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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jun 14, 2019, 10:05 pm
  #631  
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 532
Mid-September 2019: Finding AA Miles Upgrade to HKG/BKK or Sticker Upgrade to OGG

I am used to using the United website, so I apologize for my ignorance here. I am looking to fly BWI-DFW-HKG or BWI-DFW-HKG-BKK in mid-September for 7-10 days. How can I find out if there is upgrade availability to upgrade for 25,000 miles and $350 each way?

Alternatively, I might buy a BWI-DFW-OGG economy ticket. What is the likelihood of a Platinum getting upgraded with stickers on a mid-week DFW-OGG flight? Also, is the upgrade to Premium Econ or First?
EQDsSUCK is offline  
Old Jun 15, 2019, 12:21 pm
  #632  
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: CMH, sometimes AVP, formerly down the Shore
Programs: UA 1K/3MM, AA EXP/3MM, DL MM, former fan of TWA
Posts: 1,854
Just sharing a data point... For the first time in a long time I missed an SWU on an international flight. LAX-GRU.

I am relatively high-$ EXP and fly to GRU pretty often, usually through Miami, sometimes Dallas. This time I was coming in from Asia and the LAX departure was a lot more convenient. The 787-9 configuration concerned me a bit for the upgrade space, but I went with it. I wound up 2 on the list and 1 cleared at the gate. I think I will stick to Miami departures/arrivals for future Brazil flights!
gary_nj is offline  
Old Jun 17, 2019, 8:05 am
  #633  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: ILM/STT
Programs: AA Exp, Admirals Club
Posts: 192
Good morning.

I have lurked on FT for a very long time. Many threads have been helpful to me. This one particularly so.

I thought I would let y’all follow along. I’m headed CLT-STT on Thursday AM. It’s currently sitting at J7 C0. I have requested upgrades with miles. I’m a lowly Gold Status. Coming up on 72 hours in a few. I didn’t see any other STT posts.

I will keep you posted.
onanisland is offline  
Old Jun 17, 2019, 12:12 pm
  #634  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, BA Gold, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,989
Originally Posted by onanisland
Good morning.

I have lurked on FT for a very long time. Many threads have been helpful to me. This one particularly so.

I thought I would let y’all follow along. I’m headed CLT-STT on Thursday AM. It’s currently sitting at J7 C0. I have requested upgrades with miles. I’m a lowly Gold Status. Coming up on 72 hours in a few. I didn’t see any other STT posts.

I will keep you posted.
Realize that sometimes 'R' inventory (comp/500 mile upgrades) will open before the 'C' space (mileage upgrades), so it can actually sometimes be a disadvantage to have a mileage upgrade still requested so late in the game.

As an EXP in your scenario, I'd have already requested to change to a comp (500 mile) upgrade now that the EXP 100 hr window has opened. Since you're GLD, things are a bit different, because you're not 500 mile upgrade eligible until T-24. Therefore, it would seem reasonable to keep the mileage upgrade requested until at least T-24h, but after that, it's a toss up as to whether 'C' space will open prior to the gate -- you could actually potentially be skipped by other GLDs on the list who requested 500 mile upgrades if 'R' opens before 'C' inventory ('C' may actually never open at all at this stage, although with J7 still available, it very well may).

I suspect you actually have a very good shot at clearing this upgrade -- for Thursday, there are 8 unassigned J seats, and two of the Y exit rows are wide open, indicating likely few elites on this flight. It also looks like they do release 'C' on this route if seats are unsold, as Tuesday's flight is J3C2 and Wednesday is J7C3 already, so you may not even have to wait much longer to be upgraded.
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metallo is offline  
Old Jun 17, 2019, 1:36 pm
  #635  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: ILM/STT
Programs: AA Exp, Admirals Club
Posts: 192
Originally Posted by metallo
I suspect you actually have a very good shot at clearing this upgrade -- for Thursday, there are 8 unassigned J seats, and two of the Y exit rows are wide open, indicating likely few elites on this flight. It also looks like they do release 'C' on this route if seats are unsold, as Tuesday's flight is J3C2 and Wednesday is J7C3 already, so you may not even have to wait much longer to be upgraded.
Thank you! We are currently in exit row. So two of those are us.
onanisland is offline  
Old Jun 18, 2019, 5:07 am
  #636  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 24
SWU upgrade Y to J on AA181 LAX-PEK on Monday June 17th. Cleared after I was already sitting in my Y seat. EXP with high teens rolling spend.
mikhailm is offline  
Old Jun 18, 2019, 11:14 am
  #637  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, AA Million Miles, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,586
Just cleared a complimentary upgrade at 100+ hours for a flight on an A319 (ORD-DCA)

