2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)
#16
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: SF/OC
Programs: UA GS, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 474
I just booked a few SFO>MIA>SFO flights in Feb and Mar and I was surprised to see just how full the F cabin already was. This is on the 763. I had hoped my chances would have been good given the number of seats. Are these all revenue passengers or are people using SWU's to clear on this flight?
#17
Senior Moderator and Moderator: American AAdvantage & TravelBuzz
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: BOS
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I just booked a few SFO>MIA>SFO flights in Feb and Mar and I was surprised to see just how full the F cabin already was. This is on the 763. I had hoped my chances would have been good given the number of seats. Are these all revenue passengers or are people using SWU's to clear on this flight?
(I'm not familiar with that route, so not sure if there is high demand for premium paid fares. My gut says that with the high-dollar industries in those markets, demand would be high, but I have no proof.)
#18
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: DTW
Programs: AA Exec Plt , Marriott Ambassador
Posts: 592
I just booked a few SFO>MIA>SFO flights in Feb and Mar and I was surprised to see just how full the F cabin already was. This is on the 763. I had hoped my chances would have been good given the number of seats. Are these all revenue passengers or are people using SWU's to clear on this flight?
#19
Join Date: Jan 2013
Programs: Hyatt Glb, MR Plat
Posts: 2,577
Can someone enlighten me about AA170 NRT-LAX on 2/10 as I am unfamiliar with this route. 10 open J seats on seatmap, MCE row 20 middle is wide open and thinking of switching to this to be able to go to work the same day. I would think those would be one of the first taken up by EXP if they are on this flight.
#20
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: California
Programs: AA EXP...couple hotels and cars too
Posts: 4,548
Can someone enlighten me about AA170 NRT-LAX on 2/10 as I am unfamiliar with this route. 10 open J seats on seatmap, MCE row 20 middle is wide open and thinking of switching to this to be able to go to work the same day. I would think those would be one of the first taken up by EXP if they are on this flight.
The calculus is [number of J to F upgrades that will happen] + [10 open seats] - [your position on the waitlist] - [# of J seats sold up to flight time] >=0
#21
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,673
Can someone enlighten me about AA170 NRT-LAX on 2/10 as I am unfamiliar with this route. 10 open J seats on seatmap, MCE row 20 middle is wide open and thinking of switching to this to be able to go to work the same day. I would think those would be one of the first taken up by EXP if they are on this flight.
That said, this flight is showing F7 J7 I5 Y1 and yet the Y seatmap (MCE especially) is wide open. That would lead me to wonder whether Y isn't close to oversold and that they'll probably need to bump some J into F to make room some op-ups from Y to J, which would probably be those in MCE.
Thus, despite there only being 10 J seats open, I suspect your chances might be better than they might sometimes be. As for what those chances are, I have no idea - I would call it possible but not probable.
(That said, I've had flights where upgrades looked impossible turn into upgrades at the gate - so in that sense anything is possible:-)
#22
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 361
Flying NAS - DFW - ORD on Saturday (1/24)
Cleared NAS - DFW at T-100, but DFW - ORD has yet to clear even though EF is showing F7/A6.
8/16 FC seats assigned.
What gives?
Cleared NAS - DFW at T-100, but DFW - ORD has yet to clear even though EF is showing F7/A6.
8/16 FC seats assigned.
What gives?
#23
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What gives? You are still several days before the flight & Very few upgrades clear at 100 hrs these days.
#24
Join Date: Jan 2013
Programs: Hyatt Glb, MR Plat
Posts: 2,577
Its hard to say much about one flight - much easier to choose the better bet of two or more flights.
That said, this flight is showing F7 J7 I5 Y1 and yet the Y seatmap (MCE especially) is wide open. That would lead me to wonder whether Y isn't close to oversold and that they'll probably need to bump some J into F to make room some op-ups from Y to J, which would probably be those in MCE.
Thus, despite there only being 10 J seats open, I suspect your chances might be better than they might sometimes be. As for what those chances are, I have no idea - I would call it possible but not probable.
(That said, I've had flights where upgrades looked impossible turn into upgrades at the gate - so in that sense anything is possible:-)
That said, this flight is showing F7 J7 I5 Y1 and yet the Y seatmap (MCE especially) is wide open. That would lead me to wonder whether Y isn't close to oversold and that they'll probably need to bump some J into F to make room some op-ups from Y to J, which would probably be those in MCE.
