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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Nov 15, 2015, 5:18 pm

#316

jjmoore

Join Date: Mar 2013

Location: LBB

Programs: UA 1K 1MM ★G | Marriott LTT | Hilton ♦ | Hertz PC | Global Entry TSA Pre ✓

Posts: 2,820

Quote:

Originally Posted by dls25

Unless you are flying at off-peak times, I would not bother. They only flights I see that do not usually have upgrade lists 30-40 deep are the MSP-IAD flights.

Flew DEN-MSP-DEN a couple times this year... paid first on one and the other was a premium economy fare (M) and I was not upgraded either way (Airbus 320).

Nov 18, 2015, 12:12 pm

#317

n0r1

Join Date: Nov 2010

Location: San Francisco

Posts: 14

1k: Will my LHR-SFO upgrade come through, and when?

I'm Premier 1k (117,566 miles for the year so far). I'm flying LHR-SFO this Sunday on a flight that has 2 seats left in First and 6 in Business. I'm ticketed in Economy Plus (L class), and have requested an upgrade to Business using 20k miles + $550. I called, and it sounds like there are 8 total 1k's on the upgrade list.

Two questions:

What are my chances of the upgrade coming through? That is, what is order within the 1k bucket based on?
If it were to come through, when?

I reread the "Premier Benefits" page, and it says that CPUs can come through for 1k's as early as 96 hours in advance, but doesn't mention non-complimentary ones.

Thanks for any insight! This is especially important, because if my upgrade comes through, I'll turn around and give it straight to my husband, who has a herniated disk and for whom flying in economy in excruciating these days. :/

Nov 18, 2015, 12:18 pm

#318

seenitall

Join Date: Oct 2009

Programs: All of them, UA-Plat, 1MM*G

Posts: 881

My experience is that Miles+$s upgrades can come through at any time between ticketing and a few hours before boarding. It all depends on when UA decides that your offer of 20k miles plus $550 is more than they are going to get from that seat from someone else.

Nov 18, 2015, 12:22 pm

#319

Adrock1976

Join Date: Jan 2013

Location: SYD

Programs: UA 1K, SPG LT Gold

Posts: 36

Any GS or 1K in a higher fare category will clear before you. And a "L" fare is a rather low economy fare. This is the pecking order for economy:

Y, B, M, E, U, H, Q, V, W, S, T, L, K, G, N

I also have found that LHR to the west coast, especially, is a very tough upgrade. I would imagine there are many others likely in high fare classes than you who may get the upgrade.

Also, people could switch flights and take a business class seat, who has paid full fare.

It can clear all the way up until departure.

Good luck

Nov 18, 2015, 12:26 pm

#320

IADFlyer123

Join Date: Oct 2013

Location: WAS/ BOM

Programs: UA 1K, Marriott Gold, HHonors Gold

Posts: 1,567

Quote:

Originally Posted by n0r1

What are my chances of the upgrade coming through? That is, what is order within the 1k bucket based on?
If it were to come through, when?

Answer to Q1 - The number will depend on how many GS and 1Ks have higher fare classes above you. With L, you are really low on the totem pole. Many GS's or business travelers could buy a last minute fare, thereby reducing the number of upgrade seats available. So every 1K who has a fare-class higher than L will be above you in the list. You might actually get an offer to upgrade for cash during your 24-hour check in period or mobile app or kiosk. These offers will range anywhere between $550 and whatever floats UA's boat! Also remember, LHR and SFO are big business traveler hubs and reaching California on Sunday makes it an appealing route especially for those trying to begin work on Monday

Nov 18, 2015, 12:42 pm

#321

lhrsfo

FlyerTalk Evangelist

Join Date: Jan 2009

Location: London & Sonoma CA

Programs: UA 1K, MM *G for life, BAEC Gold

Posts: 10,227

The other aspect at the moment is the LH strikes. These flights at the moment are generally not full but on LH strike days they are rammed. There's no sense in UA tieing up a C seat in advance if they might need it.

Nov 18, 2015, 2:21 pm

#322

IAH-OIL-TRASH

FlyerTalk Evangelist

Join Date: Sep 2003

Location: Honolulu Harbor

Programs: UA 1K

Posts: 15,028

Quote:

Originally Posted by n0r1

I reread the "Premier Benefits" page, and it says that CPUs can come through for 1k's as early as 96 hours in advance, but doesn't mention non-complimentary ones.

That has nothing to do with when you'll get an upgrade. Those upgrade windows only apply to CPUs.

You are behind all GSs. You're also behind any 1Ks on higher fares. The fare sequence is Y, B, M, E, U, H, Q, V, W, S, T, L, K, G, N. L is below the minimum fare to waitlist with GPUs, so there are probably a few of those ahead of you. I'd say your chances are less than 1 in 3.

