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-   -   Local lockdowns in the UK (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/u-k-ireland/2025295-local-lockdowns-uk.html)

lhrsfo Jan 26, 2021 3:06 am

It's intriguing that Germany/ the EU are objecting strongly to the UK's supply of AZ vaccines being far greater than the EU's (and using this to "justify" cutting off the UK's supply of Pfizer), and at the same time saying that the AZ data is suspect. Clearly they are thrashing around, trying to make as much noise as possible, to distract from their abject failure in vaccine procurement. In both Macron's and Merkel's minds, as they hang on tenuously to their grip on power and with their legacies looking in ruins, it's the equivalent of dropping a dead cat in the middle of the conference table.

It's sad to see that operating a high tech plant in Germany is becoming similar to operating one in a banana republic.

Internaut Jan 26, 2021 3:43 am


Originally Posted by lhrsfo (Post 32995113)
It's intriguing that Germany/ the EU are objecting strongly to the UK's supply of AZ vaccines being far greater than the EU's (and using this to "justify" cutting off the UK's supply of Pfizer), and at the same time saying that the AZ data is suspect. Clearly they are thrashing around, trying to make as much noise as possible, to distract from their abject failure in vaccine procurement. In both Macron's and Merkel's minds, as they hang on tenuously to their grip on power and with their legacies looking in ruins, it's the equivalent of dropping a dead cat in the middle of the conference table.

It's sad to see that operating a high tech plant in Germany is becoming similar to operating one in a banana republic.

The UK has simply proved more nimble, prepared to take calculated risks and do deals based on unknowns and throw a lot of money it doesn't have around. History may well say that, with COVID-19, fortune favoured the bold. What "anonymous sources" have briefed German papers is a worry though. Even if (as seems likely) untrue they damage confidence in the vaccination programme both here and abroad.

Internaut Jan 26, 2021 4:05 am

From the Twatsphere - the German government apparently clarified:


13901 Jan 26, 2021 5:36 am

Today we have learned that ze Germans aren't to be trusted with numbers, the Dutch are rioting with such abandon not seen since the times of Greece's debt crisis and as for Britain, well, I'm sure we can find something on Boris or Hancock or Priti (if not, there's still the fish).

I can basically troll all my colleagues :D

However, leaving jingoism and my infantility aside, here's a good summary of issues in the EU sourcing of vaccines at the moment:


What's the problem?

The EU approved the purchase of 300 million doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in December. But the company was not able to supply the 12.5 million vaccines it promised the EU by the end of 2020, due to supply chain issues.

The head of BioNTech, Uğur Şahin, told the German magazine Der Spiegel, that the delay was caused because the EU wrongly assumed that several different vaccines would be ready at once and therefore spread its orders. He also said his company was ramping up its manufacturing capacity.

Other countries that have so far been more successful in vaccinating their populations approved the Moderna or Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine as well.

The EU has now approved the Moderna jab and is doubling its order of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to 600m doses.

But vaccinations in parts of Europe have had to be paused after Pfizer temporarily cut deliveries to increase capacity at its processing plant in Belgium.

[...]


What is the row over the Astrazeneca vaccine?

Supply problems have also been announced by Astrazeneca, provoking criticism from the EU after hearing it would receive a reduced number of vaccines.

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is expected to approve the Astrazeneca vaccine, developed with Oxford University, this month. The EU signed a deal for 300 million doses in August.



But last week the UK-Swedish pharmaceutical firm announced that due to "reduced yields at a manufacturing site within our European supply chain" the number of initial doses for EU members would be lower.

The EU has warned that it could tighten the export of vaccines produced in the bloc. This could affect the UK, as Pfizer's Belgian plant supplies the UK.

The EU placed export controls on personal protective equipment in March 2020 that lasted for about two months. It said it was making sure member states had enough supplies by requiring the authorisation of sales outside the bloc.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52380823

ahmetdouas Jan 26, 2021 7:12 am


Originally Posted by 13901 (Post 32995250)
Today we have learned that ze Germans aren't to be trusted with numbers, the Dutch are rioting with such abandon not seen since the times of Greece's debt crisis and as for Britain, well, I'm sure we can find something on Boris or Hancock or Priti (if not, there's still the fish).

I can basically troll all my colleagues :D

However, leaving jingoism and my infantility aside, here's a good summary of issues in the EU sourcing of vaccines at the moment:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52380823

Boris speaking at 17:00 UK.
he is bringing in NHS England Director so except at least some focus on vaccine fiasco

HB7 Jan 26, 2021 7:58 am

Meeting on hotel quarantine now to happen tonight and likely announced tomorrow it seems according to the BBC and Sky.

ahmetdouas Jan 26, 2021 8:17 am


Originally Posted by HB7 (Post 32995544)
Meeting on hotel quarantine now to happen tonight and likely announced tomorrow it seems according to the BBC and Sky.

