2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)
Mar 18, 2015, 9:21 am
#196
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: SLC
Programs: Delta DM
Posts: 166
Update: 12 hours until flight and I'm #1 on waitlist. Crossing fingers!
Mar 18, 2015, 10:01 am
#197
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: PHL, NYC
Programs: AA PLT, DL SLV, UA SLV, MR LTT, HH DIA
Posts: 10,073
Silver is basically a small acknowledgement of loyalty since you get free bag check, preferred seating and priority boarding. An upgrade is a "nice to have", but I rarely expect it.
When you get transferred to AA Gold, you might have slightly better upgrade chances because you have to pay for them in the form of $30 per 500 miles or spending the 500 mile "stickers" they give you at thresholds. There will be other Golds and Platinums who choose not to use their 500 mile upgrade certs (aka "stickers"), so the battlefield you are on will be smaller.
When you get transferred to AA Gold, you might have slightly better upgrade chances because you have to pay for them in the form of $30 per 500 miles or spending the 500 mile "stickers" they give you at thresholds. There will be other Golds and Platinums who choose not to use their 500 mile upgrade certs (aka "stickers"), so the battlefield you are on will be smaller.
Mar 18, 2015, 10:19 am
#198
Join Date: Jan 2013
Programs: Hyatt Glb, MR Plat
Posts: 2,577
If you're departing the UK, you're going to pay around $100 each in additional business class taxes to use a systemwide from there on your economy fare (no extra charge when you fly home from Dublin as I'm doing this week), so make sure you factor that in.
I've upgraded three on LHR-LAX this week but they all cleared at booking from hidden EXP inventory - Expert Flyer didn't show a single upgrade seat five months out. My understanding is that it's an "all or nothing" situation when you're all on the same booking - either you all clear or none of you clear. Last week I was on a flight that was C7 at departure and you all would have cleared. I think it's a big gamble to think that's going to happen months down the line.
I've split up the booking in the past so that I'd be treated separately on a HKG trip, and then sponsored two friends that were split off that did clear one-way while I cleared both ways. In that case the booking reflected the "TCP" (to complete party) command and they cleared at the gate in the one direction as the top two of four on the gate list. The downside for that, and the reason I won't do it again when we travel together, is irregular operations. We could end up on different routings when looking for the last remaining seats on alternate flights in a weather or mechanical delay. That might be a consideration when you travel with family.
If I were you, if I can find three upgrade seats up front, I'd book that routing, even if it's not LHR-LAX. Keep in mind some of that availability is hidden at the EXP level and only an agent, once they input your account info, will be able to see it. Might be worthwhile to speak to an agent, tell them what you're looking for, and see if there are any routings where they can come up with 3 upgrade seats today.
I've upgraded three on LHR-LAX this week but they all cleared at booking from hidden EXP inventory - Expert Flyer didn't show a single upgrade seat five months out. My understanding is that it's an "all or nothing" situation when you're all on the same booking - either you all clear or none of you clear. Last week I was on a flight that was C7 at departure and you all would have cleared. I think it's a big gamble to think that's going to happen months down the line.
I've split up the booking in the past so that I'd be treated separately on a HKG trip, and then sponsored two friends that were split off that did clear one-way while I cleared both ways. In that case the booking reflected the "TCP" (to complete party) command and they cleared at the gate in the one direction as the top two of four on the gate list. The downside for that, and the reason I won't do it again when we travel together, is irregular operations. We could end up on different routings when looking for the last remaining seats on alternate flights in a weather or mechanical delay. That might be a consideration when you travel with family.
If I were you, if I can find three upgrade seats up front, I'd book that routing, even if it's not LHR-LAX. Keep in mind some of that availability is hidden at the EXP level and only an agent, once they input your account info, will be able to see it. Might be worthwhile to speak to an agent, tell them what you're looking for, and see if there are any routings where they can come up with 3 upgrade seats today.
We are departing either OSL or CPH which sets their award taxes at ~$175, while the return fare is an incredible $425. However, I'm surprised ex-LHR would incur additional taxes with an SWU. Considering all the factors and that's only 2 months out, I'm probably just going to stick with me only on revenue.
Mar 18, 2015, 10:56 am
#199
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Atlanta, GA
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum; Hilton Diamond
Posts: 239
Yeah, I wouldn't count on it. BUT things do happen. If it's a US marketed and operated flight, be sure to check in right at T-24. You can change your seat during OLCI and choose an open F seat if there are any. I scored several upgrades this way as Silver last year, including ATL-CLT and SFO-PHX. Congrats on making it into the elite ranks!
Mar 18, 2015, 11:27 am
#200
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: PHL
Programs: AA ExP, Marriott Amb, National EAE, Hilton Diamond, SPG Plat (RIP), US CP (RIP)
Posts: 2,379
I am a low level silver preferred. I was actually 3 PQMs short of 25K and the airline graciously gave me a "bump" to preferred anyways. I'm curious what my chances are of actually scoring any upgrades since I know I will literally be the last person on any upgrade list.
Many US elites earn on segments. Someone renewing Silver on segments may have as few as 15,000 PQM and it is PQM that prioritizes upgrades within a tier on US.
Mar 18, 2015, 1:34 pm
#201
Join Date: Dec 2014
Programs: AA exp
Posts: 114
So here is new datapoint to ponder.....