Saturday night flight, sure. But 100 hours out on a A319,
bse118 is offline  
Old Jun 18, 2019, 4:16 pm
  #638  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, BA Gold, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,989
Originally Posted by bse118
Just cleared a complimentary upgrade at 100+ hours for a flight on an A319 (ORD-DCA)

Saturday night flight, sure. But 100 hours out on a A319,
I cleared OAK-PHX at T-100 for a Friday evening flight a couple of months ago (the cabin was cleared from J7 all the way down to J1 right at the EXP window). I've also had it happen on a weeknight for DFW-STL. It's probably quite unusual for some routes, but sometimes the A319 actually ends up on routes where there is less demand for paid J, so it doesn't work out too badly for elites (I've also seen STL-LAX sold out weeks in advance in the 8J cabin, so it's also sometimes just hit or miss).
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metallo is offline  
Old Jun 18, 2019, 6:17 pm
  #639  
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: RSW/MIA
Programs: AA/United
Posts: 7
Hi all, I am a long time lurker on this forum, but I have never had to ask a question as I have always found an answer by searching. I have a question this time though.
I am platinum and on a recent flight from LHR to MIA I had put in for upgrades and was added to the wait list. T-48 and nothing cleared, but then about T-44 my expert flyer alert showed 7 in C, I called and asked to be placed in the available spot and was told no- then after calling back to the same answer, I asked the agent to confirm he could see the 7 available upgrades- he confirmed yes, then when I asked why I couldn't have the seat he said he would let the 'elite desk" tell me and put me on hold (I called called the elite number). After about 15 mins he comes back and says it was an error and if I refresh expert flyer they would be gone - which they were. I thanked him for his time and sighed.
Two hours later I get another expert flyer alert for two seats in C, I call and get told I cannot have them again. At this point I gave up. At the airport I didn't get an upgrade either - I was shown as 5 on the list.
Has anyone else experienced this? I thought expert flyer was to help with this and allow people to request the upgrade before the airport or am I mistaken? I am not a super high spender and my 12 month spending is only at the 6K mark.

thanks in advance for feedback.
Jaxsie is offline  
Old Jun 18, 2019, 6:50 pm
  #640  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,483
Originally Posted by Jaxsie
Hi all, I am a long time lurker on this forum, but I have never had to ask a question as I have always found an answer by searching. I have a question this time though.
I am platinum and on a recent flight from LHR to MIA I had put in for upgrades and was added to the wait list. T-48 and nothing cleared, but then about T-44 my expert flyer alert showed 7 in C, I called and asked to be placed in the available spot and was told no- then after calling back to the same answer, I asked the agent to confirm he could see the 7 available upgrades- he confirmed yes, then when I asked why I couldn't have the seat he said he would let the 'elite desk" tell me and put me on hold (I called called the elite number). After about 15 mins he comes back and says it was an error and if I refresh expert flyer they would be gone - which they were. I thanked him for his time and sighed.
Two hours later I get another expert flyer alert for two seats in C, I call and get told I cannot have them again. At this point I gave up. At the airport I didn't get an upgrade either - I was shown as 5 on the list.
Has anyone else experienced this? I thought expert flyer was to help with this and allow people to request the upgrade before the airport or am I mistaken? I am not a super high spender and my 12 month spending is only at the 6K mark.

thanks in advance for feedback.
Welcome to FT. This technique's success comes down to each individual agent. If you're on the waitlist and see C space on ExpertFlyer, when you call AA some agents will put your upgrade through while others will refuse and say you need let it clear automatically via the waitlist. Just luck of the draw, you may need to HUCA a few times, but as you saw sometimes the C space can evaporate in this time frame if AA is actively processing the upgrade waitlist.

