Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
Then, by
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
- Booking class
- Time of request
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)
#271
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,483
If your trip is this coming weekend and both flights are J7, then I'd say you have a decent chance.
#272
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: FL, USA
Programs: AA Plat, Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Diamond, IHG Plat, Marriot Gold
Posts: 1,666
This kind of question is impossible to answer without more details. What are the dates of your flights? What is the equipment? How do the coach and business loads look now? etc. etc. etc.
If your trip is this coming weekend and both flights are J7, then I'd say you have a decent chance.
If your trip is this coming weekend and both flights are J7, then I'd say you have a decent chance.
#273
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AA EXP; 1W Emerald; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold; UA dirt
Posts: 7,816
Love it when a domestic trip has 9 open in F (based on seat map) but no upgrading going in 25 hours prior to departure. You can book this flight in F class - no problem (they don't even have a flag saying "# seats left").
#274
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: United Premier Platinum
Posts: 638
Would I have better chances of clearing an SWU to LHR by booking ORD to LHR on a 789, or JFK to LHR on a 77W?
The departure would be midweek in May, and I am EXP. Obviously the 77W has more J seats than a 789 by about a factor of 2, but if the paid J demand out of JFK is that much higher, I’d still consider ORD.
FWIW, PHL, CLT, and RDU are also options, but their J cabins already seem quite full compared to ORD and JFK.
The departure would be midweek in May, and I am EXP. Obviously the 77W has more J seats than a 789 by about a factor of 2, but if the paid J demand out of JFK is that much higher, I’d still consider ORD.
FWIW, PHL, CLT, and RDU are also options, but their J cabins already seem quite full compared to ORD and JFK.
#276
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,483
Single data point, but I flew a MIA-GCM r/t last year in late May and didn't clear either way (319 both ways).
#277
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,483
Would I have better chances of clearing an SWU to LHR by booking ORD to LHR on a 789, or JFK to LHR on a 77W?
The departure would be midweek in May, and I am EXP. Obviously the 77W has more J seats than a 789 by about a factor of 2, but if the paid J demand out of JFK is that much higher, I’d still consider ORD.
FWIW, PHL, CLT, and RDU are also options, but their J cabins already seem quite full compared to ORD and JFK.
The departure would be midweek in May, and I am EXP. Obviously the 77W has more J seats than a 789 by about a factor of 2, but if the paid J demand out of JFK is that much higher, I’d still consider ORD.
FWIW, PHL, CLT, and RDU are also options, but their J cabins already seem quite full compared to ORD and JFK.
JFK-LHR has never been a difficult upgrade, there is so much capacity between AA and BA that paid demand tends to be spread out.
Same for ORD-LHR, although all else being equal I would probably try to avoid the first evening ORD-LHR flight (~5pm), IME that one tends to fill up first.
#278
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: FL, USA
Programs: AA Plat, Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Diamond, IHG Plat, Marriot Gold
Posts: 1,666
GCM isn't notoriously harder to clear than other Caribbean routes, or anything like that, the problem is that a majority of the MIA-GCM schedule has gone 319, which is hard to clear on any route with only 8 seats up front. If you can find a 738 flight you will definitely help your chances, but personally on a flight as short as MIA-GCM I'd just pick the best schedule and go with it.
Single data point, but I flew a MIA-GCM r/t last year in late May and didn't clear either way (319 both ways).
Single data point, but I flew a MIA-GCM r/t last year in late May and didn't clear either way (319 both ways).
#279
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: United Premier Platinum
Posts: 638
Neither ORD or JFK will be materially harder or easier to clear than the other. If by midweek you mean a Tues or Wed then you shouldn't have any trouble clearing on either, Thurs can be a bit tougher but still not too bad (same goes for pretty much every longhaul flight in AA's system).
JFK-LHR has never been a difficult upgrade, there is so much capacity between AA and BA that paid demand tends to be spread out.
Same for ORD-LHR, although all else being equal I would probably try to avoid the first evening ORD-LHR flight (~5pm), IME that one tends to fill up first.
JFK-LHR has never been a difficult upgrade, there is so much capacity between AA and BA that paid demand tends to be spread out.
Same for ORD-LHR, although all else being equal I would probably try to avoid the first evening ORD-LHR flight (~5pm), IME that one tends to fill up first.
#280
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Thanks! For the return, is DFW materially harder than JFK/ORD? On the Tuesday I’m looking at for coming back only DFW has the 77W, and even with it being quite full that plane has more empty seats than any other at the moment. Trying to balance the benefits of that huge J cabin with the issue of a large number of elites being concentrated onto just a few flights to DFW per day.
I have never missed an SWU on DFW-LHR or LHR-DFW. I've flown on every day of the week, and various times (though never on the first DFW-LHR (20/50)). I find that the first LHR-DFW flight (around 9am) is usually pretty easy to clear. The last flight of the day has been tougher lately... as I've been upgraded on that one either on the plane or within 4 hours of departure.
