Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Discontinued Programs/Partners > American Airlines | AAdvantage (Pre-Consolidation with USAir)
Reload this Page >

2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)

2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)

 

Old Jan 1, 15, 9:12 pm
  #1  
Moderator: American AAdvantage & TravelBuzz
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: BOS
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Plat
Posts: 9,660
2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)

MODERATOR NOTES

Please use this thread to discuss upgrade availability on specific flights for calendar year 2015, and for now, booking into 2016.

For general information, see this FAQ entry: What are the chances that my upgrade will clear?

For specific information herein, try using Search this Thread for your relevant airport code(s), as well as for the previous archived threads:

Tools like ExpertFlyer and KVS can be useful in seeing upgrade availability as well as seats for sale available in the cabin you seek. The Travel Tools Forum has extensive threads about these tools.

2014: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...solidated.html
2013: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...ed-2013-a.html
2012 and prior: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...012-prior.html
sica4 has generously started a system for tracking upgrade percentages. Please see THIS PREVIOUS POST or click HERE to contribute.

Please do not ask members to post proprietary information (e.g. ExpertFlyer data) regarding upgrade chances (a thoughtful, helpful member may post information, but you are not allowed to request it). Subscriptions and free trials for these services are available.

The AA Forum Moderator Team
JY1024 is offline  
Old Jan 1, 15, 9:54 pm
  #2  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Programs: AA PLT, SPG Gold
Posts: 1,763
2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)

flying sna-dfw tomorrow, requested sticker upgrades late bc wasn't sure whether to use or not. F cabin goes from F7 to F2 but still 12/16 seats unassigned. Wouldn't people normally select their seats as they get upgraded? Weird. Can't wait to try out the discount dougie diet if we clear!
no1cub17 is online now  
Old Jan 1, 15, 10:18 pm
  #3  
Moderator: American AAdvantage & TravelBuzz
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: BOS
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Plat
Posts: 9,660
How does the Y cabin look? Could it be that Y is overbooked and they're back F seats with the anticipation that they're going to upgrade/bump passengers from the back?
JY1024 is offline  
Old Jan 2, 15, 12:00 am
  #4  
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: California
Programs: AA EXP...couple hotels and cars too
Posts: 3,110
If you are new to this topic...

an EXCELLENT way to come up to speed on this is to give a quick read of last years' thread. Same techniques and suggestions apply.

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...l#post24070407
Exec_Plat is offline  
Old Jan 2, 15, 5:40 am
  #5  
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Huntersville, NC USA
Programs: AA EXP Plat, UA 1mm,HHonors Diamond
Posts: 72
Booked yesterday
2/28 AA90 ORD-LHR SWU cleared on phone after booked
3/10 AA51 LHR-DFW SWU cleared on phone after booked

Good way to start out 2015
bmrsjohn is offline  
Old Jan 2, 15, 8:34 am
  #6  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Programs: AA PLT, SPG Gold
Posts: 1,763
Originally Posted by JY1024 View Post
How does the Y cabin look? Could it be that Y is overbooked and they're back F seats with the anticipation that they're going to upgrade/bump passengers from the back?
Interestingly I checked EF a bit later and back to F7. Y pretty full. Anyway we cleared overnight so lets see just how bad this new doggie diet is!
no1cub17 is online now  
Old Jan 2, 15, 9:20 am
  #7  
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: MDE, BWI
Programs: AA-PLT
Posts: 1,380
I got a nice little surprise today. I'm flying MDE-MIA-ORD, ORD-BWI, and BWI-MIA-MDE later this month. The flights to and from MDE were showing as waitlist, but when I called to get on the waitlist, the agent said she could confirm them. Plus, I had not intended to upgrade BWI-ORD, as I thought I would have to use a third SWU, but she told me it was included in the 3-segment rule, so I got that one for "free." (free at least from my point of view, as I did not realize I was entitled to it).

I was surprised to see that the MDE flights booked into C, while the domestic segments were booked to A.
coolcoil is offline  
Old Jan 3, 15, 10:52 am
  #8  
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: BOS/BDL
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 774
Looking at AA106 JFK-LHR on the 10th...Biz looks wide open. It looks like a 77W too. What are my chances of clearing that upgrade? It's C0 right now but the it's got 40+ seats open.
Pinned is offline  
Old Jan 6, 15, 8:04 am
  #9  
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: FLL
Programs: AAdvantage EXP
Posts: 134
Better chance for redeye upgrade LAX to MIA

Hi I'm needing help from you expertflyers experts out there. I just got a subscription and am learning how to read the data.

For example, I want to book a redeye from LAX to MIA next week. If we look at Wednesday 1/14.

AA258: seatmap shows 4 open seats (although it says A2). The first 3 rows (MCE) look pretty full.

AA115: seatmap shows 3 open seats (although it also says A2). MCE looks more empty. In particular the bulkhead is very empty, that is where the elites like to sit right?