Nov 18, 2015, 10:04 pm

#323

EmailKid

Moderator: Budget Travel forum & Credit Card Programs, FlyerTalk Evangelist

Join Date: Aug 2002

Location: YYJ/YVR and back on Van Isle ....... for now

Programs: UA lifetime MM / *A Gold

Posts: 14,429

Quote:

Originally Posted by seenitall

My experience is that Miles+$s upgrades can come through at any time between ticketing and a few hours before boarding.

It can also happen at the gate, and even inside the plane after boarding.

That did not happen to me, and only saw it once (maybe twice, or maybe I dreamt it), but a pax came from back to Biz after everyone boarded. Misconnects and no shows happen ... had it happen on a domestic flight Saturday. I was settled in to my seat signing Hemispheres mag, #3 on u/g list, when an agent said my name

That would be #3 at the gate with ALL FC pax checked in ... no biggie, short DFW-IAH hop in the morning .... this was A320, the week before there were THREE empty seats in FC on B738 .....

Nov 19, 2015, 6:10 am

#324

n0r1

Join Date: Nov 2010

Location: San Francisco

Posts: 14

Thanks, all! Really helpful. I've gone ahead and purchased the upgrade outright.

One more question: It sounds like fare class is definitely a factor in where you land on the upgrade status list. Correct?

Nov 19, 2015, 12:29 pm

#325

findark

FlyerTalk Evangelist

Join Date: Nov 2014

Location: MSP

Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found

Posts: 14,424

Quote:

Originally Posted by n0r1

Thanks, all! Really helpful. I've gone ahead and purchased the upgrade outright.

One more question: It sounds like fare class is definitely a factor in where you land on the upgrade status list. Correct?

Yes, it's a pretty big factor. You can read the wiki here for info, or to save you a click, the upgrade list is, briefly:

- All GS by any method
- Premier "Instant Upgrades" (Y/B/M ups), by fare class first and then by status (only CPU eligible routes)
- Instrument supported upgrades, by status first and then fare class
- CPUs, by status first and then fare class (if applicable)

So fare class is the second most important factor in most cases after your status.

Last edited by findark; Nov 19, 2015 at 1:46 pm Reason: clarify for int'l flights

Nov 23, 2015, 10:24 pm

#326

TennisNoob

Join Date: Sep 2013

Location: IAH

Programs: Marriott Plat, Hyatt Globalist, DL Plat, UA Silver

Posts: 4,043

I ticketed 3 PAX including myself. 2 are non-premier members.

I requested I class since only XN was avail on the short haul trip (UA Metal IAH-LAX) . Trip was booked as longhaul F for 3.

Are they going to be applied to the upgrade list the day on departure or will I need to request the gate agent to do that?

Thanks in advanced.

Nov 24, 2015, 4:10 pm

#327

WineCountryUA

Moderator: United Airlines

Join Date: Jun 2007

Location: SFO

Programs: UA Plat 1.997MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat

Posts: 66,859

Quote:

Originally Posted by TennisNoob

Waitlisting for I/IN at the gate is iffy == most agents are unaware of the option / process. I'm 0 for 2 even getting on the gate list.

A separate thread exists for this topic, http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...ns-issues.html.

Nov 30, 2015, 10:18 am

#328

gcashin

Join Date: Oct 2012

Location: YYC

Programs: AC SE

Posts: 2,343

Thoughts on chances for this clearing:
- RPU for 2 pax on LIH-LAX for Sunday, January 31 currently waitlisted
- One pax is UA 1K; other is RPU nominee (no UA status; *G on OAL)
- Currently showing F6; E+ is fairly empty, so at least it doesn't look like there are a ton of high status pax booked now. That being said, I'm guessing there will be a ton of RPU's on the list for Jan 31

Any thoughts on odds at this point? I'm guessing fairly low, but wondering if others have experience on this route or similar flights.

Nov 30, 2015, 10:25 am

#329

transportprof

Join Date: Mar 2012

Programs: Mileage Plus 1K; Marriott Platinum; Hilton Gold

Posts: 6,355

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcashin

I've done it on the 757, but only by splitting the PNRs in advance of travel. That produced one RPU clearing at T-24 and one at the gate. If you're on the same PNR and thus require R=2, you'll get skipped over by others for sure.

Nov 30, 2015, 10:32 am

#330

Kacee

A FlyerTalk Posting Legend

Join Date: Apr 2013

Location: PHX

Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)

Posts: 56,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcashin

LIH-LAX for Sunday, January 31 currently waitlisted

738 red-eye? I'd connect via HNL on the 772.