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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Mar 18, 2019, 12:03 pm
  #331  
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Live: IWI; Work: DCA/Everywhere; Play: LAS/SJU/MLE
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Ambassador/LTP, Nat'l Exec Elite, LEYE Gold
Posts: 6,673
AA78 (LHR-DFW) today had an equipment swap from 772 to 77W -- with the result that 3 of my family members (one AA gold, two non-status) cleared their mileage/co-pay upgrades from Y to J because of the larger J cabin size (the flight had previously been J0Y0 for at least a week).... then (when I received the EF alert) I saw that the F cabin was being used for J as well, so I was able to call AA and get them seated in 1A/D/G. I told them to expect business class service -- but was pleasantly surprised to receive pics of them in their seats with all the F amenities (mattress pad, etc.) ^. They, of course, think I have magical powers.
platbrownguy is offline  
Old Mar 19, 2019, 6:43 am
  #332  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EXP; Avis PC; Hertz PC; Marriott LT Gold; Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,133
Originally Posted by Zacnlinc
At least you got an alert.... Three weeks ago I didn't get one, was upgraded... Yesterday and early AM today I didn't get one... But today (1 hrs ago or so) I was upgraded. Seems to be hit or miss. But I agree, It's been nice having the subscription.

In fact, I've expensed it with work since now several in the office think I'm the travel agent for them.. Quietly the expense has been approved... Also noted that requests for me to check on things have quieted down a bit too.. LOL
When an upgrade clears, you often (usually?) won’t get an alert since EF runs the query for your alert on a periodic basis. In between queries the C space opened and your upgrade cleared, thus there was no C space available during the next query. Normal behavior. When EF pays for itself is the post above yours where C space opens but the system does not process the upgrade, leaving availability which you are alerted to.
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HofstraJet is offline  
Old Mar 19, 2019, 6:45 am
  #333  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EXP; Avis PC; Hertz PC; Marriott LT Gold; Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,133
Delete - fat thumbs.
HofstraJet is offline  
Old Mar 19, 2019, 9:45 am
  #334  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
I've been noticing a change in upgrade behavior lately, and I wonder if anyone else has seen this.

Most of my itineraries involve one regional flight and one mainline. I usually fly in/out of COU, through either DFW or ORD, and then on to a significant airport; this year it's been LAX/SFO/SEA mostly. Up until recently, upgrades on my COU-hub regional flights tended to clear quickly, but the mainline flights often cleared much later, frequently at the gate (or not at all of course). This all seemed normal to me...the COU flights usually have plenty of J and not many elites, whereas the bigger flights tended to be tighter.

The strange thing is that this year (approximately, dunno exactly when it started) the upgrades seem to be happening backwards. For example, my SEA-DFW-COU trip on Friday was J7 for both flights when I booked...the SEA-DFW leg cleared right at T-100, but the DFW-COU part didn't clear until something like T-12 (overnight, so hard to say exactly) even though it was still J7 right up until they cleared 6 people (leaving one presumably ridiculously priced J seat for sale).

That's just one instance; I've noticed that happened several times within the last couple months. Have they somehow tweaked the system for regionals? I guess I don't really care that much...I basically never fail to get an upgrade on those COU flights. Just curious really.
HLCinCOU is offline  
Old Mar 19, 2019, 12:41 pm
  #335  
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 2
Looking for some input and experience. Flying LAX to SYD on AA in 3 weeks. I am EXP with about 20k in spend last year and have requested 4 SWU for this flight. Currently the flight is showing 8 available Business class seats with an additional one blocked. Seems like most people say chances of upgrading on this flight are slim to none but was curious if anyone has experience with this many SWUs clearing on this flight? If they clear, how long before the flight have people experienced multiple SWUs clearing?
bekkyboop is offline  
Old Mar 19, 2019, 1:33 pm
  #336  
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: PHL
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum, Hilton HHonors Diamond
Posts: 1,204
Dumb question but I'm not 100% clear on Miles & Copay awards on AA.

I'm in Premium but that doesn't really seem to come into play.

ExpertFlyer shows:
PHL-ORD (C3)
ORD-HNL (C0)

and request a miles & copay upgrade, what happens if the PHL-ORD has C space but ORD-HNL does not? Does it process the 15K miles and $175 or wait until both legs can clear? Thanks!

Last edited by airb330; Mar 19, 2019 at 1:44 pm
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Old Mar 19, 2019, 1:41 pm
  #337  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,494
Originally Posted by bekkyboop
Looking for some input and experience. Flying LAX to SYD on AA in 3 weeks. I am EXP with about 20k in spend last year and have requested 4 SWU for this flight. Currently the flight is showing 8 available Business class seats with an additional one blocked. Seems like most people say chances of upgrading on this flight are slim to none but was curious if anyone has experience with this many SWUs clearing on this flight? If they clear, how long before the flight have people experienced multiple SWUs clearing?
Welcome to FT. For a LAX-SYD flight that is 3 weeks away with only 8 left open in business, I wouldn't expect to see any upgrade space opening up till around 24-48 hours before the flight. This is pretty standard behavior for most all AA longhaul flights.
JJeffrey is online now  
Old Mar 19, 2019, 1:48 pm
  #338  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,494
Originally Posted by airb330
Dumb question but I'm not 100% clear on Miles & Copay awards on AA.

If I have:

PHL-ORD (3 in C)
ORD-HNL (0 in C)

and request a miles & copay upgrade, what happens if the PHL-ORD has C space but ORD-HNL does not? Does it process the 15K miles and $175 or wait until both legs can clear? Thanks!
When you call AA to request the upgrade, you have to instruct the agent how you want to do it, as it can go both ways. Most good agents will default to waitlisting only the long-haul segment, as that's what most people want, however it's always good to double check.

