2016 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)
#181
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: SFO, SJC
Programs: AA - EXP 2MM+, Marriott PLT, UA, National Exec
Posts: 495
Depending on where you are connecting to, Dfw-Icn might be the best option to use 2 swu's, ~ 2 months out. It's 772, 3 class, and seems to have better upgrade chances.
Cheers.
Cheers.
Last edited by msv777; Mar 15, 2016 at 9:56 pm Reason: Typo
#182
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Tucson, AZ
Programs: AA Platinum, HIlton Gold
Posts: 191
I have done it several times. In my case it's usually a JFK-AUS segment after an international arrival. If availability got down to something like A3 I'd probably have them clear the domestic segment and continue to waitlist the overseas segment, especially if the overseas upgrade looked promising. If the overseas segment doesn't clear you would have "wasted" the SWU but in my view if I have just gotten off a long flight in Y I would be very happy to know that the remainder of my trip was up front.
It does depend on the length of the domestic segment. I would never do it on DFW-AUS.
It does depend on the length of the domestic segment. I would never do it on DFW-AUS.
#183
Suspended
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Tampa, FL
Programs: AA EXP; UA Silver; Marriott Platinum Premier; Hilton Gold; Hyatt Platinum; National Executive Elite
Posts: 156
I am a Plat. level flyer. Missed Ex. Plat. by about 5K miles last year... probably the same this year.
Anyway, find the whole upgrade deal to be very simple. Historically on US Air? I was upgraded constantly. Now on AA? Rarely. Completely different world.
I do have some rules which seem to work for me. Going from CLT to LAX or SFO? Do NOT take the very early flights. If I am willing to depart at about 10:00am or later my odds increase dramatically. Returning from west coast? Expect to be about #16 on the upgrade list and get ready for a long uncomfortable flight.
DFW to TPA? Good odds. I'd say from my perspective, about 60/40 in favor of getting the upgrade. TPA to DFW? Not a snowballs chance. Can't tell you why.
CLT to MKE? about 85% chance.
CLT to MSP? Zero chance. ZERO.
CLT to ORD? Pick your times carefully and pretty good odds. Ditto TPA to ORD.
CLT to SEA? Yea right. In your dreams. Ditto PDX.
TPA to PHX? I seem to be doing pretty well. Both directions. At least 50/50.
Bottom line since I am not Ex. Plat., I just plan on no upgrades. Then every one I get is a bonus!
Anyway, find the whole upgrade deal to be very simple. Historically on US Air? I was upgraded constantly. Now on AA? Rarely. Completely different world.
I do have some rules which seem to work for me. Going from CLT to LAX or SFO? Do NOT take the very early flights. If I am willing to depart at about 10:00am or later my odds increase dramatically. Returning from west coast? Expect to be about #16 on the upgrade list and get ready for a long uncomfortable flight.
DFW to TPA? Good odds. I'd say from my perspective, about 60/40 in favor of getting the upgrade. TPA to DFW? Not a snowballs chance. Can't tell you why.
CLT to MKE? about 85% chance.
CLT to MSP? Zero chance. ZERO.
CLT to ORD? Pick your times carefully and pretty good odds. Ditto TPA to ORD.
CLT to SEA? Yea right. In your dreams. Ditto PDX.
TPA to PHX? I seem to be doing pretty well. Both directions. At least 50/50.
Bottom line since I am not Ex. Plat., I just plan on no upgrades. Then every one I get is a bonus!
