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US/AA merger- MASTER DISCUSSION THREAD/incl 'when will US leave STAR'

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Old Nov 12, 2013, 2:24 pm
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Note:

There is an existing thread in the AA forum that may be useful to US and AA Flyertalkers:
US-AA Merger: Just the Facts thread

As facts become posted, that should be the place to look.

Merger discussion, speculation, and other questions can be directed here, or the similar thread in the AA forum:
MERGER: US and AA 9 Dec 2013 and implications for AA flyers (new)

AA - US Merger Agreement / Announcement / DOJ Action Discussion (consolidated, and now closed to new posts)
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US/AA merger- MASTER DISCUSSION THREAD/incl 'when will US leave STAR'

 
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 2:30 am
  #2221  
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Originally Posted by TRAVELSIG
That seems quite optimistic- however I can imagine that now the decision has been made there will be a push to get this completed as soon as possible.

Between QR joining OW and US moving to OW this year will prove to have been quite a coup and big win to One World and not the best of years for the Star Alliance.
What I had heard the original internal targetted departure date from *A was November. With the DOJ thing, obviously it is delayed.

What I really wonder is that what *A requires for members to leave and how things will be handled for passengers with existing bookings. The last 2 big mergers were same-alliance. This one is going to be interesting...
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 7:40 am
  #2222  
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Originally Posted by burlax
I believe DP said he wouldn't touch AA's quality of service.
Look at SMI/J-the best person ever in terms of keeping promises and telling the truth., right?
(my biggest concern right now is YQ on awards, which is why I am burning my AA mileage balance. Which your great leader said in writing he would add. )
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 10:07 am
  #2223  
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Originally Posted by username
What I had heard the original internal targetted departure date from *A was November. With the DOJ thing, obviously it is delayed.

What I really wonder is that what *A requires for members to leave and how things will be handled for passengers with existing bookings. The last 2 big mergers were same-alliance. This one is going to be interesting...
If memory serves me right, CO first moved from Sky Team to Star Alliance, or am I incorrect in that?
I think CO then was bigger than US is now, but I'm not certain on that.
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 10:10 am
  #2224  
 
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Correct, CO moved from SkyTeam to *A before the merger.
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 11:46 am
  #2225  
 
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Originally Posted by stockmanjr
I think the unions were really stupid for being so gung ho about this merger. We all know there's going to be large scale layoffs coming due to redundancies but they were just not smart enough to see this.
Cheers
Howie
Modern day union members are far too often concerned with "what's in if for me" instead of "what's best for everyone in the union". The thought of raises for all from what AA had negotiated along with getting rid of Horton was enough to make most favor the merger. On the US side, Horton wasn't as much a consideration but the raises were bigger since what Horton negotiated with most of AA's unions represented a nice raise for US workers.

I think it was FWAAA who posted that US was profitable for one reason - the lower cost of the employees - and it's true. US has the lowest cost per employee of any carrier flying mainline sized planes.

Jim
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 2:14 pm
  #2226  
 
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Originally Posted by SusanDK
I wish the new AA would pick up a direct Scandinavia - US route, for example, CPH-CLT. It's only possible to fly direct from CPH to the US on Star Alliance year round, and Skyteam seasonally in summer. I fly CPH-MCO a few times a year and can only make a single connection flight with Star (SK, AC, LH) or summer only with SkyTeam (DL). OW (BA) can only be done with an airport change (LHR/LGW) that doesn't appeal.

I would love if OW would give me a single connection option now that US is out of Star.
Didn't US try PHL-CPH and then cancel it. If they couldnt make it work when they were in *A I doubt we will see the merged airline try Scandinavia in the near future.
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 2:33 pm
  #2227  
 
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I guess there is a chance AY (Finnair) (or AA) starts PHL-HEL ... but that is probably the best (and likely long) shot to that region...

In the past, I think there was PHL-ARN (Stockholm) service, that compared to other options was way too pricey.
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 3:22 pm
  #2228  
 
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Originally Posted by BoeingBoy
You may be one of the exceptions but I'd wager more CPs use their certs to upgrade to Envoy than pay for it. US saw nothing to stop them from shrinking the size of the Envoy cabin after the US/HP merger. As for Envoy not existing I have my doubts. Some pay full fare (or employer/client does) but most are upgrades. Having a business class on TATL flights is a competitive necessity - without it US wouldn't get any premium traffic.
Of course, it has nothing to do with the new product taking up more physical floor space. Or "right sizing" the cabins to match demand. That couldn't possibly be it.

From watching airlines for 30+ years and US specificly for 20+ years. If you've got facts to dispute this - not anecdotes about your travels - by all means present them. Show us all which TATL flights have 75% or better full fare premium traffic day in and day out. Heck, show us the flights that have 50%.
I do love when anecdotal observations lead to a demand for proprietary data. But, from a mathematical standpoint, think about this: There are not a huge amount of CPs, and not all of them burn (or even try to burn) the certs. TATL mileage upgrades have a sizable co-pay attached (read: additional revenue) and reduce a liability. But even then... there aren't that many people who have them in significant quantities to regularly fill the cabins with upgraders.

