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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Apr 9, 2019, 1:40 am
  #436  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by chitink
what's the time frame for upgrades been lately for LAX-HKG and reverse for an EXP?
Just one data point, but my HKG-DFW flight cleared about T30. And that flight was not very full in J at all.
wireless_999 and chitink like this.
econometrics is offline  
Old Apr 9, 2019, 5:08 pm
  #437  
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA
Posts: 163
I just booked a trip SFO- LHR in May, looking at layovers with the best chance of an upgrade (PLT) using miles and found an LHR-LAX Business seat on the return for only $200 more than the PE ticket.

I was told to try SFO-DFW route and this option popped up.

Outbound is SFO-JFK which I don't love the breakout, but didn't want to get stuck for a longer haul with no upgrade.
spaige is offline  
Old Apr 9, 2019, 6:57 pm
  #438  
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 26
Any thoughts on probability of SWU clearing for LAX to/from either HND or NRT on a Monday or Tuesday in May? I have EXP but very low rolling EQM/EQD and seems like they fly the 787, but there's two per day.
noobalert is offline  
Old Apr 9, 2019, 7:55 pm
  #439  
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 30,033
Originally Posted by spaige
I just booked a trip SFO- LHR in May, looking at layovers with the best chance of an upgrade (PLT) using miles and found an LHR-LAX Business seat on the return for only $200 more than the PE ticket.

I was told to try SFO-DFW route and this option popped up.

Outbound is SFO-JFK which I don't love the breakout, but didn't want to get stuck for a longer haul with no upgrade.
That's a small delta between PE and J. What was the price of the ticket if I may ask?

I'd rather pay for the longhaul going west not east. If I can book a Y ticket and get MCE going east that's fine. After a few of the cocktails I"m out anyway lol The western route is approx an hour longer (to dfw and probably lax) so it is valuable to pay more for the J ticket.
enviroian is offline  
Old Apr 10, 2019, 4:45 am
  #440  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,483
Originally Posted by noobalert
Any thoughts on probability of SWU clearing for LAX to/from either HND or NRT on a Monday or Tuesday in May? I have EXP but very low rolling EQM/EQD and seems like they fly the 787, but there's two per day.
Like most AA longhaul routes your chances are good if you can be strategic about picking the flights. Flying on Tuesday typically helps your chances tremendously although Monday shouldn't be that hard either. If you're flexible on weeks, then just pick the flight and date that looks the most open in business and get on the waitlist. In typical AA fashion even if the J cabin is wide open it probably won't clear till 24-48 hrs. before.
JJeffrey is offline  
Old Apr 10, 2019, 9:52 am
  #441  
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Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: En Route
Programs: Many
Posts: 6,798
LGA-PBI-LGA has been QUITE difficult this year, anyone else have any data points?

EXP

So far
LGA-PBI: #1 on the list, didn't clear (to be fair I had a companion and ONE seat opened, so #3 cleared)
PBI-LGA: #1 on the list, didn't clear (to be fair I had a companion and ONE seat opened, so #3 cleared)
LGA-PBI: #1 on the list, didn't clear (to be fair I had a companion and ONE seat opened, so #3 cleared)
PBI-LGA: #1 on the list, didn't clear, no one cleared

Have another roundtrip next week (LGA-PHL-PBI-LGA this time) and the legs into and out of PBI look totally sold out again. Not optimistic about clearing.
GetSetJetSet is offline  
Old Apr 10, 2019, 12:21 pm
  #442  
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 30,033
Originally Posted by GetSetJetSet
anyone else have any data points
No, but I do have a suggestion.

Lose the companion.

HofstraJet and chitink like this.
enviroian is offline  
Old Apr 10, 2019, 1:22 pm
  #443  
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Palm Beach/ New England
Programs: AA EXP 3MM, DL GM, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 4,382
Originally Posted by GetSetJetSet
LGA-PBI-LGA has been QUITE difficult this year, anyone else have any data points?

EXP
PBI serves a high number of wealthy people -- between Palm Beach proper, Jupiter, Hobe Sound, Wellington, and Boca Raton, there are thousands of people for whom the segment price differential of, say, $400 for coach and $800 for domestic first, does not cause any burden. And because PBI is a second home and weekend resort market, many of these people travel by air.

You can either fly out of FLL, or do a connection via PHL, DCA, or CLT -- those flights tend to have more F availability IMHO than the LGA nonstop and the DFW and ORD flights.

