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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old May 20, 2019, 9:50 am
  #556  
 
Join Date: May 2019
Programs: American Airlines EXP
Posts: 10
I purchased a Premium Economy (Class W) ticket on American Airlines for my flight to HKG from PHX. I have requested an upgrade for my AA Legs (PHX-LAX-NRT.) However, the last leg of my flight (NRT-HKG) is operated by CX and has me in Regular Economy! Is there any way, anyway at all other than paying to upgrade my entire itinerary that I can purchase or upgrade with miles just that CX leg to Business class?

Any help here would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks
Xerxes_Ren is offline  
Old May 20, 2019, 9:55 am
  #557  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Programs: AAdvantage PP
Posts: 13,913
[QUOTE=Antarius;31117699]There is no premium economy on LAX-JFK [/QUOTE

On the MIA/LAX 77W flight like all domestic flights PE is sold as Y to PLT and above (GLD at T-24), full fares and probably a few BEs that get lucky.
allset2travel likes this.
MiamiAirport Formerly NY George is offline  
Old May 20, 2019, 11:37 am
  #558  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by Xerxes_Ren
I purchased a Premium Economy (Class W) ticket on American Airlines for my flight to HKG from PHX. I have requested an upgrade for my AA Legs (PHX-LAX-NRT.) However, the last leg of my flight (NRT-HKG) is operated by CX and has me in Regular Economy! Is there any way, anyway at all other than paying to upgrade my entire itinerary that I can purchase or upgrade with miles just that CX leg to Business class?

Any help here would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks
Not really, no. When you arrive in NRT to go to HKG, you can ask about a cash upgrade to J at the counter. That's about it.
econometrics is offline  
Old May 20, 2019, 4:19 pm
  #559  
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Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 319
Hi all, flying LAX-NRT this Thursday with a companion. 5 seats currently for sale in J. EXP with $35k rolling spend. What do you think the odds of clearing are?

Thanks!
Gabrca is offline  
Old May 20, 2019, 4:45 pm
  #560  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: KHOU/KIAH
Programs: AA EXP | Marriott Bonvoy Titanium| Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 11,256
Originally Posted by Gabrca
Hi all, flying LAX-NRT this Thursday with a companion. 5 seats currently for sale in J. EXP with $35k rolling spend. What do you think the odds of clearing are?

Thanks!
I'd say pretty good. But that's just based on my experience.
Antarius is online now  
Old May 20, 2019, 5:21 pm
  #561  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by Antarius
I'd say pretty good. But that's just based on my experience.
I agree. High probability.
econometrics is offline  
Old May 21, 2019, 11:33 am
  #562  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7
If EF is showing C-2, should I be calling American to process my upgrade? Or is that only whenI am using miles for the upgrade?
randyr6 is offline  
Old May 21, 2019, 11:35 am
  #563  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 1,372
Originally Posted by randyr6
If EF is showing C-2, should I be calling American to process my upgrade? Or is that only whenI am using miles for the upgrade?
If you are using any upgrade instrument (SWU, Miles, BXP1, etc.), I would call to have them process the upgrade. If you are talking about regular 500-mile upgrades, that does not clear into C.
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DMPHL is offline  
Old May 21, 2019, 2:56 pm
  #564  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7
Given my lowly status, would one recommend that I upgrade using miles plus cash? Thank you.

Last edited by randyr6; May 21, 2019 at 3:03 pm
randyr6 is offline  
Old May 21, 2019, 3:05 pm
  #565  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, BA Gold, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,989
Originally Posted by randyr6
Given my lowly status, would one recommend that I upgrade using cash plus points? Thank you.
Yes, since there's 'C' space, it would be highly recommended, especially as a GLD, to lock in the upgrade with 15k miles + $75 on this route. You'll be behind CK, EXP, PPRO, and PLTs for complimentary/500 mile upgrades. Also, since the flight length is ~2500 miles, this will cost you 5 upgrades ($40x5) as a GLD if it eventually clears, which is far from a guarantee. If it were actually free, it might be worth holding out, but you'll be paying one way or the other for your upgrades as GLD, with the exception of the "free" 500 mile upgrade coupons you earn every 12,500 miles.