My question is this: which one would you choose for a higher chance of upgrade?

Thanks for your help.
riastradh is offline  
Old Jan 6, 15, 8:16 am
  #10  
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: PBI/FLL/MIA
Programs: DL DM/MM, AA ExPlat, HH Diamond, MR Lifetime Platinum, Hyatt Globalist, National EE
Posts: 1,600
Originally Posted by riastradh View Post
Hi I'm needing help from you expertflyers experts out there. I just got a subscription and am learning how to read the data.

For example, I want to book a redeye from LAX to MIA next week. If we look at Wednesday 1/14.

AA258: seatmap shows 4 open seats (although it says A2). The first 3 rows (MCE) look pretty full.

AA115: seatmap shows 3 open seats (although it also says A2). MCE looks more empty. In particular the bulkhead is very empty, that is where the elites like to sit right?

My question is this: which one would you choose for a higher chance of upgrade?

Thanks for your help.

115 probably your better bet since it has more open MCE seats. Now showing A0... I fly this route all the time (although I NEVER take the redeye!) and it is a tough complimentary UG... it's a good route for me to use miles plus copay or an SWU on. If you choose to go that route keep on eye on the A fare bucket as seats will be become available in that bucket on occasion as you get closer to departure.
krlcomm is offline  
Old Jan 6, 15, 9:05 am
  #11  
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: FLL
Programs: AAdvantage EXP
Posts: 134
Originally Posted by krlcomm View Post
115 probably your better bet since it has more open MCE seats. Now showing A0... I fly this route all the time (although I NEVER take the redeye!) and it is a tough complimentary UG... it's a good route for me to use miles plus copay or an SWU on. If you choose to go that route keep on eye on the A fare bucket as seats will be become available in that bucket on occasion as you get closer to departure.
Thanks! I have a lot of TPAC, so I have to save up my SWU's. I'll manage my expectations on this upgrade.

I'm also FLL/PBI/MIA, so maybe I'll see you on one of these flights.
riastradh is offline  
Old Jan 6, 15, 9:40 am
  #12  
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: FLL
Programs: AAdvantage EXP
Posts: 134
Originally Posted by krlcomm View Post
115 probably your better bet since it has more open MCE seats. Now showing A0... I fly this route all the time (although I NEVER take the redeye!) and it is a tough complimentary UG... it's a good route for me to use miles plus copay or an SWU on. If you choose to go that route keep on eye on the A fare bucket as seats will be become available in that bucket on occasion as you get closer to departure.
Okay another general question. I'm now looking at AA115 the following day. It shows F0A0, but if you look at seat map there's 3 free seats and MCE pretty empty. What do I go by? Have all the seats been sold and just not assigned? In which case there's no chance of upgrade unless no-show.

I could try AA258 which says F2, and indeed the seat map shows 2, but MCE is packed.
riastradh is offline  
Old Jan 15, 15, 5:27 am
  #13  
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Roswell, GA
Programs: AA EXP 2.8m,Lifetime PLT, Hilton Diamond, IHG PlLT, SPG Gold
Posts: 1,024
Success using SWU in 2015

Mods, if you need to move this, please do..

Well its 2015, just wanted to see how your SWU have been working for you this year.
I am happy to report that ATL-DFW-INC for a trip for my wife and myself cleared a few days ago for travel in April . (the agent was able to upgrade my wife first, she has no status, and wait listed me, but 3 days later, mine came thru)
My flight to BOM, via MIA still still pending, as in the return via ORD, they say it looks good.
fotographer is offline  
Old Jan 15, 15, 5:44 am
  #14  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: SJC/VCE
Programs: AA PLT (2.9+ MM), HH GLD, Hyatt Diamond, SPG PLT
Posts: 10,158
A few weeks ago I booked a DFW-LHR roundtrip for March (on the 77W - at least for now) and both upgrades cleared at booking. It was sort of like the "old days" I've seen reports elsewhere of improved SWU clearing. I do hope it lasts
bdemaria is offline  
Old Jan 15, 15, 7:16 am
  #15  
Moderator: American AAdvantage, Signatures
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: London, England
Programs: AA EXP Emeritus Now UA 1K, Hilton, Marriott/SPG Gold, National Exec
Posts: 9,081
Originally Posted by fotographer View Post
Mods, if you need to move this, please do..

Well its 2015, just wanted to see how your SWU have been working for you this year.
I am happy to report that ATL-DFW-INC for a trip for my wife and myself cleared a few days ago for travel in April . (the agent was able to upgrade my wife first, she has no status, and wait listed me, but 3 days later, mine came thru)
My flight to BOM, via MIA still still pending, as in the return via ORD, they say it looks good.
We'll go ahead and merge this into the 2015 Upgrade Success thread.

~Moderator
Microwave is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread