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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old May 22, 2019, 3:45 pm
  #571  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by Xerxes_Ren
I hold a W-Class ticket currently and perhaps that will help my chances of upgrade.
YW.

As much as you would think a W fare would help your upgrade chances, it doesn't currently. (unless it's a very unusual circumstance) It's all about your rolling elite qualifying dollar spend and elite status.

But yeah, I've seen quite a few flights go J0 for a few weeks leading up to departure, then go J7 within 36-24 hours out. Strange.
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Old May 22, 2019, 3:48 pm
  #572  
 
Join Date: May 2019
Programs: American Airlines EXP
Posts: 10
Originally Posted by econometrics
YW.

As much as you would think a W fare would help your upgrade chances, it doesn't currently. (unless it's a very unusual circumstance) It's all about your rolling elite qualifying dollar spend and elite status.

But yeah, I've seen quite a few flights go J0 for a few weeks leading up to departure, then go J7 within 36-24 hours out. Strange.
I see. When you say "rolling EQDs" does that mean the total Elite Qualifying dollars I have to-date? Or something else?

I am AA EXP with 15,100 EQD's . . not sure if thats low or not. . .

Thanks!
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Old May 22, 2019, 3:51 pm
  #573  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by Xerxes_Ren
I see. When you say "rolling EQDs" does that mean the total Elite Qualifying dollars I have to-date? Or something else?

I am AA EXP with 15,100 EQD's . . not sure if thats low or not. . .

Thanks!
Correct, basically. AA prioritizes you on the upgrade list by status level first (CK, EXP, PPRO, etc.) then by your 12-month rolling EQD spend. In your case, this will be your EQD amount from May 24, 2018 to May 24, 2019.

$15K EQD is probably median range for EXP this year. However, that will be the lower end with the new $15K spend requirements. I think being at $20K+ puts you above average.
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Old May 22, 2019, 3:55 pm
  #574  
 
Join Date: May 2019
Programs: American Airlines EXP
Posts: 10
Originally Posted by econometrics
Correct, basically. AA prioritizes you on the upgrade list by status level first (CK, EXP, PPRO, etc.) then by your 12-month rolling EQD spend. In your case, this will be your EQD amount from May 24, 2018 to May 24, 2019.

$15K EQD is probably median range for EXP this year. However, that will be the lower end with the new $15K spend requirements. I think being at $20K+ puts you above average.
If that total is indeed from May 24th 2018 - May 24th 2019, then my EQD is much higher. I have 15,241 (just looked) just for this calendar year. I was PPRO at the end of 2018 and I am almost certain I was over 20K EQD's. Is there a way I can see what my EQDs are for a given time period?

Thanks!

Jason
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Old May 22, 2019, 3:57 pm
  #575  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by Xerxes_Ren
Is there a way I can see what my EQDs are for a given time period?
Unfortunately, no. It has to be personally calculated by you.

If you're north of $20K rolling EQD, I think you're likely to get a J seat on this flight.
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Old May 22, 2019, 4:11 pm
  #576  
 
Join Date: May 2019
Programs: American Airlines EXP
Posts: 10
Originally Posted by econometrics
Unfortunately, no. It has to be personally calculated by you.

If you're north of $20K rolling EQD, I think you're likely to get a J seat on this flight.
Using the AA Activity log on the website, I calculate my rolling EQD's are 23,913.

I will hope for the best. . .

Thanks for all your help clarifying this process for me. You're fantastic!
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Old May 22, 2019, 4:13 pm
  #577  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by Xerxes_Ren
Using the AA Activity log on the website, I calculate my rolling EQD's are 23,913.

I will hope for the best. . .

Thanks for all your help clarifying this process for me. You're fantastic!
^ Write back and let us know if you clear the upgrade. I'm interested to see, as a sudden J0 with 9-10 open seats is sorta strange.
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Old May 22, 2019, 6:00 pm
  #578  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: DAY
Programs: Marriott Platinum, HHonors Diamond, AA ExPLT
Posts: 116
First try for using SWU on an international flight: DFW-ICN (AA 281) on 5/24. I’m starting to sweat it. Anyone have experience or insight on this flight?

Thanks!
T. Sanderson is offline  
Old May 22, 2019, 7:59 pm
  #579  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Washington DC
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 66
Some data points over the last few weeks as a PP on domestic flights.

5/7- DCA-LGA: cleared at 72
5/8- LGA-DCA: cleared at 72 for original flight, SDFC and was #2, but didn’t clear.

5/13 - LGA-DFW-COS: #8 and #5 respectively.
5/17 - COS-ORD-DCA: #2 and cleared at the gate (regional aircraft) and did not clear as #6 from ORD (we had mechanical issues anyways and took another flight).

5/20 - DCA-CLT-GNV: #6 on first leg and cleared 2nd at 72 hours

5/22 - GNV-CLT-DCA: Changed this flight on 5/21. Confirmed on 1st leg about 3 hours after booking and on CLT-DCA at 4 hours from departure.

Upgrades continue to clear on regional flights that don’t involve DFW, and CLT-DCA at non-peak times.
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Old May 22, 2019, 8:12 pm
  #580  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by T. Sanderson
First try for using SWU on an international flight: DFW-ICN (AA 281) on 5/24. I’m starting to sweat it. Anyone have experience or insight on this flight?

Thanks!
Currently showing no biz seats for sale, but 8 unassigned (open) seats. Sometimes AA seems to block out J seats for sale on this flight, then release a dump of them 24 hours or so before departure.

So, not looking good right now. But that couple possibly change. Keep an eye on it.
T. Sanderson likes this.
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Old May 22, 2019, 11:17 pm
  #581  
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: The OC, DC, RIC
Programs: AA Plat, Marriott Platinum, Hertz Presidential Circle
Posts: 136
Originally Posted by T. Sanderson
First try for using SWU on an international flight: DFW-ICN (AA 281) on 5/24. I’m starting to sweat it. Anyone have experience or insight on this flight?

Thanks!
Let us know if your upgrade clears. I'm on the same route on 5/29 and there are 5 unassigned seats but J3 as of now. Haven't seen any C inventory open up in weeks. Talked to a friend of mine who said this is a pretty tough one to upgrade on.

Last edited by saleen22; May 22, 2019 at 11:18 pm Reason: Added quote
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Old May 23, 2019, 8:28 am
  #582  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AMEX Platinum, Hyatt Diamond, RC/Marriot Platinum, Hilton Diamond, SPG Gold, IHG Platinum
Posts: 388
Had a question I couldn't find in searches, maybe issue is that I didn't know how to properly phrase the key words. On a 787 with Business, Premium Economy, and Main Cabin, if I purchase a revenue ticket in the Premium Economy cabin and put myself on the upgrade list using miles as a lowly Platinum, will I be ahead of Executive Platinums who are in Main Cabin since I purchased a Premium Economy seat?
cascade is offline  
Old May 23, 2019, 8:48 am
  #583  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Originally Posted by cascade
Had a question I couldn't find in searches, maybe issue is that I didn't know how to properly phrase the key words. On a 787 with Business, Premium Economy, and Main Cabin, if I purchase a revenue ticket in the Premium Economy cabin and put myself on the upgrade list using miles as a lowly Platinum, will I be ahead of Executive Platinums who are in Main Cabin since I purchased a Premium Economy seat?
No. Upgrade priority is based on elite status and then rolling EQD.
flyingeph12 is offline  
Old May 23, 2019, 8:58 am
  #584  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AMEX Platinum, Hyatt Diamond, RC/Marriot Platinum, Hilton Diamond, SPG Gold, IHG Platinum
Posts: 388
Originally Posted by flyingeph12

No. Upgrade priority is based on elite status and then rolling EQD.
Seems a little crazy to me that upgrade cost and priority is the same regardless of Premium Economy and Main Cabin considering Premium Economy is more than double the cost...I guess it is what it is
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Old May 23, 2019, 9:21 am
  #585  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Originally Posted by cascade
Seems a little crazy to me that upgrade cost and priority is the same regardless of Premium Economy and Main Cabin considering Premium Economy is more than double the cost...I guess it is what it is
I don’t expect the ability to upgrade from economy to business (i.e., skipping premium economy) will stick around. Additionally, even within economy, I am sure there are those who pay much more than others, but booking class is only used to break EQD ties. Ultimately, AA has chosen to reward long-time spend over immediate spend—although this is not the only option and is not what every airline does, I wouldn’t say it’s “crazy.”
flyingeph12 is offline  


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