louie-m

No-one knows. You can be sure it will be widely publicised once the news eventually breaks though.

richarddd

Why would they move absent the merger?

nkedel

Your magic 8 ball is as good as ours!

CenterWaters

Perhaps US wants to join OW, with or with a merger with AA?

richarddd

"Perhaps" is not a very persuasive rationale.

perseus11

My theory is that if the merger fails, both US and AA may also fail within a few years. Consequently, I believe they will establish some sort of relationship (along with BA), which ensures their long term survival. US will never be more than a 2nd fiddle to LH and UA if they remain in *A. Joining OW would also provide excellent partner access to Asia and more than likely 1 or more JVs - something US has been denied with *A. The Joint Venture potential alone makes dumping *A for OW likely a worthwhile endeavor. BTW, jump to the bottom of this page (Members Elect): http://www.oneworld.com/member-airlines/overview

richarddd

An effective JV requires antitrust waivers. We only get there if the DOJ succeeds in blocking the US - AA merger. How likely is it that the govt will grant those waivers?

nova08

US has to be invited to join OW. The only reason they were joining OW was because of AA's membership. In a scenario with no merger AA, BA, and OW as a whole have to invite US to join. US can't just knock on the door and say let us in.

And joining the ATI agreement's already in place is another battle. I suspect the airlines in the existing ATI agreements would rather keep them status quo so as to not have the DoJ go after them as well and end up worse off.

Superguy

Dougie also seems too cheap to overhaul the systems so they'd be compatible with OW's vs. *A. Hell, it took them forever to get an iPhone/Android app out the door - almost a year later than promised. And that's just a simple app.

I don't see Dougie throwing the resources at the project necessary to get it done quickly.

UA Fan

I have a feeling that at US may join 1W merger or not.

CenterWaters

if the merger does not go through, will AA refuse to sponsor US's entry into OW? What incentive does AA have for inviting US?

I don't know why AA's team of attorneys didn't demand $2 billion if the merger cannot be consummated. (like what AT&T had to pay when the merger with T-Mobile couldn't go through)

coastalguy

You're talking about Deutsche Telekom attorneys + Marconi Pacific consultants versus AA and US Airlines attorneys.

Fanjet

AY was just added to the AA/BA/IB ATI/JV. So it has grown. And given the fact that the EU Commission signed off on the merger (which meant that US's intl network would be part of the ATI), I don't see how it could face any hurdles as a stand alone carrier. The DOJ really focused on the domestic aspect of this merger. And US's presence in the east coast provides a lot of feed for IB and BA's flights at BOS and PHL that AA's weak presence on the east coast doesn't at JFK.

dcpatti

The $3b AT&T paid to T-mobile was to cover any potential collateral damage to T-mobile's brand name; both parties spun it so that t-mobile's finances, business plan, customer base, network, etc were as weak and unfavorable as possible, and that t-mobile wouldn't survive on their own. The $3b was to be a huge cash infusion to keep investors and customers from fleeing if the merger didn't go through. Who wouldn't pull their investment in a company after seeing pages and pages of affidavits that the company was sure to go bust if they didn't tie up with the competition?

Since both AA and US have said many times that they can go it alone just fine, and neither side is claiming the other is substandard in any way, there's no damage to either company's reputation, hence the AT&T payment isn't really relevant.

perseus11

Oh really, I didn't know that