I just got off phone with EXP desk regarding SWU for my flight in May, DFW-LHR(Y-J). When I booked in Jan. not available but flight wide open. In the past usually I have had good luck with clearing 1-2 months out if flight wide open in J. Today agent told me she doubts it will clear until T-24 out because of the merger of FF programs and the inclusion of the CP in the EXP group despite J being wide open. This is apparently a new policy until the merger of programs is complete.
I just got off phone with EXP desk regarding SWU for my flight in May, DFW-LHR(Y-J). When I booked in Jan. not available but flight wide open. In the past usually I have had good luck with clearing 1-2 months out if flight wide open in J. Today agent told me she doubts it will clear until T-24 out because of the merger of FF programs and the inclusion of the CP in the EXP group despite J being wide open. This is apparently a new policy until the merger of programs is complete.
Mar 18, 2015, 2:12 pm
#202
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: DCA
Programs: MR Plat; AA Gold; UA Silver
Posts: 352
I've been Silver since October and was upgraded LAS-DCA (on a Tuesday afternoon) and BOS-DCA (right after Christmas). I was very surprised both times but miracles happen I guess! Wondering if I'll get upgraded DCA-MSY and DCA-BUF in May.
Mar 18, 2015, 3:09 pm
#203
Suspended
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: FIND ME ON TWITTER FOR THE LATEST
Posts: 27,730
Mar 18, 2015, 3:18 pm
#204
Suspended
Join Date: May 2013
Location: NYC
Programs: DL Diamond, AAdvantage EXP, Hyatt Explorist, HHonors Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 7,344
Still waiting on my UPG ORD-LGA tomorrow night. As always this one clears much later than my outbounds LGA-ORD.
Mar 18, 2015, 3:21 pm
#205
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: AAdvantage, Hilton
Posts: 3,191
So here is new datapoint to ponder.....
I just got off phone with EXP desk regarding SWU for my flight in May, DFW-LHR(Y-J). When I booked in Jan. not available but flight wide open. In the past usually I have had good luck with clearing 1-2 months out if flight wide open in J. Today agent told me she doubts it will clear until T-24 out because of the merger of FF programs and the inclusion of the CP in the EXP group despite J being wide open. This is apparently a new policy until the merger of programs is complete.
I just got off phone with EXP desk regarding SWU for my flight in May, DFW-LHR(Y-J). When I booked in Jan. not available but flight wide open. In the past usually I have had good luck with clearing 1-2 months out if flight wide open in J. Today agent told me she doubts it will clear until T-24 out because of the merger of FF programs and the inclusion of the CP in the EXP group despite J being wide open. This is apparently a new policy until the merger of programs is complete.
Mar 18, 2015, 3:36 pm
#206
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: SNA
Posts: 928
Either (1) the CP is also EXP, and is using his/her own SWUs, or (2) the CP is being gifted an SWU by an EXP.
Neither case has anything to do with the merger.
Unless I'm missing something...
Last edited by pmblinn; Mar 18, 2015 at 3:48 pm Reason: Spelling
Mar 18, 2015, 5:06 pm
#207
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: SLC
Programs: Delta DM
Posts: 166
Just cleared LAX-LHR on miles + copay. Check-in agent told me I was #1 on waitlist and to just wait. I was chilling in the lounge and then I heard a famous tennis player get called to the front desk (there's a big event in LA this week) so I decide to wander over and meet the guy. Took the opportunity to then check on my upgrade and the lady said I was still #1 but she could just confirm it right then (why couldn't the check-in agent??).
Anyway, confirmed into a good seat and I'm happy.
Anyway, confirmed into a good seat and I'm happy.
Mar 18, 2015, 6:08 pm
#208
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: BA-life Gold; AA-EXP 4m+; Virgin-Gold; SPG-Life Plat; Hilton-Diamond; Marriott-Plat; Amex Centurion
Posts: 9
Airport upgrade waitlist on AA
Hello everyone. I have a question regarding complimentary upgrades for EP's and the airport upgrade standby list. On a recent flight from JFK-LAX I was number 3 on the upgrade list (using comp EP upgrades). Just prior to doors closing they cleared 3 passengers from the upgrade list - numbers 1, 4 and 6. My understanding is that the ranking on the airport list displayed both at the gate and on your smart-phone app takes into account status, time when upgrade requested and fare paid, so why wouldn't the upgrades be allocated in rank order? I have had occasions when my rank has altered due to new passengers being added to the list, but this was not the case. I remained in position 3, but they skipped me and upgraded numbers 4 and 6 instead! I enquired with the purser and he gave an excuse that 4 and 6 must have had higher fares, but doesn't the automated ranking take that into account. What is the point of a ranking if it doesn't mean anything?? Has anyone else experienced this?
Mar 18, 2015, 6:08 pm
#209
Join Date: Dec 2014
Programs: AA exp
Posts: 114
This does not concern eVIP's. This is over use of international SWU's if not cleared at initial booking as far as I understood it. In other words, we will all be holding our breath till T-24 if you are not able to get the UPG initially.
Mar 18, 2015, 9:01 pm
#210
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: SLC
Programs: Delta DM
Posts: 166
To further elaborate on AA136 LAX-LHR, three (of 5) passengers were cleared at the gate and I was #1 of that list at check in as a PLT who had booked his ticket less than a week before. So upgradability doesn't look too dire. At least on a Wednesday.