Thus, despite there only being 10 J seats open, I suspect your chances might be better than they might sometimes be. As for what those chances are, I have no idea - I would call it possible but not probable.
(That said, I've had flights where upgrades looked impossible turn into upgrades at the gate - so in that sense anything is possible:-)
Also, if Y isn't oversold, why do you think they will do op-ups from Y to J?
#25
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: SF/OC
Programs: UA GS, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 474
This makes sense. I wasn't sure on the timing, but perhaps this is why they use a 763 on this particular flight.
#26
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,673
I appreciate the input. I'm currently waitlisted for the gauntlet that is AA138 HKG-DFW since last July, so my chances on that should be decent (knock on wood). However, since I received an involuntary schedule change and assuming it'll be a free change, considering booking to AA170 to go straight to work. I guess the best strategy is to wait until C opens up, but was just curios why row 20 was wide open in MCE, maybe not as elite heavy? Or these seats are just bad.
Also, if Y isn't oversold, why do you think they will do op-ups from Y to J?
Also, if Y isn't oversold, why do you think they will do op-ups from Y to J?
Actually having typed that - isn't AA170 a 772? In which case it doesn't have MCE (does it?). I would stick with Y on a 773 (if I am in an MCE seat) rather than switch to a 772 even if the chance of upgrade was a little better.
#27
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Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Benicia CA
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I missed 3 of 6 in either direction last year which dropped my domestic upgrade rate down to 87%. It's a tough flight to clear with the paid demand on that route. I would have been at 95% last year if those had cleared.
#28
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: AAdvantage, Hilton
Posts: 3,191
Can someone enlighten me about AA170 NRT-LAX on 2/10 as I am unfamiliar with this route. 10 open J seats on seatmap, MCE row 20 middle is wide open and thinking of switching to this to be able to go to work the same day. I would think those would be one of the first taken up by EXP if they are on this flight.
J has less than 10 seats for sale.
Fewer than 10 folks currently on upgrade list.
Fewer than 5 EXPs on the upgrade list.
F is wide open.
As of this moment the chances of an upgrade are pretty good, but that is all dependent on how many more F/J seats get sold between now and flight date.
#29
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ORD-SFO is down to 4x/weekday for the dog days of winter. The 7am departure used to be a reasonable shot last year when I was PLT as it was all Chicago O/D - wouldn't clear in advance, but 50/50 of clearing at T-4. Now I'm EXP, the 8:40am is the first flight, and it's already down to F4 for a week from today. Looks like I'm going to lose out to all the connecting traffic, the PLTs/GLDs on 6am flights from the east coast spending 15k+$75 and the EXPs who will have more priority.
And here I was hoping to get away from 15F for four hours and give my poor neck a break (the 737 Y seats do a number on my upper back as I'm too tall for the seatback).
First world problems.
And here I was hoping to get away from 15F for four hours and give my poor neck a break (the 737 Y seats do a number on my upper back as I'm too tall for the seatback).
First world problems.
#30
Join Date: Jan 2013
Programs: Hyatt Glb, MR Plat
Posts: 2,577
If it is showing Y1, then it probably is oversold - the lack of occupied seats is due to the fact that Y has sold to non-status fliers who can only get MCE by paying and most of them don't. Thus, I infer that Y is full but there are few elites on this flight in Y.
Actually having typed that - isn't AA170 a 772? In which case it doesn't have MCE (does it?). I would stick with Y on a 773 (if I am in an MCE seat) rather than switch to a 772 even if the chance of upgrade was a little better.
Actually having typed that - isn't AA170 a 772? In which case it doesn't have MCE (does it?). I would stick with Y on a 773 (if I am in an MCE seat) rather than switch to a 772 even if the chance of upgrade was a little better.
Y is oversold.
J has less than 10 seats for sale.
Fewer than 10 folks currently on upgrade list.
Fewer than 5 EXPs on the upgrade list.
F is wide open.
As of this moment the chances of an upgrade are pretty good, but that is all dependent on how many more F/J seats get sold between now and flight date.
J has less than 10 seats for sale.
Fewer than 10 folks currently on upgrade list.
Fewer than 5 EXPs on the upgrade list.
F is wide open.
As of this moment the chances of an upgrade are pretty good, but that is all dependent on how many more F/J seats get sold between now and flight date.
sukn, why do you assume it's less than 5 EXP on the upgrade list?