Again, most passengers are sitting in coach. They may or may not get decent sleep - some people have trouble sleeping on planes and some don't. But in coach, with no lie-flat seats with extra width, many of those who do get some sleep don't get restful sleep. Again, wander out of Envoy and stroll the coach aisle(s) once in a while and see for yourself. Most times half the coach passengers or more are watching a movie, listening to music, tossing and turning, etc - anything but getting a restful nights sleep.
Instead of ranting, try reading what I said. Specifically that [/b]SOME[/b] people prefer to get meaningful sleep time. Not all. Some. Having DFW and ORD as options provide additional flexibility to get that which does not exist in the current US network.
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 3:28 pm
  #2229  
 
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Originally Posted by BoeingBoy
But again, the magic number is spend per flight. A 200 segment flyer who flies on the cheapest fare they can get produces a lot more revenue than a 100 segment/year flyer who gets free upgrades to FC.
... and that's exactly what the idea of qualifying by revenue rewards. So why is that an issue for anyone?

Qualifying on spend - whatever the limits unless very low - would reward those who pay "full boat" for their tickets but almost certainly hurt those FF forced by their company or economics to but the cheapest seats available. But being a "full boat" payer that'd probably suit you - instead of a million or more soon FFs there's only be thousands.
Again, read what I wrote. I said I'd like to see spend as more than just a disqualifier. It shouldn't make a difference to US whether I spend $15k on 50 segments and 60k miles of flying or if I'm spending it on MRs. The whole point is that you want to offer the most benefits to the customers who exhibit the behavior you want to reward. The only losers in a revenue qualifying scheme are the low-spend, high mileage fliers - those who take more out in benefits than they put in in cash.

Why the heck wouldn't the airline want to incentivize with a scheme that was 100k/120 seg/ $15k as qualifying thresholds? In that instance, there really aren't any losers.
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 3:36 pm
  #2230  
 
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Originally Posted by anabolism
If you're a low or mid elite, AA's system is bad if you want free upgrades, but is good if you want a better shot at upgrades. By making you pay with 500-mile segment instruments, they reduce the competition, meaning you're more likely to get the upgrades you really want.
I agree with you on this... but I think the "unlimited upgrades" marketing pitch will probably win out unless the 500 milers are providing a significant source of revenue. I've never had to buy them on AA, so can't really say what my willingness to pay for them would be. Gut feeling says I'd only request/buy the ones I really want. That would basically be the UA system, but without the ability to buy your way to the top of the list and take an upgrade out from under a higher tier.

AA has a program called Elite Rewards that provides extra rewards at mid-points between the tiers, and at points above the top tier. As I see it, this is a very clever way of getting the benefits (to the airline) of more tiers (incentive to hit more thresholds) without the drawbacks (pissing off elites who get diluted). I hope the US execs see the wisdom of continuing the AA system.
Special Dividends is a similar program at US. I tend to prefer the scheme AA has setup vs. US, but that's largely because I don't have a lot of use for most of the things US offers, whereas AA offers miles I can bank or additional SWUs. The VIPs/SWUs are transferrable so I've used them to give to family as a perk when they visit.
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 3:53 pm
  #2231  
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Originally Posted by McFlyPHL
I agree with you on this... but I think the "unlimited upgrades" marketing pitch will probably win out unless the 500 milers are providing a significant source of revenue.
A decade ago, AA management told the analysts during a quarterly loss conference call that its upgrade sticker revenue was north of $120 million a year. An analyst had asked Arpey whether AA would switch to any type of UDU system like the other big airlines had done, and the answer was that if AA did that, the revenue would have to be replaced somehow.

Not too long after that, AA gave the top tier (EXP) Unlimited domestic upgrades, which include Hawai'i and the Caribbean and Central America. At the same time, EXPs no longer earn any of the stickers (four 500s per 10,000 miles flown) so now EXPs have to buy them to upgrade companions.

AA hasn't said how much money the upgrades are bringing in these days, but I'd bet it's more than the $120 million that it was 10 years ago. Sure beats the TOD nonsense that might be happening at UA.

AA hasn't had any trouble filling its F cabins over the past 10 years, so giving in to UDU for all would appear to be a giveaway of whatever revenue those upgrade stickers bring in, and that could be in the $100 million to $150 million range. AA has been attracting UA 1Ks with status matches, so no shortage of F seat occupants. I don't see DP giving up that kind of revenue, especially since it could grow to perhaps $200 million or so if the US elites (non-top tier) have to begin buying them.
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 4:38 pm
  #2232  
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Originally Posted by FWAAA
.. Sure beats the TOD nonsense that might be happening at UA.

...
the only nonsense here is suggesting TOD exist in a meaningful way - in all my flights as an elite as well as statusless family/colleagues i have not seen anything resembling TOD. TOD on UA is an urban myth.
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 4:48 pm
  #2233  
 
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Originally Posted by azepine00
the only nonsense here is suggesting TOD exist in a meaningful way - in all my flights as an elite as well as statusless family/colleagues i have not seen anything resembling TOD. TOD on UA is an urban myth.
I've been offered them on ~20% of my UA trips - while I was on the waitlist as a 1K. According to UA's social media team, that's intentional and it's a "benefit" to allow me the opportunity to buy my way to the front of the line.
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 6:53 pm
  #2234  
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Originally Posted by BoeingBoy
Modern day union members are far too often concerned with "what's in if for me" instead of "what's best for everyone in the union".
As opposed to modern day management who consistently look out for employees, pax and the long term good of the company. Oh right, they simply look at short term profits and 'what's in if [sic] for me".

Rather myopic view you're expressing.
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Old Nov 16, 2013, 7:43 pm
  #2235  
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Originally Posted by dsquared37
As opposed to modern day management who consistently look out for employees, pax and the long term good of the company. Oh right, they simply look at short term profits and 'what's in if [sic] for me".
As if they're mutually exclusive?
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