TPA based EXP here. Upgrades have gotten to be very tough recently. In the past month, I have had a total of 20 flights, of those 16 were upgrade eligible, of those 16, I ended up clearing 2. I typically find myself as #1-#4 with F0. I am still not sure what I am going to do for next year. I just renewed my AC membership, so I will stick with AA exclusively for at least another year, maybe more. DL and UA are the same, and I love the AA staff at TPA, also MCE is nothing to complain about. While my upgrade percentage has gone down the toilet, I am still very happy with AA overall and still can't justify a switch. I sometimes think I will just book whoever can get me home on a Thursday night (with giving preference to AA, all other things equal), but AA has been great to me during IIROPS, 98% of the employees I have contact with are great and I love their TPA staff. My co-workers who fly DL and UA have the same (and sometimes worse) complaints. One poor co-worker of mine is a MM on UA and has been 1K for years, so far this year she as received 4 upgrades, total, and yes, she travels roughly 4 flights weekly, as I do. It will be interesting to see what the coming year will bring as far as changes to AAdvantage, but from what I hear from co-workers and friends who hold top tier status on DL and UA, the grass is not any greener over there. I guess this is just going to be the new norm. BTW, my flight on Friday, PHL-TPA went to F0 today. When I checked in on Monday, the TA checked Friday's flight for me and she said there were only 2 seats available, the other 12 (A321) were sold in advance, probably at very low prices.
Last edited by outwrdbound; Mar 16, 2016 at 10:27 pm
#184
Join Date: May 2007
Location: DFW Texas
Programs: AA (ExecPlat, >2MM), United (Gold, >1 MM), HH (Diamond), SPG (Gold), Accorhotels (Gold)
Posts: 92
Hi All
My partner and I are flying LAX-LHR-LAX in August. I am EXP - he has zero status.
LAX-LHR we are both listed for an upgrade using my system wides
LHR-LAX I am cleared already with a system wide (booked a month ago, he just booked his flight today) he is waitlisted with my miles and copay (25k + $350)
Where will he fall on upgrade list?
For Systemwide he will be treated as no status/systewide - or will he get my EXP status. A
And for milescopay he will be zero status?
Is there a way to link our reservations so he has a better shot?
Thanks all!
My partner and I are flying LAX-LHR-LAX in August. I am EXP - he has zero status.
LAX-LHR we are both listed for an upgrade using my system wides
LHR-LAX I am cleared already with a system wide (booked a month ago, he just booked his flight today) he is waitlisted with my miles and copay (25k + $350)
Where will he fall on upgrade list?
For Systemwide he will be treated as no status/systewide - or will he get my EXP status. A
And for milescopay he will be zero status?
Is there a way to link our reservations so he has a better shot?
Thanks all!
Call the EXP desk and see if they can link the reservations. I have no idea if that is possible or not. Bonne chance!
#185
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Tucson, AZ
Programs: AA Platinum, HIlton Gold
Posts: 191
I went ahead and booked it to confirm the TUS-DFW, DFW-MIA. The second is on the updated 767, so a tough upgrade in general and it was down to F2. MIA-DFW inventory hasn't budged, still J7 with 20 open seats. I didn't directly ask for an opinion but agent mentioned if she was in Vegas she'd put the money down on my seat clearing before checkin.
ExpertFlyer update: email just came in, about an hour after I found C inventory manually.
Last edited by gcsmith; Mar 17, 2016 at 8:11 am Reason: expertflyer update
#186
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, BA Gold, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,989
TPA based EXP here. Upgrades have gotten to be very tough recently. In the past month, I have had a total of 20 flights, of those 16 were upgrade eligible, of those 16, I ended up clearing 2. I typically find myself as #1-#4 with F0. I am still not sure what I am going to do for next year.
If my overall UPG percentage dropped as much as yours did, I'd have a really tough time sticking with AA.
#187
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Milwaukee
Programs: AA Pl, KL Platinum for Life
Posts: 384
I read on one of the threads that AA is reconfiguring certain A320 aircraft to only include 12 F seats. Interesting DL took delivery of it's first of 45 new A321 Stretch planes today and all will have 20F seats. AA is doing a huge disservice to it's FF community by reducing F capacity so drastically. They are also doing this on too many intl flights where F is being reduced to 8 with the new 77W and being eliminated on the 772 retrofits.
Is the CEO cost cutting Doug Parker behind this? Yet he says he is improving the customer experience.
Is the CEO cost cutting Doug Parker behind this? Yet he says he is improving the customer experience.
#188
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Milwaukee
Programs: AA Pl, KL Platinum for Life
Posts: 384
I needed to book last minute out of TPA recently and was surprised that F was practically zeroed out on most flights a few days before departure. I suppose there's a lot of paid F, particularly this time of year. I ended up flying through MIA and was somehow able to get the battlefield upgrade just before the door closed.
