Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
Then, by
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
- Booking class
- Time of request
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)
May 1, 2019, 6:32 am
#496
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 1,372
If it's C7, there are at least 7 confirmable business upgrades available. It's not unlikely that a bunch of people have already cleared off the waitlist. If a non-status flyer calls in and asks about doing a Miles + Co-Pay upgrade at this point, it will clear. I've actually found AA to be reasonably good about clearing the waitlist into C inventory as it is released (i.e. minimal lag between release of space and system confirming upgrade requests already made...of course there are exceptions), so if EF is showing C7, there are likely more upgrades available than there are people who have requested them at that point. A Gold or non-status passenger can grab the space, and most likely wouldn't be taking it from a higher status passenger already on the wait list (because they have likely cleared or will in the matter of a few minutes when the system processes the upgrade).
At the gate, someone who is Gold would be in their normal priority spot on the airport upgrade list, which is prioritized largely the same as the pre-airport upgrade list, but which is a totally different thing, and has nothing to do with whether the flight was C7 a week out. I mean, if the flight is still C7 up to T-4, there's no one at that point who has requested an upgrade and hasn't gotten it.
Last edited by DMPHL; May 1, 2019 at 3:44 pm
May 1, 2019, 6:41 am
#497
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 30,035
Someone wouldn't have to have EF, necessarily. They could just call and ask.
If it's C7, there are at least 7 confirmable business upgrades available. It's not unlikely that a bunch of people have already cleared off the waitlist. If a non-status flyer calls in and asks about doing a Miles + Co-Pay upgrade at this point, it will clear. I've actually found AA to be reasonably good about clearing the waitlist into C inventory as it is released (i.e. minimal lag between release of space and system confirming upgrade requests already made...of course there are exceptions), so if EF is showing C7, there are likely more upgrades available than there are people who have requested them at that point. A Gold or non-status passenger can grab the space, and most likely wouldn't be taking it from a higher status passenger already on the wait list (because they have likely cleared or will in the matter of a few minutes when the system processes the upgrade).
At the gate, someone who is Gold would be in their normal priority spot on the airport upgrade list, which is prioritized largely the same as the pre-airport upgrade list, but which is a totally different thing, and has nothing to do with whether the flight was C7 a week out. I mean, if the flight is still C7 up to T-4, there's no one at that point who has requested an upgrade.
If it's C7, there are at least 7 confirmable business upgrades available. It's not unlikely that a bunch of people have already cleared off the waitlist. If a non-status flyer calls in and asks about doing a Miles + Co-Pay upgrade at this point, it will clear. I've actually found AA to be reasonably good about clearing the waitlist into C inventory as it is released (i.e. minimal lag between release of space and system confirming upgrade requests already made...of course there are exceptions), so if EF is showing C7, there are likely more upgrades available than there are people who have requested them at that point. A Gold or non-status passenger can grab the space, and most likely wouldn't be taking it from a higher status passenger already on the wait list (because they have likely cleared or will in the matter of a few minutes when the system processes the upgrade).
At the gate, someone who is Gold would be in their normal priority spot on the airport upgrade list, which is prioritized largely the same as the pre-airport upgrade list, but which is a totally different thing, and has nothing to do with whether the flight was C7 a week out. I mean, if the flight is still C7 up to T-4, there's no one at that point who has requested an upgrade.
May 1, 2019, 10:20 am
#498
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,673
In general, though not quite always, if a flight is C7 then it means that everyone should have already cleared from the waitlist. The exception occurs when a flight has only just gone C7 and the waitlist hasn't yet been processed – we don't know how often that happens, but it does happen ... most often when it is C1 or C2.
May 2, 2019, 2:43 pm
#499
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: LAX
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Gold
Posts: 181
My wife and I are booked on AA136 LAX-LHR on Friday 6/21 and waitlisted for Y>J on miles + copay. I'm Plat Pro and she's Plat. Currently J7/C0 with 28 open business seats (not that surprising 7 weeks out). I'm assuming C space probably won't open up until a couple days beforehand based on earlier responses. Anyone have experience with the Friday night LAX-LHR flights and have a guess as to our chances?
