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2016 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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2016 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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Old Feb 23, 2016, 11:02 am
  #136  
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 522
Hello

I am EXP and flying on a paid Economy ticket LAX-JFK 6am this Friday on a 3 cabin A321T

Right now there are at least 7 F seats for sale and 7 J seats for sale.

I always cash in 15k miles and the $75 co pay to upgrade to J, but I'm gonna swing it this time and hope a comp upgrade clears.

As an EXP on a 6am flight Friday LAX-JFK - what do you think my chances are?

And what is the upgrade list order? Do they clear Golds and Silvers using miles and co-pay before they clear EXP complimentary upgrade? In other words is the order

EXP Instruments
Gold Instruments
Silver Instruments
EXP Complimentary

Or does EXP Complimentary sit above the Gold & Silver miles / co-pay?

Thanks
TIMOS is offline  
Old Feb 23, 2016, 12:20 pm
  #137  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Programs: AA PLT, SPG Gold
Posts: 2,405
Can I just say - it's still unbelievable to me that AA will release C space without clearing the waitlist. When I asked the agent she replied flat out "I have no idea. I don't know how that works. But I can see the space so I can process you." In this case it may have worked in our favor. But W. T. F.

Not only that, but I saw it before EF ever alerted me. A lot of good that $9.99 a month is doing me (well I suppose EF is the only way to see C space anyway but whatevs!). Not only that, but AA clearly has the capability to clear people off the waitlist without releasing C, at least from what I could tell. It's like they choose who to clear without making C available publicly and once that's done with it's a free-for-all. Extremely strange process IYAM. So bottom line is if you want an upgrade, not only set EF alerts but check EF like an OCD maniac every 20 minutes starting at T-72 and you have a shot.

Perhaps JonNYC has some insight?
no1cub17 is offline  
Old Feb 23, 2016, 2:25 pm
  #138  
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: SNA
Posts: 18,240
In the last year this is what has happened with us every time-

I get the alert from EF that C space is open

I log in to AA and the reservation is unviewable. That means they have already started processing the upgrade. If its close in, I call to have them manually finish the ticketing process. Otherwise I let it run its course.

It has been quite awhile since I've seen C space open up and they hadn't already started to process our upgrades. For various status passengers.
VickiSoCal is offline  
Old Feb 23, 2016, 2:27 pm
  #139  
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Posts: 18,240
Originally Posted by TIMOS
Hello

I am EXP and flying on a paid Economy ticket LAX-JFK 6am this Friday on a 3 cabin A321T

Right now there are at least 7 F seats for sale and 7 J seats for sale.

I always cash in 15k miles and the $75 co pay to upgrade to J, but I'm gonna swing it this time and hope a comp upgrade clears.

As an EXP on a 6am flight Friday LAX-JFK - what do you think my chances are?

And what is the upgrade list order? Do they clear Golds and Silvers using miles and co-pay before they clear EXP complimentary upgrade? In other words is the order

EXP Instruments
Gold Instruments
Silver Instruments
EXP Complimentary

Or does EXP Complimentary sit above the Gold & Silver miles / co-pay?

Thanks
If C inventory opens up its:

EXP SWU/miles plus copay
Plat SWU/miles plus copay
Gold SWU/miles plus copay

If X opens up its

EXP comp
Plat stickers
Gold stickers
VickiSoCal is offline  
Old Feb 23, 2016, 3:25 pm
  #140  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 106
I am EXP flying LGA - MIA AA 1366 today 2/23/16.

Booked flight at 3pm, to have it delayed almost instantly (passenger issue at origin airport which doesn't sound good - hope they're ok).

Anyway - am 4th on the upgrade list.

Is anyone able to see how many seats remain in F?

Wasn't too fussed before as it isn't such a long flight but now that the flight is delayed I wouldn't mind some dinner! :-)
wwrjb is offline  
Old Feb 23, 2016, 6:01 pm
  #141  
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: San Diego, CA
Programs: AA EXP 2MM
Posts: 24
Originally Posted by VickiSoCal
In the last year this is what has happened with us every time-

I get the alert from EF that C space is open

I log in to AA and the reservation is unviewable. That means they have already started processing the upgrade. If its close in, I call to have them manually finish the ticketing process. Otherwise I let it run its course.

It has been quite awhile since I've seen C space open up and they hadn't already started to process our upgrades. For various status passengers.
The same thing happened to me on two A spaces opening up to move from J to F on an LAX-LHR itinerary. I saw the inventory, AA.com wouldn't let me view the reservation, and when I called the EXP desk the agent said the upgrade had gone through and asked me for seat assignment preferences.

After the phone call, former A2 now showed as A0.
I_Claudius is offline  
Old Feb 23, 2016, 6:04 pm
  #142  
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: San Diego, CA
Programs: AA EXP 2MM
Posts: 24
Originally Posted by VickiSoCal
If C inventory opens up its:

EXP SWU/miles plus copay
Plat SWU/miles plus copay
Gold SWU/miles plus copay

If X opens up its

EXP comp
Plat stickers
Gold stickers
Does using SWU have priority over miles plus copay within an elite tier?
I_Claudius is offline  
Old Feb 24, 2016, 12:40 pm
  #143  
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Originally Posted by I_Claudius
Does using SWU have priority over miles plus copay within an elite tier?
No. They should be the same. It has been reported that some gate agents don't follow this. But when still controlled by the computerized waitlist, it is all the same within a tier, by request date.
VickiSoCal is offline  
Old Feb 24, 2016, 2:24 pm
  #144  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,673
Originally Posted by no1cub17
Can I just say - it's still unbelievable to me that AA will release C space without clearing the waitlist. When I asked the agent she replied flat out "I have no idea. I don't know how that works. But I can see the space so I can process you." In this case it may have worked in our favor. But W. T. F.
My experience is that C can open up without my upgrade processing and my upgrade can get processed without C opening up. My interpretation of this is that there are (at least) two different processes running - some machine-based and some human-based.

