Not sure how well this will post but I'll try, essentially Mark Harper of CRG is questioning some of the data assumptions that went into the models to give us the roadmap, saying it is incorrect, supporting his view the dates should be brought forward, at least there seems to be some questioning of the data and dates which will keep the pressure up on BJ if the numbers continue improving.

It seems to me all the Government/scientific advisors are “guilty” of doing is planning on a conservative set of assumptions that mean the downside risk (not hitting the target) is smaller than the upside risk (going early).

Leaving aside the fact that this inherent conservatism is presumably a core tenet of anything medical (they aren’t picking the best case scenario or even the central case), from a political perspective after all the promises made and not kept over the last year, surely you give them a bit of credit for trying to manage expectations when there is little historic credibility in the bank?

Posters keep referring to the cost of lockdown, which is immense and will be a burden on taxpayers for years to come. But I’d be pretty sure the cost of extending this lockdown to gain a even higher confidence in its ultimate success is a magnitude lower than opening prematurely and running the risk of having to lockdown again unexpectedly in the near future. This is what the business community want, certainty. What you have just posted, gives less certainty.

I agree.

I want this lockdown to be done with, I want to travel, I want to enter a shop without having to queue and I don't want to hear the phrase "protect the NHS" again in my entire life... but I think we mustn't rush in this.

Do people remember what happened in London when we were (senselessly) allowed to open up shops, restaurants and pubs for two weeks in December? We also had His Mopness accusing Labour of "wanting to cancel Christmas". Well, lo and behold we had 000s of avoidable deaths, thousands of cases and the lockdown. All because we were hasty. An extra couple of weeks won't change the massive bill that previous errors is already costing us.

I'm itching to travel and go abroad to see family I haven't seen in ages, however, I'm happy with the current roadmap assuming it is the last one and international travel can begin May 17th. Obviously this is dependent on a number of factors, so we will just have to wait.

I think it is important to remember, for myself as much as anyone that we are still locked out from the EU and many other countries (effectively all of Asia, Australia and Nth America) - so traveling abroad may be more down to those countries accepting us and bringing their case loads down (France for example had 31k cases today).

What does sicken me though is people like Priti Patel saying today that "it is far to early to even think about booking summer trips". I don't think Boris Johnson will be happy hearing that. Everyone knows the risk of booking travel and most people plan trips 3 - 6 months in advance anyway. Having that type of messaging doesn't make any sense and completely goes against what the messaging should be now, which is stick to the rules and plan if you like, but have a fall back and make sure you book with someone where you can easily get your money back or travel voucher.

Forgive me, but I am a bit confused. You are citing a reference from Guido Fawkes to an article from the German equivalent of the Daily Star. What's the point you are making?

What's wrong with Guido Fawkes? Let's do DailyMail then. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-success.html

And Bild is Europe's best selling newspaper!

What's wrong with Guido Fawkes? It's tiresome controversialism - one step away from Brendan O'Neill or Katie Hopkins. And Bild really is a hateful rag respected by no one.

People are entitled to different opinions on the pace of reopening and it's good to hear them. I've enjoyed reading the perspectives that people have brought to the issues on the site and the evidential sources people have referred to have been helpful. However, in my view, citing such low grade sources add very little light, only noise. What next, references to Breitbart or the Canary?

Remember, November was portrayed as a scientist-instigated "circuit breaker" to "save Christmas". It was the scientist's idea, and they sold it to Boris with charts and figures they knew to be out of date and plainly wrong (and then leaked it to the press to bounce Boris into it). It's no wonder people decided to make the most of the pubs and restaurants after November, because everyone knew it was just a matter of time before they would be arbitrarily shut. Plus then, after this drama, no-one was seriously going to pay any attention to the Christmas diktats.

The scientists have not, and can not, see the big picture, and giving them so much power probably accounts for a decent fraction of our "world beating" death rate.

It isn't slackening off, it shouldn't slacken off - and as long as the logistics hold up it won't slacken off for some considerable time. Second-dosers will take up the slack as the pool requiring a first dose is exhausted, and the next phase begins.

The notion of an interval imminent, when the pace of vaccination can be relaxed, is flawed. Yet you continue to promote it.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...ab403f2d59.png

Let's roll the clock back to what we were told by the experts, and why people are a little miffed about this constant need to lockdown, roadmap or not. I can recall words from the briefings early on that said "until there's a vaccine", or "when there's a vaccine", so it is little wonder that the sentiment and mood is changing:

Chris Whitty: Social distancing measures likely in place until next year, Wednesday 22 April 2020 6:53 pm

I suspect that they would like to place some of these comments in the memory hole.

I don't really understand your point. It seems to me that Chris Whitty was absolutely correct when he said that restrictions would probably be in place for a year, and that the vaccine was the key to lifting the lockdown. Which part of what he said are you taking issue with?

The “exit” doesn’t come with the development of a vaccine, it comes when herd immunity is achieved through successful delivery. And given the interest in international travel in this parish, achieving sufficient vaccinations on a global basis is years away. The WHO have consistently said COVID will be endemic for years. And given the vaccine skepticism in some countries (in both developed and developing nations) there is a long road ahead.

My comment there should have said 'you will not need to be giving hundreds of thousands of people a second dose'.

It goes without saying that, besides having a vaccine, this also needs to be deployed...

Folks,

I've deleted a few messages. Please remember this is the UK & Ireland Coronavirus thread - wider discussion of UK politics is for OMNI/PR.

stut
Moderator
UK & Ireland