Or simply too lazy to come down the jetway to upgrade #3 ?
#353
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 30,014
Looks like we were both wrong.
Twitter reply:
“If there's space for an upgrade we should be processing it. We looked into it and 4C is out of service.”
Twitter reply:
“If there's space for an upgrade we should be processing it. We looked into it and 4C is out of service.”
#355
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bellevue, WA - AA EXP 3MM
Posts: 2,756
Thinking about an overnight SFO-JFK, buying coach and very much wanting to upgrade to business class for sleep. This would be on a Thursday night, so peak day for consultants flying back. A few weeks out, flight is F7 A3 J7 D0 I0. Seatmap shows 10/10 available in F and 23/30 available in J, which sounds like great news. But J7 D0 means RM thinks they can sell these seats at full price. At least it's SFO-JFK, rather than LAX-JFK, as AA seems to clear more upgrades on the former. Still, last-minute business travel. Guidance and experience welcomed.
AA EXP, EQD rolling 12-month about $15k
AA EXP, EQD rolling 12-month about $15k
Last edited by bedelman; Mar 21, 2019 at 6:12 pm
#356
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: New York
Programs: EK Platinum, AA EXP, Marriott Platinum, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,148
deleted
Last edited by S.R; Mar 21, 2019 at 7:57 pm
#357
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Thinking about an overnight SFO-JFK, buying coach and very much wanting to upgrade to business class for sleep. This would be on a Thursday night, so peak day for consultants flying back. A few weeks out, flight is F7 A3 J7 D0 I0. Seatmap shows 10/10 available in F and 23/30 available in J, which sounds like great news. But J7 D0 means RM thinks they can sell these seats at full price. At least it's SFO-JFK, rather than LAX-JFK, as AA seems to clear more upgrades on the former. Still, last-minute business travel. Guidance and experience welcomed.
AA EXP, EQD rolling 12-month about $15k
AA EXP, EQD rolling 12-month about $15k
#358
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
On the other hand...booked COU-DFW-LAX this morning for next Monday. Ticketing got hung up because COU-DFW upgrade cleared too fast, but once that was sorted both legs cleared comp upgrades within a few hours of booking. COU-DFW was J3/I0 and DFW-LAX was J7/I3 when I booked. I was considering whether to do miles+copay, but they rendered that question moot.
#359
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Live: IWI; Work: DCA/Everywhere; Play: LAS/SJU/MLE
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Ambassador/LTP, Nat'l Exec Elite, LEYE Gold
Posts: 6,670
But I have my doubts that any will pop up given that there's only J availability. I have been watching things pretty closely the past year and AA seems to do a remarkably good job of predicting when it will and won't sell seats at the higher prices... not perfect, but far and away the majority of times I say "there's no way they'll fill the cabin without and D and I inventory" it ends up filling up with upgrades only at the gate... and in situations with ample I (and any significant quantity of C) inventory in advance, the gate upgrade is easier.
So... I'd keep an eye on things. I suppose you could go ahead and waitlist the milage & copay upgrade, but I'd still set the ExpertFlyer alert. I wouldn't expect to see more than C1 if C comes up at all. I also wouldn't expect the cost to come down (presumably if you're looking at J0 it's already >$1900). Unlike LAX there's only 1 redeye from SFO so I imagine it'll end up filling up closer in.
Maybe someone else can chime in re: likelihood of your clearing a battlefield upgrade. I'm a ~$23k EXP but I've lost patience gambling on anything as long as a transcon so I don't know whether you'd be in the handful to clear but my hunch is no.
#360
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Live: IWI; Work: DCA/Everywhere; Play: LAS/SJU/MLE
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Ambassador/LTP, Nat'l Exec Elite, LEYE Gold
Posts: 6,670
On the other hand...booked COU-DFW-LAX this morning for next Monday. Ticketing got hung up because COU-DFW upgrade cleared too fast, but once that was sorted both legs cleared comp upgrades within a few hours of booking. COU-DFW was J3/I0 and DFW-LAX was J7/I3 when I booked. I was considering whether to do miles+copay, but they rendered that question moot.