On the few occasions where I've run into an agent that would refuse to process the upgrade when C space was showing, I typically say something like this: "So you're saying the C space is there, but you can't process it because I'm on the waitlist...I see. But if I were to call in right now and buy a new ticket and try to upgrade, you could process it. That doesn't make any sense..." Agent agrees, puts me on hold, comes back and says upgrade is confirmed. YMMV!
JJeffrey is offline  
Old Jun 18, 2019, 7:28 pm
  #641  
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: RSW/MIA
Programs: AA/United
Posts: 7
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
Welcome to FT. This technique's success comes down to each individual agent. If you're on the waitlist and see C space on ExpertFlyer, when you call AA some agents will put your upgrade through while others will refuse and say you need let it clear automatically via the waitlist. Just luck of the draw, you may need to HUCA a few times, but as you saw sometimes the C space can evaporate in this time frame if AA is actively processing the upgrade waitlist.

On the few occasions where I've run into an agent that would refuse to process the upgrade when C space was showing, I typically say something like this: "So you're saying the C space is there, but you can't process it because I'm on the waitlist...I see. But if I were to call in right now and buy a new ticket and try to upgrade, you could process it. That doesn't make any sense..." Agent agrees, puts me on hold, comes back and says upgrade is confirmed. YMMV!
thanks for the info and the suggestion, I will try that next time.
Jaxsie is offline  
Old Jun 18, 2019, 7:37 pm
  #642  
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: DFW
Programs: AA - PLT Marriott: Silver
Posts: 34
Question for you experts. Flying AA78 DFW-LHR Friday in Economy as a PLT. Upgrade requested a long time ago, seeing 7 seats open in the J seat map on AA.com, with J class still being offered for sale on AA.com, joined ExpertFlyer today, seeing availability in Biz of J 2, U 0, C 0. What's with the disconnect between the seatmap and ExpertFlyer? Are my chances nil for an upgrade at this point (not that I was expecting it as a PLT on a Friday in the Summer, but I've had it happen before flying transatlantic).

Similarily, flying AA37 MAD-DFW July 7, AA seats still for sale, showing 7 spots on AA.com seatmap, but on ExpertFlyer, J0, U0, C0. Same as above?

Thanks!
TexasAussie is offline  
Old Jun 18, 2019, 7:53 pm
  #643  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by TexasAussie
Question for you experts. Flying AA78 DFW-LHR Friday in Economy as a PLT. Upgrade requested a long time ago, seeing 7 seats open in the J seat map on AA.com, with J class still being offered for sale on AA.com, joined ExpertFlyer today, seeing availability in Biz of J 2, U 0, C 0. What's with the disconnect between the seatmap and ExpertFlyer?
J2 means there are only 2 biz seats available for sale. You seeing 7 open seats simply means that 5 people have not selected their seats yet.

Are my chances nil for an upgrade at this point (not that I was expecting it as a PLT on a Friday in the Summer, but I've had it happen before flying transatlantic).
Basically. I really doubt you'll be upgraded. Sorry.

Similarily, flying AA37 MAD-DFW July 7, AA seats still for sale, showing 7 spots on AA.com seatmap, but on ExpertFlyer, J0, U0, C0. Same as above?

Thanks!
Yep, same as above. And not looking good there, either.
econometrics is offline  
Old Jun 18, 2019, 8:21 pm
  #644  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: ILM/STT
Programs: AA Exp, Admirals Club
Posts: 192
EF just showed C4 on my flight. So I called. She told me to wait and see? HUCA?
I’m 36ish hours from that leg.

What do I tell them?

Thanks in advance.
onanisland is offline  
Old Jun 18, 2019, 8:27 pm
  #645  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by onanisland
EF just showed C4 on my flight. So I called. She told me to wait and see? HUCA?
I’m 36ish hours from that leg.

What do I tell them?

Thanks in advance.
HUCA, yes.
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econometrics is offline  


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