Again, in my experience, DCA has the easiest shot at e-sticker upgrades out of PBI.
fastflyer is offline  
Old Apr 10, 2019, 2:23 pm
  #444  
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Programs: PlatPro, Globalist, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 60
My LAX > HKG (Tuesday) and HKG > LAX (Friday) upgrades both also cleared about T-30. There were about 10-15 J seats still open until upgrades started clearing...
chitink likes this.
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Old Apr 10, 2019, 3:09 pm
  #445  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: AA EP, HH LT Diamond
Posts: 1,001
I'm looking to travel to Dublin from the Washington DC area but can also include PHL in September, preferably the week of Labor Day or around that time. I'm hoping to burn my SWUs but when booking I have NEVER seen it pop up as available for the TATL segment. What are my best bets for booking this trip to increase the odds of using my SWUs. This will be my first time using them having moved to AA from DL. Any opinions or suggestions are definitely welcome. If there is a better place to post this, just let me know. Also, when looking on Expert Flyer, what fare class am I looking for to use my SWUs?
Thanks!
pdac1975 is offline  
Old Apr 10, 2019, 9:24 pm
  #446  
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EP, AA AC
Posts: 4,268
More data points and good evening, 2 out of 3 SWU requests cleared at the gate this evening (April 10th) from MIA-GIG on AA 905 (where I am tying this reply from). My daughter and I cleared. My wife did not. Whooops. I offered her my seat as did my daughter.

Safe Travels
GTITAN is offline  
Old Apr 10, 2019, 11:00 pm
  #447  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EXP; Avis PC; Hertz PC; Marriott LT Gold; Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,133
Not sure if this is the thread to ask, but when TATLs have many open J seats a few days before departure, do they generally become available as Saver J seats or C seats?
HofstraJet is offline  
Old Apr 11, 2019, 4:22 am
  #448  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,483
Originally Posted by HofstraJet
Not sure if this is the thread to ask, but when TATLs have many open J seats a few days before departure, do they generally become available as Saver J seats or C seats?
Whether or not any sAAver business is released is completely hit or miss but definitely not something to be counted on. Seen it both ways.

But C space will for sure get released at some point, typically on a wide open flight the flood gates will open around T-36 to T-24 hrs before the flight.
GTITAN likes this.
JJeffrey is offline  
Old Apr 11, 2019, 9:58 am
  #449  
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Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: En Route
Programs: Many
Posts: 6,798
Originally Posted by fastflyer
PBI serves a high number of wealthy people -- between Palm Beach proper, Jupiter, Hobe Sound, Wellington, and Boca Raton, there are thousands of people for whom the segment price differential of, say, $400 for coach and $800 for domestic first, does not cause any burden. And because PBI is a second home and weekend resort market, many of these people travel by air.

You can either fly out of FLL, or do a connection via PHL, DCA, or CLT -- those flights tend to have more F availability IMHO than the LGA nonstop and the DFW and ORD flights.

Again, in my experience, DCA has the easiest shot at e-sticker upgrades out of PBI.
As I am one of those people flying to a vacation home near PBI, going to FLL doesn't make much sense for me sadly haha. On my next flight down I am connecting through PHL, but it looks to be sold out as well. I can't drop the companion I'd rather fly in the back with her than up front alone . Am I remembering it wrong, or did LGA-PBI used to be served by a mainline A320? Maybe 2-3 years ago. Buying F takes all the fun out of it, what's the point of being EXP if not to buy coach and fly F!
GetSetJetSet is offline  
Old Apr 11, 2019, 12:42 pm
  #450  
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Palm Beach/ New England
Programs: AA EXP 3MM, DL GM, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 4,382
Originally Posted by GetSetJetSet
As I am one of those people flying to a vacation home near PBI, going to FLL doesn't make much sense for me sadly haha. On my next flight down I am connecting through PHL, but it looks to be sold out as well. I can't drop the companion I'd rather fly in the back with her than up front alone . Am I remembering it wrong, or did LGA-PBI used to be served by a mainline A320? Maybe 2-3 years ago. Buying F takes all the fun out of it, what's the point of being EXP if not to buy coach and fly F!
This reminded me that another lever is to pick your routing based on the assigned equipment. The jungle jets have the best proportion of seats in F versus seats in coach, then the 737, then the 321. The 319 is the worst. Even with all of the competition from F purchases, I am nevertheless clearing around 60% of requested e-500 stickers out of PBI. I run more like 80% out of other airports. EXP with 20k annual spend.
fastflyer is offline  


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