It’s already a foregone conclusion for high risk areas the rest is how it’s dealt with. The bigger issue now is vaccine deliveries, it has gone to number one on the domestic priority list. I don’t expect any announcements on lockdown lifting until a week before Feb 15 or so, but the preliminary news from Israel is extremely good regarding vaccines so just need to be patient now.

Internaut Jan 26, 2021 8:22 am


Originally Posted by ahmetdouas (Post 32995562)
It’s already a foregone conclusion for high risk areas the rest is how it’s dealt with. The bigger issue now is vaccine deliveries, it has gone to number one on the domestic priority list. I don’t expect any announcements on lockdown lifting until Feb 15 or so, but the preliminary news from Israel is extremely good regarding vaccines.

I'm waiting on Welsh, Scottish and NI death tol for today, and I'm hoping the aggregate is somewhat lower than last Tuesday. And I'll be doing the same Wednesday and Thursday (and again next week). Given who this disease kills, I'm hoping we see the death figures drop off a cliff in the next 2-3 weeks. This would be in stark contrast to the curve we saw towards the end of lockdown 1, pointing to vaccines saving the most vulnerable lives right now. I think Israel is pretty much already there, but I understand they've gone Pfizer only; no idea if that makes a difference.

ahmetdouas Jan 26, 2021 8:39 am


Originally Posted by Internaut (Post 32995587)
I'm waiting on Welsh, Scottish and NI death tol for today, and I'm hoping the aggregate is somewhat lower than last Tuesday. And I'll be doing the same Wednesday and Thursday (and again next week). Given who this disease kills, I'm hoping we see the death figures drop off a cliff in the next 2-3 weeks. This would be in stark contrast to the curve we saw towards the end of lockdown 1, pointing to vaccines saving the most vulnerable lives right now. I think Israel is pretty much already there, but I understand they've gone Pfizer only; no idea if that makes a difference.

Wales today Tuesday: 570 new cases (1106 last week), 8 Deaths (8 Last week)
Scotland today: 1049 new cases (1165 last week), 87 deaths (71 last week)
Northern Ireland today: 550 new cases (713 last week), 16 deaths (24 last week)

Internaut Jan 26, 2021 8:46 am


Originally Posted by ahmetdouas (Post 32995618)
Wales today Tuesday: 570 new cases (1106 last week), 8 Deaths (8 Last week)
Scotland today: 1049 new cases (1165 last week), 87 deaths (71 last week)
Northern Ireland today: 550 new cases (713 last week), 16 deaths (24 last week)

And Guardian reports 877 deaths in England, so 968. Last Tuesday (Worldometers): 1610. Blips are things and I think we've all learned to be a little wary by now but hopefully we see this turning into a trend.

ahmetdouas Jan 26, 2021 8:49 am


Originally Posted by Internaut (Post 32995625)
And Guardian reports 877 deaths in England, so 968. Last Tuesday (Worldometers): 1610. Blips are things and I think we've all learned to be a little wary by now but hopefully we see this turning into a trend.

It's obvious, cases falling rapidly, hospitalisations sustained fall, and deaths just starting to fall. Unless cases randomly start increasing, this trend will continue.

HB7 Jan 26, 2021 9:55 am


Originally Posted by ahmetdouas (Post 32995634)
It's obvious, cases falling rapidly, hospitalisations sustained fall, and deaths just starting to fall. Unless cases randomly start increasing, this trend will continue.

Deaths are not falling. 1,631 reported today - higher than Tuesday last week.

ahmetdouas Jan 26, 2021 9:59 am


Originally Posted by HB7 (Post 32995747)
Deaths are not falling. 1,631 reported today - higher than Tuesday last week.

Cases are and that is the most important metric. (no cases, no deaths). 20,089 cases, quite a bit lower than last Tuesday ( 33,355). That's the lowest for almost 2 months.

KARFA Jan 26, 2021 10:06 am

If the priority is to stop the health service being overwhelmed, then cases is less important than daily admissions and total people in hospital. You can view these figures here

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

It is clear numbers appear to be starting to fall but we are still at around 38k in hospital which is nearly double the peak last year in mid April of about 21k. This is going to take a few weeks just to fall below the 2020 peak, never mind to a level which is more like those seen last summer.

There are signs of going in the right direction on cases/admissions/deaths, but I am afraid any let up on restrictions before end of February at the earliest looks extremely remote.

HB7 Jan 26, 2021 10:25 am

I think cases falling is a great sign and we all hope it keeps falling drastically. But until deaths and hospitalizations drop significantly, nothing will be eased. If restrictions begin easing in March I'd say that is a good result.

Vaccine is the other important item that needs to continue at a high rate, although vaccine supply may soon be a big concern.


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