2016 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)
#76
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: DCA
Programs: American AAdvantage EXP, World of Hyatt Explorist, Marriott Rewards Titanium, MGM Rewards Gold
Posts: 429
I asked this same question a while back and the answer I got was.... Unless you request an upgrade you aren't going to move forward unless you get an op-up situation... I don't even think the FAs have the authority to move you once the door closes... I think its fairly annoying, but I also understand...
#77
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: D/FW, TX
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 428
I understand where AA is coming from... But I agree with you that that it would give them a chance to do something most don't. For how (relatively) infrequently it would really happen I don't feel it would hurt the bottom line that much. I get not doing it for a Long-haul flight or a transcon... but for a flight that would ordinarily only require a couple stickers....
#78
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SLC
Programs: DL PM, Hilton/Marriott Gold
Posts: 971
Delta and United have unlimited domestic upgrades for their elites, no? I've never seen empty seats up front on delta (except for a few odd times around the holidays)
I think AA is trying to "protect" the product by making it a matter of policy that they don't comp upgrades to elites who didn't request one unless the GA needs Y seats. It certainly saves the FA the trouble of figuring who's the odd one out if there are 7 elites in Y and 6 open seats in F after the door closes.
I think AA is trying to "protect" the product by making it a matter of policy that they don't comp upgrades to elites who didn't request one unless the GA needs Y seats. It certainly saves the FA the trouble of figuring who's the odd one out if there are 7 elites in Y and 6 open seats in F after the door closes.
#79
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 28
Hello all,
I am flying AA56 MIA-LHR and have been on the SWU waitlist since August 2015. It's a 77W and I see there are 10 seats still open in Business, but American isn't selling anymore business class fares. Does that mean there are 10 people that have fares but not seat assignment?
TLDR: Does the upgrade look grim?
I should also specify this flight is for Feb 5 (so tomorrow)
I am flying AA56 MIA-LHR and have been on the SWU waitlist since August 2015. It's a 77W and I see there are 10 seats still open in Business, but American isn't selling anymore business class fares. Does that mean there are 10 people that have fares but not seat assignment?
TLDR: Does the upgrade look grim?
I should also specify this flight is for Feb 5 (so tomorrow)
Last edited by JY1024; Feb 4, 2016 at 12:36 pm Reason: merged consecutive posts
#80
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: SFO
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 5,270
Could be that economy is heavily oversold and they're holding those seats for upgrades?
#81
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: South Park, Metropolis
Programs: AA LT PLT 3MM, Hilton/Marriott/SPG/Club Carlson GLD, IHG PLT
Posts: 4,608
Per expertflyer, F1 P0 A0 J0 R0 I0 D0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 V7 G7 S7 N7 Q7 O7
seat map shows one seat open in first, 10 on business, & > 50 seats on coach. Not that this is an indication.
seat map shows one seat open in first, 10 on business, & > 50 seats on coach. Not that this is an indication.
#82
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 28
Based on assigned seats in economy, I don't think so. About 3/4 of economy is empty
#83
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 44,605
I would doubt that - I expect that AA would happily offload an economy passenger to sell a business class ticket from MIA-LHR. Also looking on EF, there is plenty of availability for economy purchase
I would think it more likely that there are passengers in business who have not selected seats
I would think it more likely that there are passengers in business who have not selected seats
#84
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 989
On expertflyer, it shows F1, J4, and lots of Y seats still being sold. With J4, I would guess there are still 3 seats available for sale in business class as I've seen airlines generally oversell premium cabins by 1, but thats just a guess. Depending on how high you are on the priority list, you may get upgraded some time between now and boarding. But another metric I use is how many main cabin extra seats are taken, and it looks like 24 have been assigned. While not all 24 are executive platinum members, it provides a rough estimate on what you are up against.
#87
If they are showing no J available, I am guessing that your upgrade outlook is very grim.
Possible reasons for 10 open seats and yet no J for sale:
1. Tickets purchased, but seats not assigned. You see this a lot more on BA than AA, but still happens on AA. This is most likely scenario. If you were #1 or #2 on upgrade list you still might make it on as people without seat assignments seem (IMHO) a little less likely to make a given flight. If it is really oversold as someone else said, forgetaboutit.
2. AA holding seats open due to potential equipment change. This happened to me a couple weeks ago. Was LAX-YYZ on A319 and it showed 4 F seats open on both outbound and return, but they were selling no F fares. Outbound, I it was an old A319 and I got upgraded into one of 4 seats, but on return aircraft was a new config A319 with 4 less 1st seats, thus the reason why they never tried to sell them. Given this (and all the reported 77W maintenance issues of late), there's a small chance they may be holding enough seats open to facilitate a switch to an old 777 if need be (difference between aircraft is 7 F/J seats). This would be ideal for you because it means there will be 10 upgrades available if they confirm 77W equip, but seems like a long shot to me as that aircraft would probably already be scheduled for your flight. if they do switch to an old 777 you have no chance.
Net, net if you are #1 or #2 on the no doubt very long upgrade list (which means you are an EXP that made this flight reservation awhile ago and are connecting) you will will have a slim chance to get upgraded at the gate if there are enough no shows and no equipment change, otherwise I would prepare yourself mentally for a trip in Y.
Possible reasons for 10 open seats and yet no J for sale:
1. Tickets purchased, but seats not assigned. You see this a lot more on BA than AA, but still happens on AA. This is most likely scenario. If you were #1 or #2 on upgrade list you still might make it on as people without seat assignments seem (IMHO) a little less likely to make a given flight. If it is really oversold as someone else said, forgetaboutit.
2. AA holding seats open due to potential equipment change. This happened to me a couple weeks ago. Was LAX-YYZ on A319 and it showed 4 F seats open on both outbound and return, but they were selling no F fares. Outbound, I it was an old A319 and I got upgraded into one of 4 seats, but on return aircraft was a new config A319 with 4 less 1st seats, thus the reason why they never tried to sell them. Given this (and all the reported 77W maintenance issues of late), there's a small chance they may be holding enough seats open to facilitate a switch to an old 777 if need be (difference between aircraft is 7 F/J seats). This would be ideal for you because it means there will be 10 upgrades available if they confirm 77W equip, but seems like a long shot to me as that aircraft would probably already be scheduled for your flight. if they do switch to an old 777 you have no chance.
Net, net if you are #1 or #2 on the no doubt very long upgrade list (which means you are an EXP that made this flight reservation awhile ago and are connecting) you will will have a slim chance to get upgraded at the gate if there are enough no shows and no equipment change, otherwise I would prepare yourself mentally for a trip in Y.
#88
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 44,605
Net, net if you are #1 or #2 on the no doubt very long upgrade list (which means you are an EXP that made this flight reservation awhile ago and are connecting) you will will have a slim chance to get upgraded at the gate if there are enough no shows and no equipment change, otherwise I would prepare yourself mentally for a trip in Y.
#89
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: California
Programs: AA EXP...couple hotels and cars too
Posts: 4,548