Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
Then, by
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
- Booking class
- Time of request
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)
Dec 3, 2019, 8:43 am
#1081
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Valley of the Sun, AZ, USA
Programs: AA Dirt, HHonors Silver
Posts: 495
I'd like your guesses as to odds here. On AA194 PHX-LHR on 12/8. I am in for a mileage only upgrade W->J. Exp flyer shows J7 and seat map shows 10 empty in J.
What do you think my odds as a lowly Gold?
Seems decent to me at this point, but who knows?
What do you think my odds as a lowly Gold?
Seems decent to me at this point, but who knows?
Dec 5, 2019, 11:18 pm
#1082
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Austin, Texas, USA
Programs: AA Platinum Pro, Hilton Silver, Marriott Titanium Elite, AS MVP Gold 75K
Posts: 130
I'm flying DFW-BUF on AA3370 on 12/8. There are 7 unassigned F seats, but only 1 for sale (D fare class) and Y is not available. Am I correct in thinking that the upgrade is hung up due to the flight being overbooked in Y? I am PPro with ~$11k rolling EQD. I do not have access to EF. Thanks!
Dec 6, 2019, 3:23 am
#1083
Suspended
Join Date: May 2013
Location: NYC
Programs: DL Diamond, AAdvantage EXP, Hyatt Explorist, HHonors Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 7,344
I continue to have amazing UPG success out of EWR instead of LGA....UPGs even clearing before the 100 window and def not a CK.
Dec 6, 2019, 5:35 am
#1084
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,498
I'm flying DFW-BUF on AA3370 on 12/8. There are 7 unassigned F seats, but only 1 for sale (D fare class) and Y is not available. Am I correct in thinking that the upgrade is hung up due to the flight being overbooked in Y? I am PPro with ~$11k rolling EQD. I do not have access to EF. Thanks!
Dec 6, 2019, 7:01 am
#1085
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,978
Dec 6, 2019, 7:08 am
#1086
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,978
IME upgrades to and from EWR have always been easier than LGA and probably even JFK. Not sure it makes up for everything else you need to deal with when using that airport.
Dec 6, 2019, 7:17 am
#1087
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,498
This is why these situations typically don't get sorted until the day of departure, when a human can process upgrades and move people around accordingly.
Dec 6, 2019, 10:07 am
#1088
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,978
If coach is oversold and AA starts upgrading people days/weeks out, then that frees up more economy space which will go back into inventory and most likely get sold resulting in an even more oversold situation than you had before.
This is why these situations typically don't get sorted until the day of departure, when a human can process upgrades and move people around accordingly.
This is why these situations typically don't get sorted until the day of departure, when a human can process upgrades and move people around accordingly.
Dec 6, 2019, 10:20 am
#1089
Suspended
Join Date: May 2013
Location: NYC
Programs: DL Diamond, AAdvantage EXP, Hyatt Explorist, HHonors Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 7,344
EWR actually is easy especially with the LGA construction issues and traffic. I’m usually going against the traffic trends though....Monday morning out of the city when everyone is coming in etc....for a 6am flight you can be there in 20-25 mins from SoHo.
Dec 6, 2019, 11:30 am
#1090
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,498
Agree. We can file this under another occurrence of "the end result will not bring AA any additional revenue, so AA is not going to spend money/time/manpower to update it"...
Dec 6, 2019, 8:08 pm
#1091
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: San Diego
Programs: Plat Pro AAdvantage, but defected to BAEC
Posts: 1,222
I tend to also take a look at the MCE seats and see how many are taken. Those will be your main competition for upgrades. If those are all full, then I would be prepared to sit in Y. The downside to this approach is that you never know how many folks in PE are also on the upgrade list.
Dec 7, 2019, 4:32 pm
#1092
Join Date: Dec 2019
Programs: AA
Posts: 1
AA281 Upgrade Chances
I am flying out on AA281 on 12/12/19 on Premium Economy, requested to upgrade to economy, but within last week, J went down from J11 to J4, W7 and Y5, with seat map showing 5 open Business seats. What's my chances of getting upgraded?
Or if I can cancel my W seat on 12/12, paying 250 cancellation fee, and rebook flight on 12/13 economy which now showing J7 with 11 open seat on seat map, but then I need to pay 350 copay to upgrade, and of course earn less miles for flying economy. Should I do this to get a better chance of upgrade?
Or if I can cancel my W seat on 12/12, paying 250 cancellation fee, and rebook flight on 12/13 economy which now showing J7 with 11 open seat on seat map, but then I need to pay 350 copay to upgrade, and of course earn less miles for flying economy. Should I do this to get a better chance of upgrade?
Dec 7, 2019, 7:14 pm
#1093
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Agreed. From the west side of Manhattan, EWR is actually probably the easiest of the three NYC airports to deal with in my opinion. EWR flights are certainly much easier to upgrade than LGA or JFK flights. Now, whenever I fly AA out of NYC, I appreciate the usually lower fares out of EWR, and I am particularly fond of the admirals club at EWR for some reason, even though I would get Flagship Lounge access if flying out of JFK.
Dec 7, 2019, 7:22 pm
#1094
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,978
I am flying out on AA281 on 12/12/19 on Premium Economy, requested to upgrade to economy, but within last week, J went down from J11 to J4, W7 and Y5, with seat map showing 5 open Business seats. What's my chances of getting upgraded?
Or if I can cancel my W seat on 12/12, paying 250 cancellation fee, and rebook flight on 12/13 economy which now showing J7 with 11 open seat on seat map, but then I need to pay 350 copay to upgrade, and of course earn less miles for flying economy. Should I do this to get a better chance of upgrade?
Or if I can cancel my W seat on 12/12, paying 250 cancellation fee, and rebook flight on 12/13 economy which now showing J7 with 11 open seat on seat map, but then I need to pay 350 copay to upgrade, and of course earn less miles for flying economy. Should I do this to get a better chance of upgrade?
Based on the info available I don't think it makes sense to switch. Y is very full on the 13th, so you if you do not get the upgrade you will have paid a lot of money for a much less comfortable experience.
Dec 8, 2019, 3:41 am
#1095
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Valley of the Sun, AZ, USA
Programs: AA Dirt, HHonors Silver
Posts: 495
I tend to also take a look at the MCE seats and see how many are taken. Those will be your main competition for upgrades. If those are all full, then I would be prepared to sit in Y. The downside to this approach is that you never know how many folks in PE are also on the upgrade list.