May 2, 2019, 2:57 pm
#500
Join Date: May 2017
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 369
My wife and I are booked on AA136 LAX-LHR on Friday 6/21 and waitlisted for Y>J on miles + copay. I'm Plat Pro and she's Plat. Currently J7/C0 with 28 open business seats (not that surprising 7 weeks out). I'm assuming C space probably won't open up until a couple days beforehand based on earlier responses. Anyone have experience with the Friday night LAX-LHR flights and have a guess as to our chances?
May 2, 2019, 3:03 pm
#501
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: LAX
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Gold
Posts: 181
Thanks, I'll keep my fingers crossed.
May 4, 2019, 12:30 pm
#502
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Washington DC
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 66
Some data points from last week of travel, platinum pro.
4/28: DCA-PHL-DFW-ONT: cleared first leg 72 hours out, #5 of 25 and 6 of 15 on list for the last two.
5/1: ONT-DFW-ORD-DCA: 5 of 10 on the first leg: 10 of 45 on the second: cleared 3rd leg at 72 hours. Returned via Chicago to try and upgrade on the a 787, top two in the list did clear.
5/4: DCA-BOS: SDFC to an earlier flight, #2 on the list no one cleared. Figured this would be an easy clear on a Saturday and it was e90 and not 319.
5/6: BOS-DCA: cleared at 72.
4/28: DCA-PHL-DFW-ONT: cleared first leg 72 hours out, #5 of 25 and 6 of 15 on list for the last two.
5/1: ONT-DFW-ORD-DCA: 5 of 10 on the first leg: 10 of 45 on the second: cleared 3rd leg at 72 hours. Returned via Chicago to try and upgrade on the a 787, top two in the list did clear.
5/4: DCA-BOS: SDFC to an earlier flight, #2 on the list no one cleared. Figured this would be an easy clear on a Saturday and it was e90 and not 319.
5/6: BOS-DCA: cleared at 72.
May 4, 2019, 12:46 pm
#503
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,673
My wife and I are booked on AA136 LAX-LHR on Friday 6/21 and waitlisted for Y>J on miles + copay. I'm Plat Pro and she's Plat. Currently J7/C0 with 28 open business seats (not that surprising 7 weeks out). I'm assuming C space probably won't open up until a couple days beforehand based on earlier responses. Anyone have experience with the Friday night LAX-LHR flights and have a guess as to our chances?
But inventory management is a weird thing - LHR-PHX generally has fewer than 10 J seats taken a week or so before the flight, but C only opens up a day or so before the flight, and there seem to be only 2-3 people on the waitlist. On the day of travel it tends to fill up (non-revs or ToDs upgrades I guess). You'd expect them to open C (or even U) much earlier, but that seems very rare.
May 5, 2019, 5:30 am
#504
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 82
Upgrade for award ticket
Just booked an award RT ticket between JFK-MXP for the memorial day weekend (outbound 5/24, inbound 5/27) on AA198/199 for a quick weekend getaway.
What are the chances of upgrade on this route? So far showing C0 for both legs about 3 weeks out.
I'm hoping this route is mostly leisure travelers and not CK heavy so I won't be too low in the upgrade priority. I'm an EXP with $25k rolling EQD
I have MCE seats selected both ways, but am hoping to at least score premium economy seats both ways if J is full
Thanks
What are the chances of upgrade on this route? So far showing C0 for both legs about 3 weeks out.
I'm hoping this route is mostly leisure travelers and not CK heavy so I won't be too low in the upgrade priority. I'm an EXP with $25k rolling EQD
I have MCE seats selected both ways, but am hoping to at least score premium economy seats both ways if J is full
Thanks
May 5, 2019, 7:29 am
#505
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Just booked an award RT ticket between JFK-MXP for the memorial day weekend (outbound 5/24, inbound 5/27) on AA198/199 for a quick weekend getaway.
What are the chances of upgrade on this route? So far showing C0 for both legs about 3 weeks out.
I'm hoping this route is mostly leisure travelers and not CK heavy so I won't be too low in the upgrade priority. I'm an EXP with $25k rolling EQD
I have MCE seats selected both ways, but am hoping to at least score premium economy seats both ways if J is full
Thanks
What are the chances of upgrade on this route? So far showing C0 for both legs about 3 weeks out.
