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US/AA merger- MASTER DISCUSSION THREAD/incl 'when will US leave STAR'

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Old Nov 12, 2013, 2:24 pm
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Last edit by: aztimm
Note:

There is an existing thread in the AA forum that may be useful to US and AA Flyertalkers:
US-AA Merger: Just the Facts thread

As facts become posted, that should be the place to look.

Merger discussion, speculation, and other questions can be directed here, or the similar thread in the AA forum:
MERGER: US and AA 9 Dec 2013 and implications for AA flyers (new)

AA - US Merger Agreement / Announcement / DOJ Action Discussion (consolidated, and now closed to new posts)
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US/AA merger- MASTER DISCUSSION THREAD/incl 'when will US leave STAR'

 
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 6:15 pm
  #1321  
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 6,607
Originally Posted by PWMTrav
FFFFF good thing I liquidated my AAMRQ position at 6.65.

Did I mention I was pretty sure this thing was happening?
Great job especially if you picked it up AAMRQ 30 cents a share this time last year


If you made some good cash go back in with a piece of your profits ( now that the stock is down almost 50% ) as the merger is going to go through with some tweaks

In no way can the DOJ justify denying it after letting the previous margers slide
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 6:18 pm
  #1322  
 
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Originally Posted by virtuo0
This is far from over. There is very high chance that US/AA will survive this in the court.

Some minor tweaks and it goes,
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 6:18 pm
  #1323  
 
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Go DOJ! get this blocked.. papa wants some great 100% bonus *A mile redemptions
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 6:20 pm
  #1324  
 
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Originally Posted by flyer4512

In no way can the DOJ justify denying it after letting the previous margers slide

Thats not true at all. A merger analysis is done based on market conditions. When DL/NW merged, there were six network carriers, massive losses, and the likelihood that one or more of the six would die. In 2010 when CO/UA merged, there were five network carriers plus WN and FL. Losses still existed through the industry.

You now have a situation with four network carriers and with WN as a fifth. You would be reducing from four to three.

Simply saying you need to grant our merger because you did it before in different market conditions and with different players completely invalidates why antitrust law and antitrust analysis even exists.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 6:37 pm
  #1325  
 
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Originally Posted by DRUNKinDFW
I'm not disagreeing with the statement above, per se, however, CNBC just ran a graphic displaying capacity by available seat miles, and WN was a very distant fourth (behind UA, DL, and AA) and slightly ahead of US.

(Unfortunately, I'm sitting in a hotel room without DVR functionality, and I couldn't capture the specific figures that they referenced.)
Worldwide WN is a distant fourth. But in domestic US only, it is either No. 2 or No. 3 by available seat miles and is No. 1 in passengers.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 6:56 pm
  #1326  
 
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If I'd wanted to fly American...I'd have already chosen them. The end.

Thus, I am thrilled. And can now book my late fall trips with *A carriers to regain *Gold. ^
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 7:30 pm
  #1327  
 
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Originally Posted by FlyIgglesFly
If I'd wanted to fly American...I'd have already chosen them. The end.
Exactly. The idea that we don't know what a cool route map we would be getting, or how good stickers are, or some such ... not the point.

Tough luck that AA and US waited until a point where DoJ (and states attorneys general) was (were) willing to act, but, yes, there comes a point where if you don't like the cartel, you really don't have anywhere else to go.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 7:44 pm
  #1328  
 
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Star Alliance Upgrades forever!

Hopefully Eric Holder has some cojones.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 8:23 pm
  #1329  
 
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Originally Posted by flyer4512

In no way can the DOJ justify denying it after letting the previous margers slide
Not exactly as the DOJ rules based on the market conditions in the present and future. What happened in the past is not relevant and because a merger was allowed in the past cannot be used as precedence otherwise what is to stop further mergers, or better yet what is to stop all airlines from merging into one single mega airline?

