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US/AA merger- MASTER DISCUSSION THREAD/incl 'when will US leave STAR'

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Old Nov 12, 2013, 2:24 pm
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Last edit by: aztimm
Note:

There is an existing thread in the AA forum that may be useful to US and AA Flyertalkers:
US-AA Merger: Just the Facts thread

As facts become posted, that should be the place to look.

Merger discussion, speculation, and other questions can be directed here, or the similar thread in the AA forum:
MERGER: US and AA 9 Dec 2013 and implications for AA flyers (new)

AA - US Merger Agreement / Announcement / DOJ Action Discussion (consolidated, and now closed to new posts)
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US/AA merger- MASTER DISCUSSION THREAD/incl 'when will US leave STAR'

 
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 9:50 am
  #1366  
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Originally Posted by Superguy
I can understand why crew would the merger to go thru. It's a significant pay raise for the US side.
Exactly. And without the "deep pockets" of AA's premium revenues mentioned by flight62, US may never have sufficient revenues to pay industry-average wages to its pilots and FAs.
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 10:08 am
  #1367  
 
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Originally Posted by Dreamworks
Just out of curiosity, for those US flyers happy that the merger may not happen, how many people are happy because

1) They love Star and don't want to lose the coverage that Star Alliance gives them for redemptions.

2) They love US and the crews and in-flight experience, and are worried that the merger will bring them down

3) They love the US FFP (free upgrades, CP certs) and don't want to go to an AA system (stickers, etc)

I'm just curious, because as an actual BIS flyer and redeemer so far only on US metal (Envoy to MUC) I was looking forward to the new AA fleet with outlets and wifi everywhere and access to the AA Club with showers, etc.
I was beginning to think I was the only one that was looking forward to this merger! I will say though, I mostly fly domestic, and rarely redeem outside of US metal since I don't cross the pond regularly. I am also hostage to US as a PHL based flyer, who is not going to travel to EWR or BWI to travel on other airlines. (I live 10 minutes from PHL).

I do think that the Star Alliance is a much stronger alliance, and wasn't all that jazzed about One World, but in the bigger scheme of things it didn't really affect me that much. I was looking forward to the AA fleet and hopefully some improved service offerings. I was making some assumptions that the sticker system would go away.

I do understand that for those of you who traveling extensively within Star, this road bump is very welcome news.

I guess we will just wait and see!
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 11:04 am
  #1368  
 
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Originally Posted by GNRMatt
What experts? Can you provide links with this?
Yep. The DOJ is 84-1 in winning antitrust suits since 2003. They don't file unless they can win.
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 11:22 am
  #1369  
 
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Originally Posted by edwards183
Yep. The DOJ is 84-1 in winning antitrust suits since 2003. They don't file unless they can win.
How many have they withdrawn/settled?
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 11:36 am
  #1370  
 
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What language in the complaint indicates any interest in settling? The complaint references DCA in one section, but the overall complaint was a full-on broadside on the merits of the merger in toto.

A settlement (IMHO) from DOJ's perspective would be US agrees to take the diamond ring back from AA.
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 11:48 am
  #1371  
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Originally Posted by austin_res
What makes you think AA/US merger would create a better airline? The DoJ document shows statements made by US management that they intend AA/US to be like US Airways - a continuation of US Airways "subpar inflight experience"
^ IMHO, this is a crucial consideration. In the CO/UA merger, the management team (from CO) taking over the combined carrier pretty much maintained the same orientation and practices as before, for better and (mostly) for worse. Especially in view of what we can glean from the DOJ filing and the way Parker has run US to date, there is a great likelihood that a merger would not create a better airline. In fact, with less competition, the things folks don't like about US (and I'm not saying that it's a bad airline in every respect by any means) would be exacerbated.
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 11:54 am
  #1372  
 
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Originally Posted by tacostuff
I'm reading through the DOJ complaint, and it is utterly fascinating to see some of the inner workings of US (e.g., some of the internal e-mails). Douggie really has done/said some things that are going to come back to (hopefully) bite him in the rear:
..
If the DOJ successfully stops this merger from happening, I'm starting to wonder if Parker can survive as leader of an un-merged US. The fallout within the US world could be huge. He will be partially blamed for the failed merger fiasco and could pay the price by losing his job. Thoughts?
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 12:01 pm
  #1373  
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Originally Posted by ITRADE
What language in the complaint indicates any interest in settling? The complaint references DCA in one section, but the overall complaint was a full-on broadside on the merits of the merger in toto.