So in the above scenario, you could tell the agent to just waitlist the ORD-HNL for the miles/copay. If/when ORD-HNL clears, you can then call and upgrade the PHL-ORD as part of the same upgrade if it's still available.

Alternatively, if you told the agent to process the upgrade now for whatever is available, you would clear the PHL-ORD and be charged the 15k +$175, and be waitlisted for the ORD-HNL. Of course the big risk here, and why most people don't do this, is that if ORD-HNL never opens up then you've just wasted 15k miles and $175 to upgrade PHL-ORD.
JJeffrey is online now  
Old Mar 19, 2019, 9:31 pm
  #339  
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: San Diego
Programs: Plat Pro AAdvantage, but defected to BAEC
Posts: 1,222
Originally Posted by bekkyboop
Looking for some input and experience. Flying LAX to SYD on AA in 3 weeks. I am EXP with about 20k in spend last year and have requested 4 SWU for this flight. Currently the flight is showing 8 available Business class seats with an additional one blocked. Seems like most people say chances of upgrading on this flight are slim to none but was curious if anyone has experience with this many SWUs clearing on this flight? If they clear, how long before the flight have people experienced multiple SWUs clearing?
the blocked seat will stay blocked as I believe that it is used for crew rest purposes. I did a LAX-SYD round trip last April and by the time I flew, there was 1 gate upgrade on the outbound and 3 at the gate on the return. I had upfared on the outbound when I saw how busy the cabin was getting and my wife and I were 4 and 5 on the list for the return.
Reetmafreen is offline  
Old Mar 19, 2019, 11:00 pm
  #340  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: PHL (kinda, no airport is really close)
Programs: AA Exp, but not sure for how long. Enterprise Platinum woo-hoo!
Posts: 4,551
Puzzled a bit.

I made the effort to make PPro this year mainly for upgrades on my monthly LAS-PHL redeye (usually Friday but occasionally Thursday). I cleared in both January and February, and both times there were still F seats available after my upgrade. Usual equipment is A321 and the usual flight number is 589.

I booked for this week in January, flight number was 1876 and seat was 5D, showing "Food available for purchase" so obviously the seat map contemplated 4 rows of F. However, the equipment now shows 763. Seems there's a flight from San Juan to Philly, which becomes a nonstop to Vegas, and turns around to go back to Philly.

But oddly, with 28 F seats the 763, there are only 2 remaining. I haven't been upgraded (it's now T-49) and I don't expect to be.

Right now the price is $597 for Y and $720 for F. Yes, with this small a price difference, paying extra for the lie-flats is a no-brainer. But how many people waited this long to book, and how many would even bother to look and see that F means J-lie flat.

Maybe I'm just venting, but I'm not sure why in the analogous situation 3 weeks ago (my last eastbound trip) at this point there were 9 F seats filled, and this time there are 26.
redtop43 is offline  
Old Mar 20, 2019, 12:08 am
  #341  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Originally Posted by redtop43
Puzzled a bit.

I made the effort to make PPro this year mainly for upgrades on my monthly LAS-PHL redeye (usually Friday but occasionally Thursday). I cleared in both January and February, and both times there were still F seats available after my upgrade. Usual equipment is A321 and the usual flight number is 589.

I booked for this week in January, flight number was 1876 and seat was 5D, showing "Food available for purchase" so obviously the seat map contemplated 4 rows of F. However, the equipment now shows 763. Seems there's a flight from San Juan to Philly, which becomes a nonstop to Vegas, and turns around to go back to Philly.

But oddly, with 28 F seats the 763, there are only 2 remaining. I haven't been upgraded (it's now T-49) and I don't expect to be.

Right now the price is $597 for Y and $720 for F. Yes, with this small a price difference, paying extra for the lie-flats is a no-brainer. But how many people waited this long to book, and how many would even bother to look and see that F means J-lie flat.

Maybe I'm just venting, but I'm not sure why in the analogous situation 3 weeks ago (my last eastbound trip) at this point there were 9 F seats filled, and this time there are 26.
There might be something going on in Vegas this week (like a huge convention) that might be affecting demand.
flyingeph12 is offline  
Old Mar 20, 2019, 1:56 am
  #342  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Programs: AAdvantage
Posts: 13
First time using upgrade with miles.

Flying on AA10 (LAX-JFK red eye) in ~20 hours. ExpertFlyer is showing C0 and there are currently two unoccupied seats in business.

Any hope of clearing an Y to J upgrade as an AA Platinum?
matthew_brown is offline  
Old Mar 20, 2019, 2:01 am
  #343  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: RDU
Posts: 2,264
Originally Posted by matthew_brown
First time using upgrade with miles.

Flying on AA10 (LAX-JFK red eye) in ~20 hours. ExpertFlyer is showing C0 and there are currently two unoccupied seats in business.

Any hope of clearing an Y to J upgrade as an AA Platinum?
There's always hope but would seem (highly) unlikely as it's showing J1 and there are several elite tiers ahead of you.
dave_261 is offline  
Old Mar 20, 2019, 2:28 am
  #344  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Programs: AAdvantage
Posts: 13
Originally Posted by dave_261
There's always hope but would seem (highly) unlikely as it's showing J1 and there are several elite tiers ahead of you.
Figured as much. Thanks for the info!

Do you know at what point AA would pull back that J1 availability and use it to clear upgrades? At the gate?
matthew_brown is offline  
Old Mar 20, 2019, 4:51 am
  #345  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,494
Originally Posted by matthew_brown
Figured as much. Thanks for the info!

Do you know at what point AA would pull back that J1 availability and use it to clear upgrades? At the gate?
Pretty much yea, if it stays J1 then I would expect C space to appear no sooner than ~4 hrs before the flight right up to the gate.
JJeffrey is online now  


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