For example, imagine a machine-based routine that makes decisions to open up C inventory and a second machine-based routine (a sweep) that (maybe every 12 hours) checks if there is C inventory and if there is a waitlist still, and if there is it initiatives the process. Then, in parallel imagine there is a person whose job is to process those upgrades started by the machine - maybe this person sometimes gets to the bottom of the list with no more upgrades to ticket, and then they switch to look at upcoming flights for ones where the waitlist is short (maybe 1-2 people) and the availability is J7. This person then tickets the upgrades, without ever worrying about C inventory.

This may not be how it really works, but it is my mental model that is simple and also explains all the experiences I have had.
SeattleDavid is offline  
Old Feb 24, 2016, 2:30 pm
  #145  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Houston
Programs: DL DM/2MM, UA Gold/1MM, AS MVP 100K, BA Gold, TK Elite
Posts: 1,425
(I agree with SeattleDavid.. both have happened to me)

So this is a first... I'm traveling XXX-DFW-HKG and HKG-DFW-XXX in mid March and I got an alert from EF that both flights opened up C space and when I went to check my AA reservation, they were already upgraded (including the domestic segments).

I've flown the HKG leg 8 times and it's never opened up more than 72 (and usually 48) hours before departure.

Also... this is the first time that I had requested an upgrade and I was automatically upgraded without getting a "C" availability alert from EF and having to call the AA line to process the upgrade manually. Maybe this is an improvement!?!

Last edited by TechMarauder; Feb 24, 2016 at 2:37 pm
TechMarauder is offline  
Old Feb 24, 2016, 4:34 pm
  #146  
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: SNA
Posts: 18,240
Originally Posted by TechMarauder
Also... this is the first time that I had requested an upgrade and I was automatically upgraded without getting a "C" availability alert from EF and having to call the AA line to process the upgrade manually. Maybe this is an improvement!?!
Yep, this is what has been happening here for a little while now. Very nice not to worry about people jumping the queue.
VickiSoCal is offline  
Old Feb 25, 2016, 5:31 am
  #147  
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Programs: AA ex-EXP (buh-bye!), HH Gold, SPG Gold, UM Go Blue
Posts: 543
Originally Posted by VickiSoCal
Yep, this is what has been happening here for a little while now. Very nice not to worry about people jumping the queue.
I am having the opposite problem. For an upcoming DFW-HKG flight, I get an EF alert, and looking at EF it says there are 2 seats in C inventory. However, when I call AA (twice), they say there is nothing in C. And in any case, I have not been upgraded (request put in around June).

Is there some other method of jumping the queue or what is going on here?
Wollstonecraft is offline  
Old Feb 25, 2016, 8:04 am
  #148  
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Programs: AA ex-EXP (buh-bye!), HH Gold, SPG Gold, UM Go Blue
Posts: 543
..and now those 2 C seats are gone, at least according to EF. Any insight into what happened would be much appreciated from those of you who understand this process better than me, thank you!
Wollstonecraft is offline  
Old Feb 25, 2016, 9:21 am
  #149  
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Programs: AAdvantage - PLT Pro, United Premier PLT, HHonors - Diamond, National - Ex. Elite
Posts: 31
I am a Plat. level flyer. Missed Ex. Plat. by about 5K miles last year... probably the same this year.
Anyway, find the whole upgrade deal to be very simple. Historically on US Air? I was upgraded constantly. Now on AA? Rarely. Completely different world.

I do have some rules which seem to work for me. Going from CLT to LAX or SFO? Do NOT take the very early flights. If I am willing to depart at about 10:00am or later my odds increase dramatically. Returning from west coast? Expect to be about #16 on the upgrade list and get ready for a long uncomfortable flight.
DFW to TPA? Good odds. I'd say from my perspective, about 60/40 in favor of getting the upgrade. TPA to DFW? Not a snowballs chance. Can't tell you why.
CLT to MKE? about 85% chance.
CLT to MSP? Zero chance. ZERO.
CLT to ORD? Pick your times carefully and pretty good odds. Ditto TPA to ORD.
CLT to SEA? Yea right. In your dreams. Ditto PDX.
TPA to PHX? I seem to be doing pretty well. Both directions. At least 50/50.

Bottom line since I am not Ex. Plat., I just plan on no upgrades. Then every one I get is a bonus!
Airrage is offline  
Old Feb 25, 2016, 9:26 am
  #150  
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Posts: 18,240
Originally Posted by Airrage
I do have some rules which seem to work for me. Going from CLT to LAX or SFO? Do NOT take the very early flights. If I am willing to depart at about 10:00am or later my odds increase dramatically. Returning from west coast?

Snip

Bottom line since I am not Ex. Plat., I just plan on no upgrades. Then every one I get is a bonus!
Don't feel so bad. EXP Husband is flying LAX to CLT next week and every flight is F0 that day until 10 pm. I fully expect him to be in Y again.
VickiSoCal is offline  


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