#281
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: LAS/DXB
Programs: LH HON
Posts: 1,193
FWIW:
Type of Upgrade shown on my PNR has changed from Systemwide Upgrade to Milage Award. Apparently the phone rep has mistakenly removed my SWU when updating the payment terms for LHR departure tax. Just called to change it back. Not sure if this is a one time thing or system bug.
Type of Upgrade shown on my PNR has changed from Systemwide Upgrade to Milage Award. Apparently the phone rep has mistakenly removed my SWU when updating the payment terms for LHR departure tax. Just called to change it back. Not sure if this is a one time thing or system bug.
#282
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Denver, CO
Programs: AA EXP, IHG Spire Elite
Posts: 72
Chances for the following mileage/copay upgrade? Put in request today for mileage/copay upgrade wait list as there are 2 seats showing open and 1 blocked in biz on Expert Flyer (just open on seat map, not available for upgrade award yet) for the A330 with 20 biz seats, premium economy and economy cabin (with some Main Cabin Extra seating in economy). More details below.
Status Details:
Exec Plat just shy of $20k rolling 12-month EQDs. Currently approaching 50,000 EQM already for this year.
Flight Details:
PHL-MUC, 3/7/19 (evening flight). AA metal, Plane type 332 (Airbus 330). Main Cabin Extra (not PE, but economy), booking code N.
As stated above, I requested mileage upgrade with $350 copay and ExP desk said there were three seats, but the blocked is probably a crew rest hold that could be opened given this is only an 8-hour flight. Said she can't tell me more than that I'm the only one that's requested mileage or SW upgrade. Not using SWUs as I only have two left and am saving those for return flight upgrade wait list from Rome in April for wife and I.
Just curious if I should have just seen if AA upgraded me for "free" either before or at desk due to status and open seats, or is using miles and cash the best option for getting bumped. I've heard that sometimes they'll just give the last couple of business class seats to CK or EXP during pre-boarding, but then again sometimes they'll opt to give those to miles/copay because at least they're getting something $$ for that vs. just handing them to EXPs/CKs for nothing.
Thanks in advance.
Status Details:
Exec Plat just shy of $20k rolling 12-month EQDs. Currently approaching 50,000 EQM already for this year.
Flight Details:
PHL-MUC, 3/7/19 (evening flight). AA metal, Plane type 332 (Airbus 330). Main Cabin Extra (not PE, but economy), booking code N.
As stated above, I requested mileage upgrade with $350 copay and ExP desk said there were three seats, but the blocked is probably a crew rest hold that could be opened given this is only an 8-hour flight. Said she can't tell me more than that I'm the only one that's requested mileage or SW upgrade. Not using SWUs as I only have two left and am saving those for return flight upgrade wait list from Rome in April for wife and I.
Just curious if I should have just seen if AA upgraded me for "free" either before or at desk due to status and open seats, or is using miles and cash the best option for getting bumped. I've heard that sometimes they'll just give the last couple of business class seats to CK or EXP during pre-boarding, but then again sometimes they'll opt to give those to miles/copay because at least they're getting something $$ for that vs. just handing them to EXPs/CKs for nothing.
Thanks in advance.
#283
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Just curious if I should have just seen if AA upgraded me for "free" either before or at desk due to status and open seats, or is using miles and cash the best option for getting bumped. I've heard that sometimes they'll just give the last couple of business class seats to CK or EXP during pre-boarding, but then again sometimes they'll opt to give those to miles/copay because at least they're getting something $$ for that vs. just handing them to EXPs/CKs for nothing.
I would keep your Miles+Copay request to upgrade.
#284
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Denver, CO
Programs: AA EXP, IHG Spire Elite
Posts: 72
When do the mileage/copay requests usually get processed? Within a certain time prior to the flight, at or after check-in (T-24 hours), or at the gate? Can't recall a time I've used miles to upgrade for overseas flights via a wait list as I've always had 500-mile tickets for domestic (or complimentary domestic), or done the $550 cash offer at check in.
#285
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: United Premier Platinum
Posts: 638
I'm not sure what your rolling EQD is, but mine has been around $20K the past couple years.
I have never missed an SWU on DFW-LHR or LHR-DFW. I've flown on every day of the week, and various times (though never on the first DFW-LHR (20/50)). I find that the first LHR-DFW flight (around 9am) is usually pretty easy to clear. The last flight of the day has been tougher lately... as I've been upgraded on that one either on the plane or within 4 hours of departure.
I have never missed an SWU on DFW-LHR or LHR-DFW. I've flown on every day of the week, and various times (though never on the first DFW-LHR (20/50)). I find that the first LHR-DFW flight (around 9am) is usually pretty easy to clear. The last flight of the day has been tougher lately... as I've been upgraded on that one either on the plane or within 4 hours of departure.
Your experience reassures me somewhat though. Given that my target date is a Tuesday and that the early LHR-DFW on that day is a 77W, I’ll probably go ahead with booking the flight and hope for the best. Other options may be through hubs with fewer elites, but they’re also on planes with significantly smaller J cabins.
For 77W, does AA process gate upgrades in an order so that those upgrading from J to F have their old J seats given to Y/P waitlistees?