I'm hoping this route is mostly leisure travelers and not CK heavy so I won't be too low in the upgrade priority. I'm an EXP with $25k rolling EQD
I have MCE seats selected both ways, but am hoping to at least score premium economy seats both ways if J is full
Thanks
May 5, 2019, 2:05 pm
#506
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 82
I thought EXP is eligible for upgrade to award tickets as well, but I've never done this before
May 5, 2019, 2:14 pm
#507
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, AA Million Miles, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,586
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That said - EXPs do get access to Premium Economy seats with 24 hours of departure, if any are available, and the system is behaving itself. I've not seen any reports of information about if this works on award tickets or not. Would be curious to know.
May 5, 2019, 2:21 pm
#508
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 82
EXP's are eligible for upgrades on award tickets on flights where the complimentary/500 mile upgrade system is in place (essentially shorthaul). JFK-MXP (or any other international longhaul) is not included.
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That said - EXPs do get access to Premium Economy seats with 24 hours of departure, if any are available, and the system is behaving itself. I've not seen any reports of information about if this works on award tickets or not. Would be curious to know.
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That said - EXPs do get access to Premium Economy seats with 24 hours of departure, if any are available, and the system is behaving itself. I've not seen any reports of information about if this works on award tickets or not. Would be curious to know.
May 6, 2019, 12:13 pm
#509
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: OC CA
Programs: AA PLAT 2MM
Posts: 37
Will be flying LAX-HKG on AA then HKG-TPE on CX in 5wks, and need 14,381 base miles to make 2MM. Seats in Economy (Flexible fare) are available, but would have to waitlist for that 25K miles + $350 upgrade each way to Business for LAX-HKG on AA. I really don't want to fly LAX-HKG in Economy, so would prefer to purchase only when I know the upgrade is available.
So here are my questions -feedback & advise will be greatly appreciated:
So here are my questions -feedback & advise will be greatly appreciated:
- Will I earn at least 14,381 base miles with AA & CX in Economy?
- What are the odds of upgrades opening up well in advance of my trip, so I can book in Economy then upgrade all at once? (there's currently around 30 open seats each way in Business)
- If waiting isn't a good option, then what are my chances for snagging those upgrades before my trip if I book in Economy now and waitlist? (Ticket price approx $2150, I'm AA Gold, 1MM, 2018: 37K EQM / $6K EQD, 2019: 0 EQM/EQD)
1. Most CX-marketed flights don’t earn any miles for economy. That said, LAX-HKG-LAX is 14,520 miles, so you should reach your EQM target (but not much room for error).
2. Probably not likely.
3. This will depend on when and on what day you are flying. It would help if you were flying around holidays when there is less business travel.
$2150 seems high for economy. Have you checked what the price of a premium economy ticket? Also, if business is essential, I would consider outright buying business from a different point of departure (e.g., YVR) and have a separate positioning ticket. I would also search flights to TSA, which opens up more options on JL.
So here are my questions -feedback & advise will be greatly appreciated:
Thanks for your insight -to keep within my travel budget, I booked Economy LAX-HKG-TPE, and Business for the return (actually cheaper than the other way around). For whatever reason AA wasn't allowing me to book this way previously, but on Monday this mixed itin opened up so I snagged it. Checked again since then and no longer available...
Called AA to waitlist for the outbound upgrade -there's still plenty of J inventory, so come on upgrade!
Thanks for your insight -to keep within my travel budget, I booked Economy LAX-HKG-TPE, and Business for the return (actually cheaper than the other way around). For whatever reason AA wasn't allowing me to book this way previously, but on Monday this mixed itin opened up so I snagged it. Checked again since then and no longer available...
Called AA to waitlist for the outbound upgrade -there's still plenty of J inventory, so come on upgrade!
It is often the case that business class is cheaper depending on where you're originating. It's why, for example, YVR-LAX-HKG could be several thousand dollars cheaper than LAX-HKG.
Good luck with the upgrade. I've generally had pretty good luck with LAX-HKG, but I wouldn't expect the upgrade to clear until closer to departure.
Good luck with the upgrade. I've generally had pretty good luck with LAX-HKG, but I wouldn't expect the upgrade to clear until closer to departure.
Fortunately the price in J for that outbound itinerary decreased (actually $12 less than what I paid in economy), so now I'm booked in J for my entire trip -nice way to break 2M miles!
Last edited by Ready2SailAway; May 6, 2019 at 12:21 pm Reason: grammar correction
May 7, 2019, 7:16 pm
#510
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: RDU
Posts: 83
I'm T-14 for DFW-NRT tomorrow with no luck so far. Looks like there are still 2 seats available for sale, so holding out some very slim hope.