If my overall UPG percentage dropped as much as yours did, I'd have a really tough time sticking with AA.
If my overall UPG percentage dropped as much as yours did, I'd have a really tough time sticking with AA.
#189
Join Date: Aug 2012
Programs: AA PLT, SPG Gold
Posts: 2,405
I read on one of the threads that AA is reconfiguring certain A320 aircraft to only include 12 F seats. Interesting DL took delivery of it's first of 45 new A321 Stretch planes today and all will have 20F seats. AA is doing a huge disservice to it's FF community by reducing F capacity so drastically. They are also doing this on too many intl flights where F is being reduced to 8 with the new 77W and being eliminated on the 772 retrofits.
Is the CEO cost cutting Doug Parker behind this? Yet he says he is improving the customer experience.
Is the CEO cost cutting Doug Parker behind this? Yet he says he is improving the customer experience.
#190
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 866
I read on one of the threads that AA is reconfiguring certain A320 aircraft to only include 12 F seats. Interesting DL took delivery of it's first of 45 new A321 Stretch planes today and all will have 20F seats. AA is doing a huge disservice to it's FF community by reducing F capacity so drastically. They are also doing this on too many intl flights where F is being reduced to 8 with the new 77W and being eliminated on the 772 retrofits.
Is the CEO cost cutting Doug Parker behind this? Yet he says he is improving the customer experience.
Is the CEO cost cutting Doug Parker behind this? Yet he says he is improving the customer experience.
In any case, upgrade possibilities are now almost non-existent on the new A319s, which is likely AA's plan...sell F and stop upgraders.
#191
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Milwaukee
Programs: AA Pl, KL Platinum for Life
Posts: 384
The current A320 aircraft only have 12F, as did the original A319s. The A319s are being reduced to 8F. Do you mean reducing the 16F A321s to just 12F? If so, I haven't heard this and am curious if anyone in the know could confirm.
In any case, upgrade possibilities are now almost non-existent on the new A319s, which is likely AA's plan...sell F and stop upgraders.
In any case, upgrade possibilities are now almost non-existent on the new A319s, which is likely AA's plan...sell F and stop upgraders.
#192
Suspended
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Tampa, FL
Programs: AA EXP; UA Silver; Marriott Platinum Premier; Hilton Gold; Hyatt Platinum; National Executive Elite
Posts: 156
I needed to book last minute out of TPA recently and was surprised that F was practically zeroed out on most flights a few days before departure. I suppose there's a lot of paid F, particularly this time of year. I ended up flying through MIA and was somehow able to get the battlefield upgrade just before the door closed.
If my overall UPG percentage dropped as much as yours did, I'd have a really tough time sticking with AA.
If my overall UPG percentage dropped as much as yours did, I'd have a really tough time sticking with AA.
Last edited by outwrdbound; Mar 17, 2016 at 3:17 pm
#193
Suspended
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Tampa, FL
Programs: AA EXP; UA Silver; Marriott Platinum Premier; Hilton Gold; Hyatt Platinum; National Executive Elite
Posts: 156
#194
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Phoenix/Columbus
Programs: Delta Silver Medallion, United Gold, US Airways silver
Posts: 1,717
Ditto on negative feelings about the paltry # of FC seat on the new 319 configuration, making complementary upgrades for elites very difficult. Extending this reductions on other aircraft configurations is definitely not good news. Only 1 seat left 100 hours out on my next flight to STL and am sure it will be held until boarding for one lucky elite flyer. I was lucky on the last fight to snag it, but there was a lot of grousing among the others in the priority line.
#195
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 866
Ditto on negative feelings about the paltry # of FC seat on the new 319 configuration, making complementary upgrades for elites very difficult. Extending this reductions on other aircraft configurations is definitely not good news. Only 1 seat left 100 hours out on my next flight to STL and am sure it will be held until boarding for one lucky elite flyer. I was lucky on the last fight to snag it, but there was a lot of grousing among the others in the priority line.