A settlement (IMHO) from DOJ's perspective would be US agrees to take the diamond ring back from AA.
Nothing in the complaint, but the pro-merger optimists are hanging onto this part of the press conference from Tuesday:

Q. Can you reach a settlement if they agreed to divest Washington National slots?

BAER: If anybody wants to come to us to propose a settlement, we’re always prepared to listen. But our view, looking at the evidence before us, is that the right outcome here a full-stop injunction.
http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2...s-merger.html/

I've read the complaint, the press release and other DoJ materials on the merger and I'm convinced that the merger is toast. AA needs to immediately prepare a new POR and prepare to emerge from Ch 11 independently.
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 12:03 pm
  #1374  
 
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God, does anyone else have images of Steve Wolf in their head right now ("there is no Plan B")..........
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 12:48 pm
  #1375  
 
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So we know the US/AA merger will be delayed or killed, but we are unlikely to know which for a while. But many US/UA codeshares seem to have disappeared - who is to say US won't switch alliances even without the merger? Just a random thought from a not-very-frequent flier who only really cares as it relates to the use of Dividend miles...
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 12:54 pm
  #1376  
 
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Originally Posted by KennyBSAT
So we know the US/AA merger will be delayed or killed, but we are unlikely to know which for a while. But many US/UA codeshares seem to have disappeared - who is to say US won't switch alliances even without the merger? Just a random thought from a not-very-frequent flier who only really cares as it relates to the use of Dividend miles...
I noticed the same thing and that is what concerns me. I didn't want the merger based on the issue of losing *A I hope that they don't switch over to one world regardless
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 12:55 pm
  #1377  
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Originally Posted by KennyBSAT
So we know the US/AA merger will be delayed or killed, but we are unlikely to know which for a while. But many US/UA codeshares seem to have disappeared - who is to say US won't switch alliances even without the merger? Just a random thought from a not-very-frequent flier who only really cares as it relates to the use of Dividend miles...
IMO, there's zero chance of US moving to Oneworld if there's no merger with AA. Here's why:

A US move from Star to Oneworld would require government approval. How likely does anyone think that would be?

Is there any evidence that AA or Oneworld wants US to join Oneworld absent the merger?

Additionally, even if that move were granted, admission of US into the AA/BA/IB immunized joint venture would require government approval? Ignoring the long odds of the joint venture wanting US to join, does anyone think the government would bless this anticompetitive move?

The *A immunized joint venture has excluded US from those reindeer games - so Oneworld would be chomping at the bit to admit US? I'm skeptical.

If the merger falls through, US isn't joining Oneworld.
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 1:00 pm
  #1378  
 
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Originally Posted by FWAAA
IMO, there's zero chance of US moving to Oneworld if there's no merger with AA. Here's why:

...

If the merger falls through, US isn't joining Oneworld.
Makes sense. Thanks, I do hope you're right, and hope the merger suits and appeals don't have a major effect on operations and codeshares.
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 1:04 pm
  #1379  
 
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Originally Posted by PWMTrav
One thing I'm going to miss is flying for free half the time. The merger meant AA was coming to PWM, so I could burn 9000 BA Avios RT to go to DCA or PHL. I could have literally flown those trips for free the entire year, thanks to the magic of Amex MR and Chase UR. Overall, the merger would have saved me money just based on that.
You assume there'd be lots of low award availability, which is all BA can access. Is that necessarily a valid assumption?
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Old Aug 14, 2013, 1:09 pm
  #1380  
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Originally Posted by FWAAA
IMO, there's zero chance of US moving to Oneworld if there's no merger with AA. Here's why:

A US move from Star to Oneworld would require government approval. How likely does anyone think that would be?
So how is US participating in a smaller alliance (OW is #3, ST is #2, *A is #1) with a smaller domestic airline than UA or DL any more anti-competitive than US staying in *A with UA?

I think they could actually do it, and even pull off mutual elite recognition/upgrades if they wanted (AS/DL). The ATI might be trickier, but note that the Advantage fares the DOJ is complaining about are domestic ones...
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