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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old May 10, 2019, 1:45 am
  #526  
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Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: KHOU/KIAH
Programs: AA EXP | Marriott Bonvoy Titanium| Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 11,268
Originally Posted by Ready2SailAway
Spoke again to an AA rep -said my upgrade chances as Gold were pretty low with only 25% J inventory remaining for my outbound itinerary LAX-HKG-TPE.

Fortunately the price in J for that outbound itinerary decreased (actually $12 less than what I paid in economy), so now I'm booked in J for my entire trip -nice way to break 2M miles!
do you mind sharing what that price was? just curious if you originally had a crazy high Y fare or somehow got a crazy low J one.

if not, no worries.
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Old May 10, 2019, 1:45 am
  #527  
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Posts: 11,268
Originally Posted by fls114
I'm T-14 for DFW-NRT tomorrow with no luck so far. Looks like there are still 2 seats available for sale, so holding out some very slim hope.
did you clear?
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Old May 10, 2019, 2:24 am
  #528  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Originally Posted by Antarius
do you mind sharing what that price was? just curious if you originally had a crazy high Y fare or somehow got a crazy low J one.

if not, no worries.
If memory serves, OP was originally looking at an economy round-trip for approximately $2150, which seemed high to me. No idea what OP paid for economy on the outbound and business on the return.
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Old May 10, 2019, 9:47 am
  #529  
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: GCM, formerly DFW
Programs: AA Exp
Posts: 273
<retracted>

Last edited by bscooter26; May 14, 2019 at 3:19 pm Reason: Wrong thread
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Old May 10, 2019, 10:50 am
  #530  
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: The OC, DC, RIC
Programs: AA Plat, Marriott Platinum, Hertz Presidential Circle
Posts: 136
Originally Posted by Antarius
the date helps you (Wednesday) , but it's really too far out/unknown to estimate.

EF only goes to J7. How do you know there are 8 seats?
I was just going by number of seats left. Down to 6 open seats but EF has J5. Just two days ago there were 11 open seats so it seems to be looking bleak. How I love the 777 with seemingly unlimited J seats.
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Old May 10, 2019, 5:20 pm
  #531  
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: OC CA
Programs: AA PLAT 2MM
Posts: 37
Originally Posted by Antarius
do you mind sharing what that price was? just curious if you originally had a crazy high Y fare or somehow got a crazy low J one.

if not, no worries.
I was originally looking at $2150 LAX-HKG-TPE RT in "Flexible" economy, but after a couple of days the return price in business dropped to within my travel budget so booked online for $3640 (L outbound, I return) -then called AA to request the mileage upgrade for the AA LAX-HKG segment, but being Gold and with business cabin already at 75% sold, the probability of my outbound upgrade was low.

Then exactly one week ago I saw that the price for my outbound LAX-HKG-TPE in business dropped, so I called AA to book that outbound in I and received a credit of $11.50 -saving my miles for another day! ^
Zacnlinc and flyingeph12 like this.
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Old May 10, 2019, 8:03 pm
  #532  
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 26
Originally Posted by nachosdelux
did the rep say "business is sold out" or "business is not available"? The latter could have been in reference to an SWU upgrade.
Two agents said business was sold out.
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Old May 10, 2019, 8:48 pm
  #533  
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Join Date: Aug 2012
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Originally Posted by noobalert
Two agents said business was sold out.
they may have misunderstood or maybe thought you were asking about the upgrade.

anything greater than J0 means a seat can be purchased.
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Old May 11, 2019, 9:48 pm
  #534  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, AA Million Miles, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,586
My flights this week:

DEN-ORD, 738, Wednesday morning departure - cleared at 100 hours
ORD-DCA, 738, Wednesday mid-afternoon departure - cleared at 48 hours
DCA-ORD, 738, Saturday noon departure - cleared at 100 hours
ORD-DEN, 738, Saturday afternoon departure - cleared at 100+ hours (same time as the preceding segment)
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Old May 12, 2019, 7:59 am
  #535  
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 30,035
Originally Posted by bse118
My flights this week:

DEN-ORD, 738, Wednesday morning departure - cleared at 100 hours
ORD-DCA, 738, Wednesday mid-afternoon departure - cleared at 48 hours
DCA-ORD, 738, Saturday noon departure - cleared at 100 hours
ORD-DEN, 738, Saturday afternoon departure - cleared at 100+ hours (same time as the preceding segment)
Must be nice flying out of Denver!
flyer0123 likes this.
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Old May 12, 2019, 8:48 am
  #536  
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: home = LAX
Posts: 25,934
Originally Posted by saleen22
I was just going by number of seats left. Down to 6 open seats but EF has J5. Just two days ago there were 11 open seats so it seems to be looking bleak. How I love the 777 with seemingly unlimited J seats.
Open seats are the same things as the number of seats left. Some people don't reserve seats ahead of time for one reason or another, and so the number of open seats should never used as the number of available seats.
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Old May 13, 2019, 6:45 pm
  #537  
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Programs: SQ AA TK
Posts: 1,438
PP with 9+K EQD.

JFK-SLC Sunday afternoon, didn't clear. No. 2 + 3 (companion) on the list. Only no. 1 clear.
PHX-SLC Sunday afternoon, didn't clear. No. 2 + 3 (companion) again on the list. 2 seats, so I declined for such a short flight. GA gave it to 1 and 4. Surprised to even come this close given it was A319 flying.
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Old May 15, 2019, 6:22 pm
  #538  
 
Join Date: May 2019
Programs: American Airlines EXP
Posts: 10
Flying from PHX-LAX-NRT on AA Flight 169 on May 24th . . .

I am EXP with only just over 15K EQD's, currently holding a PE (W Class) seat. I've been wait-listed using a SWU. What do you think my chances are? Flight currently shows 11 open Business Class seats for sale. This is the first SWU Ive ever used.

Thanks!

Xerxes
Xerxes_Ren is offline  
Old May 15, 2019, 6:26 pm
  #539  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,492
Originally Posted by Xerxes_Ren
I am EXP with only just over 15K EQD's, currently holding a PE (W Class) seat. I've been wait-listed using a SWU. What do you think my chances are? Flight currently shows 11 open Business Class seats for sale. This is the first SWU Ive ever used.

Thanks!

Xerxes
Your chances are good but in typical AA fashion it probably won't clear till until around 36-24 hrs before the flight. While Fridays are certainly busy days to Asia, the good news is that flying out on the Friday of Memorial Day weekend there's unlikely to be lots of last minute paid business travel. Good luck!
JJeffrey is online now  
Old May 16, 2019, 8:24 am
  #540  
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Miami FL
Programs: AA Gold
Posts: 48
Looking for some help with a business class upgrade award, Flying AA 38, Friday May 24 MIA to LHR, looking at AA seat map shows 12 seats not blocked / open. In looking at EF it shows at least 3 seats available in the J, R and D classes, does that mean there is 9 seats total available to sell or that the 3 seats fall into either class and there is only 3 seats left to sell? Thanks in advance for any help.
Fagin is offline  


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