GoSh4rks

They've actually left me like a half dozen voicemails - haven't been picking up or returning their calls since I was on vacation, and I need to figure out for myself what I actually want to do. Currently my reservation shows SFO-SIN-BKK.

Kmxu

I checked the IAH-SYD-IAH flights. Currently, it is supposed to restart on Oct. 30, 2022. But economy buckets are zeroed out. For late dates, the economy fare is very high (U class). So, I can assume that the restarting date may slip to December (because economy cabin, PP and Polaris cabins are very empty for a few dates that I checked).

What do you think? I am thinking of proactive change of my long-haul flights to AKL-SFO.

olouie

UA called me to say they are cancelling the IAH-SYD flights. They were super nice and put me on the SFO-AKL directs without any hassles.

Kmxu

when is your trip? My flights (Xmas - NYD) are still on schedule. What worries me most is the availability of ANZ flights (X class) of AKL-WLG and CHC-AKL. I worry less on the return because I can also connect to SYD-LAX/SFO.

olouie

Thanksgiving. Forgot to mention that. But if they will move you onto the direct SFO-AKL flight its nice. Im just going to buy my own connection to CHC because its $50 and more choices.

Kmxu

Thanks!

When UA called you, were your IAH-SYD-IAH flights still on your reservation? I noticed that these flights are not available on certain days of the week. I do not know whether or not they were on daily schedule before.

When I search for economy tickets, UA wants to sell me Premium Plus fare on these flights. This means that they are not selling economy tickets anymore; a hint for cancellation.

So, I will either wait for a few more days or proactively call 1K line.

hirohito888

Yes there was a schedule update, UA is flying 3x weekly IAH-SYD until 13DEC22, then it goes back to 1x daily.

olouie

It was removed. I suspect they will cancel more as time goes on but up in the air for now.

Kmxu

IAH-SYD was supposed to restart on March 26, 2022, after a two-year absence during the pandemic. https://www.businessinsider.com/insi...r-2022-2021-12
I did a mock search for IAH-SYD nonstop, departing on or after Oct, 30, 2022 and returning on Feb, 1, 2023. Here are the fare classes for outbound flight weekly:
10/30, 11/2, 11/4: B;
11/6: H; 11/9, 11/11: B
11/13: U; 11/16, B; 11/18: Y
11/20: U; 11/23, Y, 11/25: H
11/27: H, 11/30: Y, 12/2, H
12/4: O; 12/7: Z; 12/9: O
12/11: C, 12/14, 15, 16, 17 B
12/18, 12/19: E; 12/20, 12/21: W; 12/22: V; 12/23, 12/24: T
There might be a chance that IAH-SYD will restart the week before Christmas. United clearly discourages passengers to purchase IAH-SYD flight before December 20.

Lux Flyer

High fare classes could also be that given the fact it is only operating 3 days a week starting 10/30, that those flights are pretty full. I didn't check as extensively as you did, but when I searched 10/30 the non stop is currently Y7....which at a little under 2 months out is a very full cabin, so no surprise that its only booking into higher fare classes.

escapefromphl

I suspect IAH-SYD won't restart in the short to medium term, due to high fuel prices and weak demand for business travel.

Kmxu

Supposed that jsloan wants to fly to SYD from AUS, connection through SFO is reasonably priced for outbound on October 30 or later (returning on Feb. 1), compared to be consistent M class for AUS-IAH-SYD (Oct 30-Nov 11). When it is priced on U/H class on AUS-IAH-SYD on later dates, AUS-SFO-SYD is priced on W or lower. Is this not a clear indication that UA discourages pax to take IAH-SYD?

Lux Flyer

Yes that is an indication to discourage AUS flyers from booking the routing IAH-SYD if they're looking for the cheapest fare. But that discouragement doesn't necessarily indicate they're going to cancel or eliminate the flight entirely. A flight at Y7 means they're still selilng seats on it in economy, but they're only selling 7 more. That means they've either blocked some seats (in anticipation of an equipment downgauge), to drive sells towards the premium cabins (if economy is abnormally full but premium cabins aren't) or the flight is extremely full already. So the options are you can either take the less convenient routing for the cheaper price going through SFO to what is likely a currently less full flight, or pay the premium for a higher cost routing because that flight is filling up better than expected.

High fare classes for sale don't mean they're planning on eliminating the flight. High fare classes, especially 2+ months out, mean that revenue management is seeing booking data to suggest they don't need to discount the ticket price to get the flight filled. People are buying at the high ticket prices which is why those buckets are the only ones available.

The October/November schedules are pretty well set at this point. It's extremely unlikely they would be outright cancelling a route with planned flights less than 2 months out, barring some crazy circumstance such as loss of ability to use some aircrafts or travel restrictions to a country popping up last minute. And if they were planning to do that, they wouldn't be selling tickets at all on those flights still.

GoSh4rks

UA still has 2x daily SFO-HKG on the schedule starting Oct 31, and it's pretty clear that they aren't going to operate at that frequency. It's not even likely that they do 1x as things currently stand.

HNLbasedFlyer

Unless something changes in Japan, I'm not optimistic about the HNL-NRT restart starting 10/29