A line has to be drawn somewhere and it should have been drawn with WN and FL if you ask me. Better late then never I suppose.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 8:48 pm
  #1330  
 
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Originally Posted by ITRADE
Thats not true at all. A merger analysis is done based on market conditions. When DL/NW merged, there were six network carriers, massive losses, and the likelihood that one or more of the six would die. In 2010 when CO/UA merged, there were five network carriers plus WN and FL. Losses still existed through the industry.

You now have a situation with four network carriers and with WN as a fifth. You would be reducing from four to three.

Simply saying you need to grant our merger because you did it before in different market conditions and with different players completely invalidates why antitrust law and antitrust analysis even exists.
I'm gonna disagree. I've seen too many insiders/analysts today say: The DoJ just approved the WN and UA buyouts. They knew what would happen. They knew AA would have to bulk up to compete.

If DoJ wanted this killed, they would not have spent months, right up until this week, trying to hammer out a deal with US/AA. DoJ has a plan in mind.

Sink the merger and the fortress hubs will still be there. DoJ is probably after letting the merger go through, but force concessions to bulk up other airlines in the US/AA fortress hubs. Hence making DCA the centerpiece of their complaint today.
jn in ca is offline  
Old Aug 13, 2013, 8:51 pm
  #1331  
 
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Originally Posted by flyer4512

In no way can the DOJ justify denying it after letting the previous margers slide
Actually, if you look at the HHI data in the appendices of the complaint, you'll find that for a great number of city pairs, the merger will drastically harm competition for nearly all consumers. That and each airline's executives wrote before agreeing to merge that they would be profitable as standalone companies (unlike DL in 2007 and debatable with UA in 2010). Also, the elimination of Advantage Pricing nationwide. Put it all together and you have quite the stew brewing to block a merger.

Last edited by flyingmusicianlax; Aug 13, 2013 at 8:56 pm
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 9:20 pm
  #1332  
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
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Originally Posted by Fanjet:21267300
Originally Posted by ITRADE
Its completely relevant. The airline touts customer benefits, increased access, etc. Imposing a continuous stream of ancillary fees is anything but.

In any event, that is but one measure.

The HHI analysis is the real gorilla in this one. Followed by perceived belief in the loss in Advantage fares.
No. Airlines sell airline tickets to transport people from one point to another. The FF programs have nothing to do with that. A contract of carriage doesn't even deal with FF benefits. An airline doesn't even have to have a FF program to operate as an airline. So how an airline operates and manages its FF program should be of no concern to the DOJ.
Advantage Fares, not the AAdvantage program. Totally different aspects of an airline; the DOJ is arguing that the elimination of the former will harm consumers.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 9:25 pm
  #1333  
HNL
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Originally Posted by jn in ca
... Hence making DCA the centerpiece of their complaint today.
I's say the HHI data and the increase in fees and fares were the centerpiece of the complaint filed on 13 August 2013.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 9:31 pm
  #1334  
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Simply saying you need to grant our merger because you did it before in different market conditions and with different players completely invalidates why antitrust law and antitrust analysis even exists.
Fair argument but

The DOJ will eventually be overruled by the courts seeking to protect the interests of this merger competing with the other big three on a slightly slanted lie-flat playing field.

If they really wanted a completely flat-bed level field the government can own and run it just like the Post Office.

Concessions Yes

Stopping the merger No
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 9:56 pm
  #1335  
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It seems the experts are saying this will ultimately happen.

A few years ago, it seemed something similar happened. I don't remember what happened exactly but A and B talked about merger...then C & D did. Then E & F did and that is when the government said no way. None of it happened, I think. Does anyone remember?

It seems even if the merger did not happen, US would move to OneWorld to avoid being squeezed by UA/AC.

Someone who has met DP said that he has a huge ego (which I guess is true for many CEOs) and theorized that he wanted the biggest airline. So, I think he will do all he can to make it happen.

What would work for me is that US is made to sell the CLT hub to UA Of course, that won't happen...
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