The other advantages of locking in the Biz seat early are pre-departure Flagship lounge access, the ability to select your preferred seat, and the opportunity to choose your meal online up until 24 hours before the flight.
metallo is online now  
Old May 22, 2019, 12:50 pm
  #566  
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Valley of the Sun, AZ, USA
Programs: AA Dirt, HHonors Silver
Posts: 495
What's going on here - PHX-EWR on 6/16

I waitlisted for miles+copay upgrade a month ago when I bought this ticket (return cleared right away as there was C space). Strange thing is that EF shows C7, but the price in F is nearly 3x the other flights for the day (they are showing $540). AA won't tell me if others are on the wait list, and I know if I get to the 100 hour mark, then I'm sunk. Seat map shows 7 seats open vs 9 a month ago when I booked. Not seen any C space open for any of the flights save the red eye. So my questions:

1) Why is this flight priced nearly 3x higher than the others in F when there's still J7 (seems as though AA is trying NOT to sell these seats)?
2) Will AA tell me if there are others waitlisted, or is this just not something they do?
3) Any guesses on odds they will open C space prior to T-100 (when my chances go from slim to absolutely none)?



AA Website

EF availability
FlyinMike is offline  
Old May 22, 2019, 12:56 pm
  #567  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by FlyinMike
1) Why is this flight priced nearly 3x higher than the others in F when there's still J7 (seems as though AA is trying NOT to sell these seats)?
2) Will AA tell me if there are others waitlisted, or is this just not something they do?
3) Any guesses on odds they will open C space prior to T-100 (when my chances go from slim to absolutely none)?
1. Only God and AA rev mgmt know
2. No they will not
3. I'm not familiar with that routing, but being ex-AA hub, probably low is my guess
econometrics is offline  
Old May 22, 2019, 3:17 pm
  #568  
 
Join Date: May 2019
Programs: American Airlines EXP
Posts: 10
Ive been monitoring ExpertFlyer for J class availability for an upgrade. J-Class availability went from J7 to J0 in less than 1 hour but it still shows 10 unassigned seats. With PE having a W5 availability but showing no seats available in the seat map. Has anyone ever seen this before? And does this mean my chances for an upgrade are now gone?

Flight: AA 169
LAX-NRT
Date: May 24th

Any insights would be greatly appreciated.
Xerxes_Ren is offline  
Old May 22, 2019, 3:23 pm
  #569  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by Xerxes_Ren
Ive been monitoring ExpertFlyer for J class availability for an upgrade. J-Class availability went from J7 to J0 in less than 1 hour but it still shows 10 unassigned seats. With PE having a W5 availability but showing no seats available in the seat map. Has anyone ever seen this before? And does this mean my chances for an upgrade are now gone?

Flight: AA 169
LAX-NRT
Date: May 24th

Any insights would be greatly appreciated.
There are 9 unassigned seats. I'm not sure what is happening here, but similar things have happened on some of my flights to / from LHR in the past 8 months. Watch T24, as my guess some of those seats will go on sale again. Just my guess from experience.

Your upgrade chances are not completely shot here. I still think there's a decent chance to get upgraded.
econometrics is offline  
Old May 22, 2019, 3:39 pm
  #570  
 
Join Date: May 2019
Programs: American Airlines EXP
Posts: 10
Originally Posted by econometrics
There are 9 unassigned seats. I'm not sure what is happening here, but similar things have happened on some of my flights to / from LHR in the past 8 months. Watch T24, as my guess some of those seats will go on sale again. Just my guess from experience.

Your upgrade chances are not completely shot here. I still think there's a decent chance to get upgraded.
Thanks for the reply. I hope you're right. I'm thinking they may have over-sold PE. I hold a W-Class ticket currently and perhaps that will help my chances of upgrade.

Thanks Again!
Xerxes_Ren is offline  


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